Deep Strike Confirmation (Ukhta): (0840Z, Tsaplienko; 0854Z, TASS/ASTRA, HIGH) Drone impact and subsequent fire confirmed at the Lukoil refinery in Ukhta (Komi Republic). This solidifies the UAF’s 1,500km strike radius capability.
Energy Infrastructure Degradation: (0833Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH) Major destruction reported at a DTEK substation in Odesa region following missile/drone strikes. In contrast, emergency outages have been lifted in Dnipropetrovsk (0845Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
UAF Air Defense (PPO) Reorganization: (0829Z, GS UAF; 0844Z, Syrskyi, HIGH) C-in-C Syrskyi announced a structural shift, creating a dedicated "protective force" to separate strategic infrastructure defense from front-line SAM assets. Current interception efficiency is rated at 74%.
RU Force Modernization: (0831Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM) Russian state media documented the delivery of a new batch of BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles to frontline units.
Strategic Defensive Success (Sloviansk): (0856Z, Liveuamap/GS UAF, HIGH) UAF successfully repelled 12 breakthrough attempts in the Zakitne-Dronivka sector, countering the "ice-bridge" vulnerability identified in the previous 24h report.
Olympic Diplomatic Exclusion: (0835Z, ASTRA; 0837Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH) The IOC has officially disqualified Ukrainian skeleton athlete Vladyslav Heraskevych. This will likely serve as a central pillar for Ukrainian information operations regarding international neutrality bias.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Operational Picture)
The battlefield remains shaped by extreme cold, though UAF has stabilized the critical river crossings at Zakitne. RU aviation has significantly increased its sortie rate, utilizing the clear skies following the snow to conduct saturation strikes across the Southern and Dnipropetrovsk sectors.
Northern / Kharkiv Sector: Intense fighting persists near Vovchansk with nine RU breakthrough attempts reported in the last 24h. RU is attempting to fix UAF forces in the north to prevent reinforcement of the Donbas (0856Z, Liveuamap).
Eastern Sector (Sloviansk/Lyman): The most contested ground is currently around Zakitne and Drobysheve. UAF's successful repulsion of 12 attacks at Zakitne indicates the defensive line has adjusted to the frozen Siverskyi Donets river conditions (0856Z, GS UAF).
Southern Sector: Significant RU aviation activity. Over 15 settlements across Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk were targeted by airstrikes, suggesting a preparation for localized ground assaults (0856Z, Liveuamap).
Sumy Direction:UNCONFIRMED reports from RU sources claim minor tactical gains near Andriivka and Mala Korchakovka (0840Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Logistics & Sustainment: The delivery of new BMP-3s (0831Z) suggests RU is successfully replacing heavy armor losses, though the quality of crews for these new vehicles remains an intelligence gap.
Aviation Tactics: RU is employing a "saturation" model in the south, combining Shahed UAVs (36 destroyed by Southern Command) with tactical airstrikes to overwhelm local PPO (0855Z, Southern Defense Forces).
Strategic Intent: Russia’s official refusal to attend the "Peace Council" (0853Z, Zakharova/TASS) confirms a lack of intent for diplomatic de-escalation in the 0-6 month window.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture: UAF is moving toward a more specialized Air Defense structure. By separating "Zenith" (missile) units from the new infrastructure protection force, Syrskyi aims to conserve high-end interceptors (Patriot/IRIS-T) for ballistic threats while using "interceptor drones" for Shahed-type targets (0849Z, Syrskyi).
Operational Success: Southern Defense Forces report high attrition of RU assets: 177 personnel and 27 artillery systems neutralized in the last 24h (0855Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Disinformation: RU channels are circulating images of a transformer fire in Kyiv (0838Z, Basurin) to amplify the narrative of an "unprotected" capital. This contrasts with Syrskyi's 74% effectiveness report.
International Framing: RU media is leveraging German naval quotes and US carrier movements in the Middle East (0831Z, 0836Z) to frame the war as a global NATO-led escalation, likely to distract from the Ukhta refinery strike.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Outlook)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will continue high-intensity KAB/airstrike operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector to exploit the current weather window. BDA teams (drones/HUMINT) will prioritize the Odesa substation site to determine if a follow-up strike is required to permanently sever the regional grid.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated long-range strike combining the "Quiet Depot" missile inventory with the newly delivered Geran drones targeting the newly identified "reallocation" points of Ukrainian PPO.
Timeline: Next 6-12 hours will likely see a renewed Shahed wave originating from southern launch sites (Primorsko-Akhtarsk) targeting Odesa's weakened energy nodes.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
[CRITICAL] Assess the operational status of the Ukhta Refinery. If the atmospheric distillation unit is hit, it signifies a long-term disruption of RU fuel logistics for the Northern Fleet/Arctic units.
[HIGH] Verify RU claims of advances in Sumy (Andriivka). If confirmed, this indicates a widening of the active front.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the deployment of the new BMP-3 batch. Identify which divisions are receiving these units to determine RU's prioritized axis of advance.
[MEDIUM] BDA on the Odesa DTEK substation to estimate time-to-repair and impact on Southern Command logistics.
