RU CAPTURE OF ZALIZNYCHNE (ZAPORIZHZHIA): (09:09, TASS, HIGH) Russian Ministry of Defense officially claims the "liberation" of Zaliznychne. This confirms the transition from "contested" to Russian control, threatening the Huliaipole flank.
UKRAINIAN DEEP STRIKE VECTOR (KRASNODAR): (09:22, Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM) Reports of multiple Ukrainian strike UAVs transiting from the Orikhiv/Tokmak sector toward Krasnodar Krai (RF).
STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING: (09:09, TASS, HIGH) RU MoD confirms focused strikes over the last 24h against Ukrainian fuel-energy and transport infrastructure.
INTENSIFIED KAB STRIKES (KHARKIV): (09:09, AFU Air Force, HIGH) New launches of KAB glide bombs targeting Eastern Kharkiv, expanding the aerial bombardment beyond the Zaporizhzhia axis.
STREET FIGHTING IN POKROVSK SECTOR: (09:07, Butusov Plus, HIGH) Combat footage confirms high-intensity urban warfare and FPV "clearing" operations by the UAF "Skelya" unit.
RU-FRANCE DIPLOMATIC THAW: (09:16, 09:17, TASS/Alex Parker, MEDIUM) Kremlin confirms resumption of technical-level contacts with France, signaling a potential shift in European diplomatic cohesion.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment is characterized by a Russian "shatter and seize" tactical success in the Zaporizhzhia sector. The capture of Zaliznychne provides RU forces with a tactical jumping-off point for a localized envelopment of Huliaipole. Concurrently, the air war has expanded; while RU maintains KAB pressure on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, UAF appears to be initiating a long-range UAV counter-response targeting the Russian rear (Krasnodar).
Battlefield Geometry: The loss of Zaliznychne creates a salient in the Zaporizhzhia line. In the East (Pokrovsk), the geometry remains a series of high-intensity urban "strongpoints" rather than a fluid line.
Infrastructure Status: Sustained RU pressure on the energy grid is forcing UAF and local administrations to implement emergency financial resilience measures (09:15, Zaporizhzhia OVA).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Operational Intent: RU is prioritizing the disruption of UAF logistics through hits on "fuel-energy and transport infrastructure" (09:09, TASS). This aligns with the "Deep Freeze" strategy to degrade mobility and sustainment in sub-zero temperatures.
Tactical Success: The capture of Zaliznychne (09:09, MoD Russia) suggests that RU mechanized and Spetsnaz units (09:02, Archangel Spetsnaza) are effectively coordinating with tactical aviation despite the cold.
Weapon Systems: High-volume Grad MLRS use in the Kostiantynivka direction (09:12, MoD Russia) indicates RU is maintaining high-expenditure rates of unguided area-denial munitions to suppress UAF "temporary deployment areas."
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Actions: UAF "Skelya" unit (09:07) continues to demonstrate high proficiency in FPV-integrated urban defense in the Pokrovsk sector, utilizing drones to compensate for potential artillery shortages.
Counter-Offensive Capability: The movement of strike UAVs toward Krasnodar (09:22) suggests UAF is attempting to interdict RU logistics/energy hubs in the Russian rear to achieve "asymmetric parity" for the strikes on the Ukrainian grid.
Resilience Measures: The Zaporizhzhia Regional State Administration’s rollout of 0% interest loans for energy equipment (09:15) is a critical civil-military adaptation to maintain operational continuity for local industry supporting the front.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Diplomatic Maneuvering: RU state media is heavily amplifying Macron’s warnings about Europe being "swept away" (09:20, TASS) and the resumption of RU-France contacts (09:17). This is designed to create a narrative of Western fragmentation.
Historical Justification: Continued promotion of the 2007 Munich Speech anniversary (09:19, Kotsnews) serves as internal and external propaganda to frame RU aggression as "strategic foresight."
Regional Shifts: The US-Armenia agreements (09:14, Rybar) represent a significant loss of Russian influence in the South Caucasus, which RU sources are framing as an "aggressive" US intervention.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RU will attempt to exploit the capture of Zaliznychne by pushing north toward Huliaipole and Uspenivka within the next 12 hours. KAB strikes in Kharkiv will intensify to fix UAF reserves in the north and prevent them from reinforcing the Zaporizhzhia breakthrough.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A RU breakthrough at the transport junctions in the Pokrovsk sector, coinciding with a total failure of the regional power grid due to the infrastructure strikes reported at 09:09, leading to a disorganized UAF withdrawal.
Timeline: Expect reports of UAF long-range UAV strikes in Krasnodar Krai within the 06-12h window.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify UAF's second line of defense behind Zaliznychne; assess if RU units have successfully bypassed Huliaipole’s eastern fortifications.
[HIGH] Identify the specific targets of the UAF UAV swarm transiting toward Krasnodar (Airbases vs. Oil Refineries).
[HIGH] Assess the damage extent of the "fuel-energy" strikes reported by the RU MoD at 09:09Z—specifically focusing on rail-fuel distribution hubs.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for confirmation of "Skelya" unit's status in Pokrovsk—are they holding the urban core or fighting a delay-and-withdraw action?
