Intensive Strike Campaign on Dnipropetrovsk: (1630Z, Dnipropetrovsk ODA, HIGH) Local officials report 60 distinct enemy attacks across the oblast (Nikopol, Pavlohrad, Kryvyi Rih) in a single day, targeting critical infrastructure.
New Shahed Axis toward Kyiv: (1630Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Loitering munitions (BPLA) detected in central Chernihiv Oblast on a south-westerly course, suggesting a multi-axis saturation attempt on the capital.
Deep Sabotage in Kostroma: (1651Z, Tsaplienko/Svoboda Rossii, MEDIUM) Ukrainian-aligned partisans claim the destruction of a communication transformer in Galich, Kostroma Oblast (approx. 400km NE of Moscow), specifically targeting RU military unit connectivity.
Grid Recovery Timeline: (1636Z, PM Shmyhal, HIGH) Repairs to TPP-5 and TPP-6 are projected for completion within 48 hours; however, secondary strikes remain the primary risk to this timeline.
RU Counter-Information Operation: (1639Z, RusVesna, LOW) Russian sources are highlighting Der Spiegel reports of German understaffing in Lithuania, likely a narrative to exploit perceived NATO weakness.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Operational Picture)
The conflict is entering a critical 48-hour window where the intersection of extreme weather (-27°C) and energy infrastructure resilience will determine civil stability in Kyiv and Dnipro.
Northern/Central Axis: The detection of Shaheds in Chernihiv (1630Z) moving SW, combined with the earlier southern wave (1603Z), indicates a "pincer" drone strike designed to saturate air defenses (AD) before the expected heavy missile wave from GRAU arsenals.
Dnipropetrovsk Sector: The 60-strike barrage on Pavlohrad and Kryvyi Rih (1630Z) suggests an effort to interdict the logistics hubs supporting the Pokrovsk and Zaporozhye fronts. Damage to "critical infrastructure" here directly impedes rail electrification and heavy equipment maintenance.
Russian Rear: The sabotage in Kostroma (1651Z) indicates that UA-aligned elements are successfully operating behind the "internal security" screen of the FSB, targeting C2 nodes rather than just energy assets.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Course of Action (Tactical): In the Zaporozhye region, the Russian "Vostok" group has transitioned to sniper-supported assault tactics in snow-covered terrain (1630Z, MoD RU). This suggests an attempt to pick off Ukrainian observation posts (OPs) under cover of poor visibility and cold-weather white-out conditions.
Hybrid Operations: The Russian effort to illicitly register Starlink terminals via Ukrainian civilians (1637Z, SBU) remains a high-priority threat. This is a tactical adaptation to secure high-bandwidth C2 that Russian domestic systems (Volnovod) currently fail to provide.
Internal Stability: The dismissal of the Mayor of Serdobsk (1652Z) following a nationalist backlash over housing for migrants highlights sensitive domestic fissures. The Kremlin remains vulnerable to "ultra-patriot" criticism regarding social spending during wartime.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Active Defense: Ukrainian units in the "Vostok" sector are conducting high-intensity counterattacks (9 repelled according to RU claims, 1630Z). This indicates that despite the cold, the UAF is maintaining a "mobile defense" rather than static entrenchment.
Strategic Resilience: The 48-hour repair window for TPP-5/6 is the current operational priority. Air Defense assets are likely being repositioned to provide "point defense" over these repair sites.
Resistance Reach: The "Svoboda Rossii" strike in Kostroma demonstrates an expanding geographic footprint for kinetic sabotage, forcing RU MoD to divert Rosgvardia assets from the occupied territories to the Russian interior.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
NATO Narrative Exploitation: Russian propaganda is focusing on German military shortfalls (1639Z) to signal to the US that European partners are "unreliable," coinciding with reports of Russian memos targeting the incoming Trump administration (1647Z).
Domestic Satire: Internal Russian sentiment shows signs of cynicism regarding potential Telegram blocks (1648Z), with milbloggers using humor to highlight the military's total dependence on the platform for C2.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A massive integrated strike (Shahed + Cruise/Ballistic) within 06-12 hours. The Chernihiv and Kherson drone waves are the "shaping" phase meant to exhaust AD interceptor stocks.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated ballistic strike on Dnipro and Kyiv during the peak of the thermal plant repair work (next 24 hours), aimed at permanently disabling the turbines and causing a "death freeze" in urban centers.
Timeline: Expected impact of the current Shahed wave in the Kyiv/Central region: 1900Z–2100Z.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
[CRITICAL] Identify the current location of RU Black Sea Fleet Be-12 aircraft. Are they being used for anti-sabotage or as unconventional radar pickets for the current strike wave?
[HIGH] Confirm if the Kostroma transformer strike (1651Z) has resulted in localized C2 blackouts for the RU 1st Guards Tank Army elements.
[MEDIUM] Monitor recruitment levels for the "International Legion" integration. Determine if command-and-control improvements are translating to higher survival rates in the Vostok sector counterattacks.
