Situation Update (2026-02-11 07:27 UTC)
Key updates since last sitrep
- MULTI-AXIS KAB STRIKES: (06:58, 07:14, 07:24, UA Air Force, HIGH) Russian VKS has launched a coordinated wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Kherson regions within a 30-minute window.
- LOSS OF ARTILLERY ASSET: (07:00, Voin DV, MEDIUM) Russian "Vostok" group claims destruction of a UAF CAESAR self-propelled gun (SPG) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during a position change. UNCONFIRMED; video evidence cited by RU sources, BDA pending from UAF.
- ANTI-DRONE TARGETING: (07:04, 07:17, Mash na Donbasse/Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM) Russian forces are intensifying "drone hunting" operations, claiming successful strikes on UAF drone operator positions in Volokhovka (Kharkiv) and Dobropillya (Donetsk).
- UGV LOGISTICS DEPLOYMENT: (07:17, Colonelcassad, HIGH) Russian forces are utilizing "Courier" Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) for cargo delivery across mined and fire-controlled terrain. This indicates a shift toward robotic "last-mile" sustainment to bypass UAF FPV coverage.
- UAF INTERNAL SECURITY: (07:24, Operativno ZSU, HIGH) The SBU and Prosecutor General have exposed a high-ranking official at the UAF Main Hospital for involvement in a draft-evasion scheme.
- OПК INDUSTRIAL ADAPTATION: (07:15, ISW/Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM) Reports indicate Russia is successfully circumventing sanctions to acquire foreign machine tools, specifically to increase production of tank and artillery barrels—a critical bottleneck for their long-term sustainment.
Operational picture (by sector)
- Kharkiv/Kupiansk Sector: Significant aerial pressure. KAB strikes launched from northern RU territory (06:58). RU forces are prioritizing the destruction of UAF drone assets in Volokhovka to clear the way for border-area operations.
- Donetsk/Vuhledar Sector: High-intensity bombardment. New footage shows near-total destruction in Vuhledar and extreme mine contamination (07:15). KAB strikes reported near Dobropillya, targeting the "Army of Drones" infrastructure.
- Zaporizhzhia Sector: RU Spetsnaz (14th Brigade) and 36th Army are active in counter-battery and interdiction, specifically hunting Western-provided mobile artillery (CAESAR).
- Sumy Sector: Emerging threat; UAF Air Force confirms UAVs moving toward the region (07:06).
- Southern Sector (Kherson): Sustained KAB strikes reported (07:24), likely targeting UAF bridgehead support or logistics hubs.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Course of Action (COA): Russia is moving from generalized bombardment to specialized hunting of UAF high-value targets (HVTs), particularly drone operator teams and mobile Western artillery.
- Technological Adaptation: The deployment of "Courier" UGVs (07:17) and "Legend" BR-5 modular body armor (06:59) suggests RU is attempting to mitigate high casualty rates during "last mile" logistics and assault operations.
- Sustainment: If the ISW assessment on barrel production is accurate, RU artillery capability will remain high despite current wear-and-tear projections.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Consolidated Morale: Widespread observance of the 09:00 National Minute of Silence across all administrative and military channels (Zaporizhzhia Admin, KMVA, General Staff).
- Anti-Corruption: Aggressive internal policing of mobilization-related corruption (Main Hospital bust) serves as both a readiness measure and a public accountability signal.
- Tactical Constraints: Increased RU focus on drone teams requires higher mobility and improved concealment for UAF UAV units (Forces of Unmanned Systems).
Information environment / disinformation
- "The Election Trap": Russian and some Western sources continue to amplify the Financial Times report regarding a Feb 24 election announcement (07:02, 07:08) despite categorical UAF denials. This is a clear reflexive control operation aimed at delegitimizing the UA administration.
- Domestic RU Narrative: RU state media is emphasizing "normalization" (Olympics/metro incidents) alongside military recruitment and "Somali" battalion propaganda (07:12).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Continued saturation of the Kharkiv-Donetsk-Kherson axis with KABs to degrade defensive fortifications. High probability of UAV-led strikes on Sumy logistics.
- MDCOA: A coordinated assault in the Kupiansk or Vuhledar sectors, utilizing the reported "Courier" UGVs to breach minefields or supply isolated assault groups that were previously cut off by UAF fire control.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirmation of CAESAR SPG loss in Zaporizhzhia. Need visual verification and unit impact assessment.
- [HIGH] Technical specs and frequency range of the "Courier" UGV to develop electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures.
- [MEDIUM] Assessment of RU barrel production capacity; identification of specific foreign tool suppliers for sanction targeting.
IPB 1: SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is characterized by multi-domain attrition. Russia is leveraging aerial dominance (KABs) and robotic logistics (UGVs) to offset the "Deep Freeze" difficulties and UAF drone superiority.
IPB 2: ENEMY ANALYSIS
The shift to hunting drone operators indicates RU recognizes the UAF's primary tactical advantage. The RU OПК's ability to produce barrels (IPB 2 update) suggests they are not yet approaching "artillery starvation."
IPB 3: FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is facing a dual challenge: defending against a surge in precision aerial bombs and maintaining domestic legitimacy amidst a sustained RU information operation regarding elections and corruption.
IPB 4: INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RU is successfully keeping the "Election" narrative alive in the Western/UA information space to create friction between the UA government and its populace.
IPB 5: PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
The KAB strikes across three geographically distinct regions (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson) within 30 minutes (06:58-07:24) suggest a high-level synchronized air tasking order. This likely precedes a larger tactical movement or is a response to the "GRAU Arsenal silence" noted in the previous 24h report—possibly the start of the predicted missile/bombing wave.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
