Strategic Sabotage (Moscow): (0800Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM) A targeted explosion occurred at the parking lot of the Russian Presidential Administration’s "Main Research and Computing Center" (FGUP) during heavy snowfall. Firefighting operations were documented; target significance is high for RU C2 and state administration.
Deep Strike Confirmation (Ukhta): (0815Z, TASS; 0823Z, ASTRA, HIGH) Drone attack on the Lukoil Oil Refinery in Ukhta (Komi Republic) confirmed. Residents filmed drones in flight before impact. This extends the verified strike range to ~1,500km, targeting critical energy processing.
Energy Grid Criticality: (0809Z, Operativnyi ZSU/Ukrenergo, HIGH) Following a combined overnight missile/drone strike, power outages are confirmed across Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa.
Counter-Intelligence Success: (0800Z, SBU/Gen Prosecutor, HIGH) Two FSB agents were detained in Kyiv. They were tasked with mapping military deployments and airfields, highlighting ongoing RU HUMINT pressure on the capital.
Tactical Counter-Tech Ops: (0759Z, NM DNR, MEDIUM) RU 68th Recon Battalion claims the use of FPV drones to specifically target Ukrainian ground drones (UGVs) and Starlink terminals in the Toretsk/Vesyoloe sector.
Olympic Diplomatic Flashpoint: (0813Z, TASS; 0819Z, Sternenko, HIGH) Ukrainian skeleton athlete Vladyslav Heraskevych was disqualified from the 2026 Winter Olympics for using a helmet commemorating fallen Ukrainian soldiers. This is likely to be utilized in the information domain to bolster domestic resolve/narratives of international bias.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern / Kyiv Sector:
Grid stability has deteriorated since the 0740Z report. Ukrenergo confirms active blackouts in the city and region (0809Z). The detention of two FSB agents (0800Z) suggests RU is attempting to refine targeting data for follow-up strikes on air defense sites and airfields.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Kharkiv):
Toretsk/Vesyoloe: RU is prioritizing the destruction of UAF technical enablers. Reports of FPV strikes on Starlink and UGVs (0759Z) indicate a tactical shift toward degrading UAF's remote-control capabilities and battlefield connectivity.
North Kharkiv: (0808Z, UAF AF, HIGH) RU tactical aviation has initiated a new wave of Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes. This suggests sustained pressure on northern defensive lines and logistical hubs.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Aviation Activity: (0817Z, UAF AF, HIGH) New KAB launches reported targeting Zaporizhzhia. This follows earlier reports of RU ISR-strike loops (Lancets) being highly active in the sector.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: RU continues to leverage its tactical aviation (KABs) and long-range missile/drone mix to degrade the UA energy grid. The internal focus on recruiting for the "Ural Drone Factory" (0800Z) and crisis psychologists (0801Z) points to a long-term mobilization of both industrial and social resources.
Vulnerabilities: The explosion at the Presidential Research and Computing Center in Moscow (0800Z) indicates significant gaps in RU domestic security at high-value installations.
Adaptation: The targeted hunting of Starlink terminals and UGVs in Toretsk indicates RU reconnaissance units (68th ORB) are adapting to UAF's reliance on unmanned systems and satellite comms.
Digital Fragility: Reports of Apple blocking RU accounts (0809Z) and the ongoing "Telegram ban" controversy (0803Z) suggest RU is facing increasing friction in its domestic tech and communication environment.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Reach: UAF (or affiliated groups) demonstrated a significant leap in reach/coordination with the Ukhta refinery strike and the Moscow sabotage event.
Security Posture: SBU remains highly effective in the capital, neutralizing HUMINT cells before they can provide BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) or refined targeting for RU missile forces.
Equipment: UAF is increasingly deploying UGVs (ground drones) for logistics or combat, as evidenced by RU's prioritization of these assets as targets (0759Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Security Guarantees Narrative: (0812Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW) Pro-RU sources are circulating claims that President Zelensky has mandated the drafting of security agreements involving Russia. This is likely a distortion of standard diplomatic preparation, framed to suggest Ukrainian desperation or "secret deals."
Social Engineering: RU sources are highlighting the deficit of psychologists and the "de-communization" of the power grid (0813Z, Dnevnik Desantnika) to demoralize the Ukrainian populace and justify the targeting of civilian infrastructure.
Environmental Factors: A minor M1.4 solar flare (0821Z) was recorded. While unlikely to disrupt hardened military comms, it may cause transient issues with civilian-grade GPS or HF radio.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU tactical aviation will continue KAB strikes in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia to fix UAF reserves. RU will likely conduct BDA via drone or HUMINT to prepare for a second wave of strikes on the fragile energy grid in Kyiv and Odesa.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Following the strike on the Moscow FGUP facility, RU may escalate "retaliatory" strikes against Ukrainian government decision-making centers in Kyiv, potentially utilizing the "Quiet Depot" missile inventory identified in previous reports.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Assess the operational impact of the Moscow FGUP explosion. Determine if this facility supports RU military satellite processing or strategic C2.
[HIGH] Verify the status of the Lukoil refinery in Ukhta; determine if production has been halted.
[HIGH] Monitor UAF UGV loss rates in the Toretsk sector to evaluate the effectiveness of RU's "counter-drone" reconnaissance tactics.
[MEDIUM] Confirm if the Apple account blocks in RU are affecting military personnel using personal devices for battlefield applications (e.g., mapping).
