Situation Update (2026-02-11 08:00 UTC)
Key updates since last sitrep
- UAF TECHNOLOGICAL ADAPTATION: (07:30, STERNENKO, HIGH) Defense Minister Fedorov has met with manufacturers of fiber-optic FPV drones. This signals a priority shift to bypass Russian Electronic Warfare (EW), which currently mitigates standard radio-frequency drones.
- DEEP STRIKE ON RU INFRASTRUCTURE: (07:32, TASS, HIGH) UAF UAVs struck an industrial plant and a residential building in the Volgograd region (RU). RU MoD claims 10 UAVs intercepted over RU territory this morning (07:56, ASTRA).
- SYNCHRONIZED KAB WAVE 2: (07:35, 07:49, 07:56, UA Air Force, HIGH) A second coordinated wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) has been launched within the last 25 minutes targeting Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions.
- DOMESTIC RU C2 FRAGILITY: (07:43, 07:54, Voenkor Kotenok/Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM) Telegram outages persist in RU border regions (Belgorod). The state-sanctioned "MAX" app is attempting to retain users by enabling private channels, indicating a desperate effort to stabilize lateral military communications.
- OPERATIONAL SUCCESS - "BUREVIY" BRIGADE: (07:45, Operativno ZSU, HIGH) Video confirmation of 35 Russian personnel KIA and multiple hardware losses (including a Starlink unit) during the first week of February under extreme cold conditions.
Operational picture (by sector)
- Kharkiv Sector: Intensity has shifted to "Emergency" status (07:36). Persistent KAB strikes and the prioritization of the Volokhovka axis suggest a localized RU offensive may be imminent.
- Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk Sector: Heavy UAV activity reported over Synelnykove and Pokrovske (07:34). RU 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment is utilizing UAV-corrected D-30 howitzer fire in snowy woodland terrain (07:37).
- Zaporizhzhia/Vremyevka Sector: RU 5th Army is actively targeting UAF communications and drone infrastructure (07:37). The second wave of KABs (07:49) targets this sector heavily, likely preparing for the 16km "breakthrough" attempt mentioned in previous reports.
- Sumy Sector: Shahed-type UAVs are currently on a vector toward Shostka (07:54).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Shift: RU forces are increasingly integrating real-time UAV surveillance with legacy artillery (D-30s) to improve response times during the "Deep Freeze" (07:37).
- Course of Action (COA): RU is maintaining a "saturation strike" profile. By hitting three disparate regions with KABs simultaneously, they are forcing UAF to dilute air defense assets and mobile reserves.
- Vulnerability: The continued struggle with Telegram/MAX in Belgorod suggests that RU local C2 and civilian administration in border regions remain brittle and susceptible to cyber/EW disruption.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- EW Counter-Measures: The move toward fiber-optic drones is a critical response to RU's "drone hunter" teams. These drones are immune to jamming, potentially restoring UAF's tactical edge in high-EW contested zones.
- Deep Strike Ops: The Volgograd strike indicates UAF's continued capability to bypass RU AD and hit logistics/industrial targets deep in the rear despite extreme weather.
- Personnel/Morale: The Coordination Headquarters for POWs has streamlined notification processes (07:49), a move aimed at maintaining domestic morale and support for the families of defenders.
Information environment / disinformation
- "Election" Counter-Narrative: RU sources (Fighterbomber) are now attacking the very election rumors RU propaganda initially spread (07:32), likely to create a "circular" information trap that exhausts UAF verification resources.
- Conscription Friction: RU channels are amplifying a video of a physical altercation in Odesa involving the TCC (conscription office) (07:45) to fuel internal UA civil-military tension.
- "Holodomor" Narrative: EU calls to stop the "Holodomor" (killing by cold) (07:35) provide high-level diplomatic support for UA energy grid defense.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Continued UAV/KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Sumy to fix UAF forces in the north while RU attempts to solidify the reported 5-16km gains in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
- MDCOA: A massive missile strike against the energy grid (building on the "quiet" GRAU arsenal observation from the daily report) synchronized with the current KAB waves to overwhelm AD.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Verification of the factory type struck in Volgograd; determine if it impacts RU barrel or missile production.
- [HIGH] Technical verification of RU's "MAX" app encryption and channel structure for potential SIGINT exploitation.
- [MEDIUM] Confirmation of the 16km RU advance claim near Zaliznychne. Still no visual confirmation (BVO) of RU forces at that depth.
IPB 1: SITUATION OVERVIEW
The conflict has entered a technical-weather race. While RU uses the ice to bypass terrain obstacles, UAF is accelerating fiber-optic drone deployment to bypass RU's primary defensive tool (EW).
IPB 2: ENEMY ANALYSIS
RU's reliance on D-30s with UAV correction (07:37) shows a shift back to massed, corrected fires to compensate for the difficulty of infantry maneuver in -27°C. The "Vostok" group's focus on UAF drone teams remains their highest tactical priority.
IPB 3: FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is successfully managing "deep" and "close" fights simultaneously. The "Bureviy" Brigade's success (07:45) proves that UAF mechanized units can maintain combat effectiveness in extreme cold, contradicting RU "normalization" propaganda.
IPB 4: INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
The "Election Trap" is entering a second phase of reflexive control where RU sources discredit the very rumors they started to confuse Western analysts.
IPB 5: PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
The forecast for freezing rain/thaw in Moscow (07:27) may affect RU VKS sortie rates in 24-48h. The current KAB waves represent a "window of opportunity" usage of air assets before the weather system moves south and degrades flight conditions.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
