RU DOMESTIC CENSORSHIP: (10:05, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH) Roskomnadzor (RKN) has officially transitioned from service disruptions to "active slowing/restriction" of Telegram within the Russian Federation.
UKRAINIAN MANPOWER POLICY: (10:07, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) Defense Minister Fedorov announced a new "Contract 18-24" initiative, granting mandatory one-year mobilization deferments upon completion of service.
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DEGRADATION: (10:12, РБК-Україна, HIGH) Ukrenergo has initiated emergency power outages across multiple regions following the strike on the Kachanovsky gas plant and sustained "Deep Freeze" (-27°C) temperatures.
SBU COUNTER-INTEL SUCCESS: (10:21, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM) An Ukrzaliznytsia (railway) employee was arrested for providing target coordinates for a Russian strike on Slovyansk that occurred today.
HULIAIPOLE SECTOR PRESSURE: (10:05, STERNENKO, MEDIUM) Reports of "urgent requests" from the Huliaipole axis, suggesting the 5km Russian westward push is placing significant stress on UAF logistics and defensive lines.
UNCONFIRMED BUK SAM LOSS: (10:09, Поддубный, LOW) Pro-RU sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian Buk surface-to-air missile (SAM) system in Dnipropetrovsk region via loitering munition.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently defined by a "double-squeeze" on Ukrainian state resilience: extreme environmental stress (the "Deep Freeze") and targeted kinetic strikes on the energy sector. RU forces are attempting to capitalize on the weather-induced strain by intensifying pressure on the Huliaipole and Pokrovsk flanks.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline near Huliaipole is increasingly volatile following the RU breakthrough at Zaliznychne. In the Donbas, the Slovyansk-Konstantinovka-Rodinske triangle is under heightened missile and artillery pressure.
Weather and Environment: -27°C temperatures are forcing emergency power rationing. This degrades UAF sustainment and civilian morale while complicating the operation of heavy equipment and drone batteries.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action (COA): RU is integrating domestic information control with frontline kinetic operations. The slowing of Telegram suggests a move to centralize the RU information space, possibly to mask internal friction or upcoming troop movements.
Tactical Changes: RU continues to utilize high-volume MLRS (81st Regiment) in the Konstantinovka direction (10:16, MoD Russia) to suppress UAF deployment areas.
New Capabilities: Rostec has unveiled the RPG-29M at the World Defense Show 2026, claiming increased range. Analysts should monitor for the first tactical deployment of these modernized AT systems (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.19 for technology deployment).
Belarusian Posture: (10:24, Поддубный) Belarus has officially stated its intention to "strengthen defense capability" based on SVO experience, increasing the threat of a secondary front or logistical diversion in the north (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.21 for reinforcement in NW area).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Manpower & Readiness: The "Contract 18-24" policy (10:07, Fedorov) is a strategic pivot to incentivize younger cohorts to enlist by providing post-service legal guarantees. This is a long-term readiness play.
Internal Security: The SBU’s neutralization of a railway collaborator in Slovyansk (10:21) highlights the persistent threat of "insider" target acquisition. The strike on Slovyansk today confirms RU continues to prioritize rail hubs.
Civilian Resilience: Hybrid learning for IDP students in shelters (10:30, Zaporizhzhia OVA) demonstrates high societal adaptability despite the kinetic threat.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Censorship: The RKN's slowing of Telegram (10:05, 10:16) marks a significant escalation in RU domestic control. This will likely disrupt RU "mil-blogger" autonomy but may also impact UAF OSINT collection capabilities.
PSYOPS: DNR-aligned sources are disseminating alleged radio intercepts from the 425th "Skala" Battalion near Rodinske (10:03). This is assessed as a low-impact demoralization effort.
Diplomatic Narratives: Lavrov’s demands regarding "security guarantees" (10:18) and claims regarding the Alekseev assassination attempt (10:19) suggest RU is attempting to set preconditions for potential negotiations by framing Ukraine/West as "unreliable partners."
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RU will sustain MLRS and drone pressure on the Slovyansk-Konstantinovka axis to prevent UAF from reinforcing the Huliaipole sector. Emergency outages in Ukraine will be exploited by RU propaganda to stimulate anti-government sentiment.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated RU push from the newly established Zaliznychne salient toward Huliaipole, timed with a total breakdown of local electrical grids, leading to a localized collapse of UAF automated C2 systems.
Timeline: Continued emergency blackouts expected for the next 24-48 hours until energy infrastructure stabilization occurs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the operational status of the Buk SAM system in Dnipropetrovsk following RU claims of its destruction (10:09).
[HIGH] Identify specific "urgent requests" from Huliaipole (10:05) to determine if the requirement is for ammunition, winter gear, or casualty evacuation (CASEVAC).
[HIGH] Assess the severity of the Slovyansk strike (10:21); determine if rail logistics were significantly severed.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Belarusian border movements to distinguish between "experience-based strengthening" (10:24) and actual offensive mobilization.
