RU FRONT LINE EXPANSION (ZAPORIZHZHIA): (09:34, ТАСС, HIGH) Following the capture of Zaliznychne, RU forces have reportedly pushed the front line 5km west of Huliaipole.
UKRAINIAN TACTICAL AMBUSH (SUMY): (09:52, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH) The 71st Jaeger Brigade (71-ї ОАеМБр) successfully destroyed a large RU assault group attempting a subsurface infiltration via a pipe near Yablunivka.
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (ENERGY): (09:58, Операция Z, MEDIUM) RU forces report a successful kinetic strike on the Kachanovsky gas processing plant.
CONTESTED APPROACHES (POKROVSK): (09:50, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) 7th Corps DShV reports heavy combat on the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk and the approaches to Hryshyne.
TELEGRAM NETWORK DISRUPTIONS: (09:36, ASTRA, HIGH) Major service outages reported across RU for the second consecutive day; rumors circulating regarding Roskomnadzor initiation of blocking measures (10:01, Новости Москвы).
AERIAL THREAT (KRYVYI RIH): (09:47, AFU Air Force, HIGH) Detection of RU strike UAVs transiting toward Kryvyi Rih from the southeast.
UNCONFIRMED DISSOLUTION OF INT. LEGION: (09:37, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, LOW) Reports citing Le Monde claim Ukraine has disbanded the International Legion. This remains uncorroborated by official UAF sources.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational tempo remains high despite the "-27°C Deep Freeze" conditions. RU forces are prioritizing the exploitation of their breakthrough at Zaliznychne to widen the salient south of Huliaipole. Simultaneously, RU has shifted focus toward the Sumy front, utilizing unorthodox infiltration tactics (subsurface pipes), which UAF has successfully countered.
Battlefield Geometry: The Zaporizhzhia line is bending westward; the 5km RU advance from Zaliznychne threatens to outflank Huliaipole's secondary defenses. In the Pokrovsk sector, the "center of gravity" is shifting toward Hryshyne.
Weather and Environment: Extreme cold continues to degrade infrastructure. A kindergarten roof collapse in Nizhny Novgorod (09:55, ASTRA) indicates that heavy snow and thermal stress are impacting RU domestic municipal stability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action (COA): RU is employing a dual-track strategy of localized ground breakthroughs (Zaporizhzhia) and continued degradation of the Ukrainian energy sector (Kachanovsky gas plant strike).
Tactical Adaptations: The attempt to use drainage/utility pipes for infiltration in Sumy (Operation "Pipe") demonstrates a RU effort to bypass UAF's drone-monitored "grey zones," although this specific attempt was interdicted with high casualties.
Internal Stability/C2: The sustained disruption of Telegram (09:48, Два майора) is causing friction within RU mil-blogger circles, potentially hampering decentralized RU tactical reporting and coordination.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Posture: The 7th Corps DShV is engaged in high-intensity "active defense" near Hryshyne. In the north, the 71st Jaeger Brigade has demonstrated high readiness by detecting and neutralizing unconventional infiltration attempts in the Sumy sector.
Internal Security: UAF and the General Prosecutor’s Office continue to aggressively target draft-evasion networks (Chernihiv medical corruption case, 10:00).
Strategic Resilience: Ukraine’s +1 point improvement in the Corruption Perception Index (10:02, РБК-Україна) supports the narrative of institutional strengthening during the conflict, essential for continued EU/Western aid.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Disinformation/Fragmentation: RU sources are heavily amplifying a Le Monde report regarding the dissolution of the International Legion (09:37). This is likely a targeted information operation (IO) intended to signal waning Western volunteer support.
Censorship: The Telegram outage is being framed by some RU sources as a "Roskomnadzor test" for full blocking, signaling a potential shift toward a more restricted RU domestic information space.
EU Accession Narratives: RU state media (TASS) is closely monitoring Politico’s reporting on EU-Ukraine accession steps, looking for points of European political friction.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RU will attempt to consolidate the 5km gain west of Zaliznychne and establish fire control over the main supply routes into Huliaipole. Strike UAVs currently heading for Kryvyi Rih (09:47) will likely target electrical substations to exacerbate "Deep Freeze" effects.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A RU breakthrough at Hryshyne that allows for a rapid mechanized push to bypass Pokrovsk’s urban core, coinciding with a total disruption of UAF tactical communications if Telegram/Signal-based coordination tools are further compromised.
Timeline: Expect kinetic impacts in the Kryvyi Rih area within the next 1-3 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm or deny the status of the International Legion via official Ministry of Defense channels.
[HIGH] Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the Kachanovsky gas processing plant; determine impact on regional fuel-energy throughput.
[HIGH] Monitor the status of the 5km RU advance west of Zaliznychne—identify if UAF has established a new blocking position or if the retreat is ongoing.
[MEDIUM] Assess if the Telegram outage in Russia is masking a larger RU internal security operation or is a byproduct of infrastructure failure.
