Massive Aerial Assault (National): (0710Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) RU launched 25 missiles and 219 UAVs (approx. 150 Shaheds). UAF reports 16 missiles and 197 UAVs shot down or suppressed. Primary targets: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa.
Kyiv Humanitarian Crisis: (0658Z, RBK-UA; 0712Z, DTEK, HIGH) Night strikes left 3,700 apartment buildings in Kyiv without heat and 107,000 families in the Desnyanskyi district without power during a -27°C freeze.
Zakitne Tactical Breach: (0719Z, 81st Airmobile Brigade, HIGH) UAF confirms RU infantry has infiltrated across the frozen Siverskyi Donets. Search-and-strike operations are currently underway to neutralize these elements.
New RU Drone Tech: (0703Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) RU has deployed the "RUS-PE," a container-launched kamikaze drone, for field testing in the SVO zone.
Moscow Vehicle Explosion: (0721Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM) An unidentified vehicle exploded in the Mozhaisky district of Moscow; cause and casualties currently unknown.
Alleged UA Delegation to Moscow: (0705Z, Hayabusa, LOW) UNCONFIRMED reports claim a UA delegation may travel to Moscow for direct negotiations. This is likely a disinformation/narrative operation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern / Kyiv Sector:
The Russian "energy terror" campaign has transitioned to a "heat terror" phase. By successfully interdicting power and heating for over 100,000 citizens in the Desnyanskyi district, RU is leveraging the extreme cold as a force multiplier. Repair crews (DTEK) are operating under high-threat conditions.
2. Eastern Sector (Siversk/Pokrovsk):
At Zakitne, the situation remains fluid. The 81st Airmobile’s report of "search-and-strike" operations indicates that RU forces have not established a firm bridgehead but are operating as dispersed infiltration groups. In the Pokrovsk direction, the General Staff reported 22 combat engagements over the last 24h, claiming all Russian assaults were halted at specific mapped settlements.
3. Southern Sector (Kherson):
RU sources claim a UA drone strike killed two volunteers near Hola Prystan (0701Z). While unconfirmed by UA sources, this suggests continued high-intensity FPV operations in the Dnipro River delta.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: RU is increasing its use of ground-based robotics. The "Kurier" NRTK (ground robot with cage armor) has been sighted in snowy terrain (0716Z), suggesting RU is using unmanned systems to conduct reconnaissance or logistics where infantry exposure is too risky due to the cold and UA drones.
Capabilities: The volume of the overnight strike (244+ aerial targets) confirms that the "Quiet Depot" signal (from previous reports) was indeed a pre-launch inventory movement. RU maintains the capability to saturate AD systems despite high interception rates.
Internal Security: The vehicle explosion in Moscow and the FSB detentions in Udmurtia (0726Z) suggest an uptick in internal friction or partisan activity within the RF, potentially a response to the intensified strikes on UA.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UAF successfully intercepted 80% of missiles and 90% of UAVs. However, the 20% "leakers" targeted critical nodes (heat/power), causing disproportionate humanitarian impact.
Strategic Policy: President Zelenskyy has enacted the NSDC decision regarding security guarantees (0715Z), formalizing the long-term defensive posture.
Counter-Infiltration: The 81st Airmobile is currently the primary unit engaged in preventing the Siverskyi Donets ice-crossing from becoming a permanent breach.
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Narratives: Claims of a UA delegation heading to Moscow (0705Z) are highly suspicious and likely designed to create internal political friction in Kyiv or suggest UA weakness.
Strategic Disinfo: RU channels (0703Z) claim RU "Kinzhals" destroyed the Lviv Aviation Plant and French Mirage 2000 jets. LOW confidence; likely a compensatory narrative for the high interception rates of RU missiles reported by UAF.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will continue tactical-level "ice infiltration" along the Siverskyi Donets while using KAB strikes on northern Kharkiv (0720Z) to fix UA reserves.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A follow-up missile strike targeting the specific repair sites in Kyiv and Odesa to prevent the restoration of heat and power, maximizing civilian casualties via hypothermia.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the status of the "leaker" missiles in the Lviv sector; specifically, verify the condition of the Lviv Aviation Plant to debunk RU claims.
[HIGH] Determine the cargo/target of the vehicle explosion in Moscow (0721Z) to assess if this was a targeted assassination or sabotage.
[HIGH] Monitor RU 123rd Brigade movements near Sloviansk to see if they are moving to exploit the Zakitne infiltration.
[MEDIUM] Verify RU claims regarding the "RUS-PE" drone's effectiveness and its launch platform characteristics.
