Deep Strike Extension (Ukhta, RU): (0739Z, ASTRA, HIGH) Reports of explosions and smoke near Gazprom infrastructure in Ukhta (Komi Republic), approximately 1,500km from the Ukrainian border. Rosaviatsiya has closed the local airport.
Energy Infrastructure Damage: (0731Z, RBC-UA; 0751Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH) DTEK confirms a Thermal Power Plant (TPP) suffered "significant equipment damage" following a direct hit during the overnight mass attack.
Updated Interception Data: (0748Z, Tsaplienko/UAF, HIGH) UAF reports a total of 213 targets intercepted (15 ballistic missiles, 197 UAVs). Critically, 28 successful enemy hits across 13 locations have been confirmed.
Zaporizhzhia Attrition: (0730Z, Voin DV; 0747Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM) RU forces claim destruction of a 2S1 Gvozdika and a French-supplied CAESAR self-propelled howitzer via Lancet ("Iks-ovod") loitering munitions.
Kyiv Heat Status: (0740Z, Dnevnik Desantnika/Klitschko, MEDIUM) Reports indicate approximately 2,600 buildings remain without heat in Kyiv. This is a reduction from earlier figures (3,700), suggesting active repair efforts despite the -27°C freeze.
RU Digital Comms Fragility: (0733Z, Sever.Realii; 0741Z, WarGonzo, HIGH) WhatsApp is facing blocking attempts within Russia. Pro-RU military correspondents (WarGonzo) are actively migrating to the "MAX" platform, confirming significant disruption to field communications.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern / Kyiv Sector:
The humanitarian situation remains critical but shows signs of stabilization as repair crews potentially restored heat to ~1,100 buildings in the last hour. However, the -27°C temperature remains the primary threat to civilian life and infrastructure integrity.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Siversk):
Siversk/Zakitne: No new data on the frozen river infiltration; search-and-strike operations by the 81st Airmobile are assumed ongoing.
Tactical Aviation: (0735Z, UAF AF, HIGH) RU tactical aviation has launched a new wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against targets in Donetsk Oblast, likely focusing on UAF staging areas.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
RU ISR-strike loops appear highly active. The reported loss of a CAESAR SPG on the march (0747Z, Poddubny) suggests RU "Vostok" group has maintained effective drone surveillance over UAF GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) despite the weather. RU authorities claim a UAF strike on a postal office in Primorsk (0754Z).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Strategic Reach: The explosions in Ukhta (Komi) indicate that either UAF long-range capabilities have expanded or partisan sabotage groups are operating deep within RU energy corridors.
Logistics & Sustainment: RU is aggressively recruiting for Air Defense (PVO) personnel with high salary incentives (0732Z, Dva Mayora), suggesting a perceived or actual deficit in AD coverage for rear-area infrastructure.
Internal Security: The FSB's detention of "saboteurs" in Udmurtia (0742Z) and the de-escalation of the Moscow vehicle explosion to a "short circuit" (0756Z, Colonelcassad) suggest a state effort to downplay internal instability while simultaneously hardening security.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Logistics: UAF continues to prioritize RU energy and transport hubs (Ukhta, Volgograd, Michurinsk).
Force Generation: Active recruitment drives continue (0733Z, Butusov), balanced by high civilian engagement in "RUSORIZ" drone fundraising (0744Z, Sternenko).
Resilience: DTEK repair crews are the current "operational center of gravity," working to prevent a total grid collapse during the freeze.
Information environment / disinformation
Platform Migration: The RU MoD/Government attempt to control the digital space (Telegram/WhatsApp) is forcing a fragmented migration to "MAX." This creates a temporary intelligence window as RU units transition to new, potentially less secure, communication protocols.
Strategic Narrative: RU state media (TASS) is using Elon Musk/extraterrestrial narratives (0738Z) and NATO-aggression commentaries (0750Z, Scott Ritter) to distract from domestic economic concerns (e.g., the 100k RUB "low income" threshold in Moscow).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will maintain KAB pressure in Donetsk to prevent UAF from reinforcing the Zakitne breach. Repair efforts on the Ukrainian grid will be targeted by localized drone strikes to disrupt technical teams.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU utilizes the "Quiet Depot" inventory (referenced in previous reports) for a second "finishing" strike on the DTEK TPPs currently undergoing emergency repairs, aiming for a permanent regional blackout.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the extent of damage at the Ukhta/Gazprom site; determine if this was a long-range UAV or internal sabotage.
[HIGH] Verify the status of the "MAX" platform used by RU mil-bloggers to determine its susceptibility to SIGINT collection.
[HIGH] Confirm visual evidence of the CAESAR SPG loss in Zaporizhzhia to assess if RU has improved its Lancet-target acquisition in sub-zero temperatures.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the status of the Siverskyi Donets ice-crossing near Zakitne; determine if RU has successfully moved heavy equipment across the ice.
