Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-02-11 12:30 UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

• BALLISTIC THREAT: (11:58, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Immediate threat of ballistic missile employment from the east targeting central/eastern Ukraine.
• STARLINK EXPLOITATION ATTEMPT: (12:18, SBU/Shef Hayabusa, HIGH) SBU issued a critical warning that Russian forces are attempting to recruit Ukrainian citizens to register Starlink terminals on their behalf to bypass geolocation blocking of RU-operated units.
• LEGISLATIVE MILESTONE: (12:20, Sternenko/VR, HIGH) Verkhovna Rada passed Bill 13574 (243 votes), codifying a one-year mobilization deferment for men aged 18–25 who complete a one-year voluntary contract.
• ANAPA SHOOTING ESCALATION: (11:57-12:12, TASS/Alex Parker, HIGH) The shooting at Anapa Technical School resulted in the death of a security guard. The 17-year-old suspect reportedly followed "Columbine-style" subcultures (linked to the Kerch shooter) and utilized Telegram "incel" and gaming communities.
• NORTHERN UAV INGRESS: (12:16, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Russian UAVs identified over western Sumy Oblast, moving on a vector toward Konotop.
• ENERGY SECTOR PSYOP: (12:14, RVvoenkor, MEDIUM) Russian channels are amplifying claims that Ukrainian energy repair reserves are "at zero," likely to prime the information space for an upcoming strategic strike on the grid.
• EQUIPMENT ATTRITION (LYMAN): (12:26, Butusov, HIGH) Visual confirmation of Russian armored vehicles destroyed/burning in the Lyman sector, indicating high-intensity tactical engagement continues despite "Ice Armor" conditions.

Operational picture (by sector)

• Bakhmut/Artemovsk Sector: Renewed Russian activity reported near Orekhovo-Vasilevka (11:57, Slivochny Kapriz). Potential RU attempt to broaden the northern flank of the Bakhmut salient.
• Lyman Sector: Heavy attrition of Russian maneuver units (12:26). RU remains unable to consolidate gains on the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets.
• Sumy Sector: Kinetic activity remains high. UAV incursions toward Konotop (12:16) suggest RU is looking for gaps in AD coverage as "Ice Armor" mobility tests continue.
• Zaporizhzhia Sector: Air raid alert cleared (12:26), though RU 58th CAA remains in an offensive posture following their 1.5km advance earlier today.
• Belgorod (RU Rear): UAF strikes confirmed in the region, resulting in three civilian casualties (12:20). RU early warning continues to struggle following the Telegram block.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Masking: Russian Spetsnaz units are promoting "HIDER" tactical gear designed to mask thermal signatures by reflecting ambient temperatures (12:01, Arkhangel Spetsnaza). Assessment: This is a direct response to UAF dominance in thermal-equipped FPV and Mavic operations.
• Technical Workarounds: The attempt to register Starlink through UA proxies (12:18) confirms that Russian front-line units are desperate for reliable C2 and high-bandwidth data links outside the failed "MAX" app ecosystem.
• Logistics & Sustainability: Russian Customs reported transferring 3.3 billion rubles worth of confiscated goods to the "SVO" (12:03). This highlights a reliance on non-standard logistics chains to supplement official MoD supplies.
• Aviation: Fighterbomber (12:24) confirms active taxiing of transport and fighter aircraft on snow-covered airfields, likely indicating a staging for the expected missile/UAV wave.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• SIGINT/CI: The SBU's rapid identification and public warning regarding the Starlink registration scheme suggests high-level monitoring of RU communications and successful counter-intelligence operations.
• Strategic Communication: The 1.3 billion UAH allocation for the "єВідновлення" program in Dnipropetrovsk (12:24) serves to stabilize the rear and maintain civilian morale amid persistent strike threats.
• Force Generation: The passage of Bill 13574 provides a legal incentive for younger recruits, balancing the need for personnel with long-term demographic sustainability.

Information environment / disinformation

• "NATO AD Hack" Claim: Russian sources (Kotsnews/Poddubny) are claiming Russia has "hacked" NATO air defense systems (LOW CONFIDENCE / DISINFORMATION). No technical evidence provided; likely an attempt to bolster morale after the Telegram blackout.
• Domestic Deflection: Following the Anapa shooting, RU state media is aggressively pivoting to blame Western-influenced gaming culture (Dota 2) and "social zoomers" (12:12), attempting to steer the narrative away from internal security failures and the impact of the digital blackout on emergency response.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: Continued UAV harassment of Sumy/Konotop, potentially serving as a precursor or distraction for the signaled ballistic missile strike from the east.
• MDCOA: A coordinated multi-axis strike (Ballistic + Shahed + KAB) targeting the energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, exploiting the reported "zero reserves" in repair equipment.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [HIGH] Technical evaluation of "HIDER" camouflage gear to adjust thermal detection algorithms for UAF drone operators.
2. [HIGH] Monitoring of RU aircraft counts at airfields shown in recent "Fighterbomber" posts to confirm launch readiness for Tu-95/Tu-22M3 fleets.
3. [MEDIUM] Confirmation of RU claims regarding the destruction of a "key UAV plant" mentioned in The Atlantic.

---

IPB 1: SITUATION OVERVIEW The battlefield remains shaped by the "Ice Armor" environment, but the focus has shifted to the aero-ballistic domain. The lifting of the Zaporizhzhia alert (12:26) is likely temporary, as UAF AF warnings (11:58) indicate ballistic assets are in a high-readiness state in the Eastern Military District of Russia.

IPB 2: ENEMY ANALYSIS Russia is demonstrating a multi-layered adaptation strategy: technical (Starlink workarounds), tactical (thermal masking gear), and logistical (using confiscated customs goods). The internal social friction (Anapa, repenting co-conspirators like Viktor Vasin) suggests a fragile domestic rear, which the MoD is attempting to manage through censorship and "patriotic" narratives.

IPB 3: FRIENDLY FORCES UAF remains reactive but effective in the northern sectors (Sumy/Lyman). The primary success of the last 2 hours is the legislative closure on the 18-25 age mobilization issue, which removes a major RU propaganda talking point and provides a clear path for contract-based force expansion.

IPB 4: INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT RU propaganda is currently focused on "technological superiority" claims (NATO hacks) to mask the chaos of the Telegram ban. The SBU’s intervention in the Starlink scheme is a critical win in the "gray zone" of hybrid warfare, preventing RU from regaining reliable C2.

IPB 5: PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS The immediate threat is the "Ballistic Weaponry from the East." Given the taxiing transport and fighter aircraft (12:24), a combined-arms strike is likely. The Orekhovo-Vasilevka movement suggests a potential RU attempt to pressure Bakhmut's flanks while UA's attention is fixed on the Zaporizhzhia "breakthrough" claims.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//