KAB STRIKE EXPANSION: (15:37–15:49, Air Force ZSU, HIGH) Russian aviation has expanded glide bomb (KAB) strikes from Donetsk Oblast to include targets in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
KUPYANSK FRONT DISPUTE: (15:59, RBK-Ukraina, MEDIUM) Ukrainian officials formally denied Russian claims regarding the capture of Hluskivka (Kharkiv region); the settlement remains contested.
ZAPORIZHZHIA NARRATIVE CONTROL: (15:39, Tsaplienko/ZSU, HIGH) UAF Command issued a denial of Russian "military blogger" claims of a large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia, characterizing recent actions as localized tactical maneuvers.
LYMAN SECTOR PRESSURE: (15:40, Sliv Kapriz, MEDIUM) Reports indicate new Russian offensive pressure targeting Krasnyi Lyman from the east.
EU SANCTIONS ESCALATION: (15:46, TASS/Reuters, MEDIUM) EU's 20th sanctions package reportedly includes blacklisting 42 additional tankers and, for the first time, targeting ports involved in Russian oil logistics.
DIPLOMATIC CLARIFICATION: (15:36, Tsaplienko/Whitaker, HIGH) US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker denied President Zelenskyy’s earlier assertion that the US had established a June 2026 deadline for ending the war.
FPV STRIKE SUCCESS: (15:56, Sternenko, HIGH) UAF "Cursed Empire" drone units successfully interdicted three Russian ground-based robotic complexes (NRK) and multiple transport vehicles in the Kostyantynivka sector.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Kupyansk-Lyman Axis:
Status: Contested/High Intensity. Russian forces are claiming high-value "catches" (personnel/equipment) near Kupyansk (Colonelcassad, 15:55) to support their narrative of a breakthrough.
New Vector: RU forces are actively pushing toward Lyman from eastern approaches. UAF is focused on denying the capture of Hluskivka to prevent RU from consolidating the flank (15:59).
Tactical Development: UAF is successfully employing FPV drones against Russian "unmanned ground vehicles" (NRKs). This indicates a shift in Russian tactics toward using robotic platforms to mitigate personnel losses in the -27°C "Deep Freeze" (15:56).
Air Threat: Continuous KAB strikes are the primary Russian tool for suppression in this sector (15:37, 15:43).
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
Defensive Posture: UAF is maintaining a strict information blackout on maneuvers. Official channels are de-escalating reports of "counteroffensives" to manage expectations and maintain OPSEC.
New Threat: Russian strike UAVs (Shahed/Geran) detected entering Zaporizhzhia airspace at 16:00Z (Air Force ZSU).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Capabilities: Russia is increasingly reliant on KAB glide bombs to offset the reduced mobility of ground forces in extreme cold. The deployment of NRKs (ground robots) suggests RU is testing autonomous logistics/assault platforms due to high infantry attrition.
Logistics: The impending EU sanctions on ports and an additional 42 tankers, combined with the Aquila II seizure, represent a critical threat to the Russian "Shadow Fleet" fuel supply chain. RU likely to escalate maritime posturing in response.
Intent (MLCOA): Continued exploitation of the Lyman-Kupyansk axis with small-unit infantry supported by robotic platforms and heavy aviation strikes.
Intent (MDCOA): Use of ballistic assets (warned at 15:20) to strike energy nodes in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia to accelerate infrastructure collapse during the freeze.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Warfare: High success rate in FPV-led interdiction of RU logistical vehicles ("Bukhankas") and robotic complexes.
Strategic Communication: ZSU is aggressively countering Russian "victory" narratives (e.g., Hluskivka, Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive) to prevent domestic panic or international misconceptions about the front line stability.
Information environment / disinformation
Targeting Mobilization: Russian state media (TASS, Kotsnews) is flooding the environment with reports of "TCC violence" and "civil war" within Ukraine (15:33, 15:59). This is a coordinated IO campaign to rot Ukrainian domestic morale.
Distraction Campaigns: Pro-Russian channels are disseminating sensationalist Western-centric conspiracy theories (Jeffrey Epstein/acid claims) to clutter the information space and distract from operational RU losses (15:35, 15:53).
Geopolitical Friction: RU sources are highlighting the discrepancy between Zelenskyy’s June deadline claims and Whitaker’s denial to project a narrative of US-Ukraine "de-alignment" (15:36).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Alert: Expect the ballistic missile threat identified at 15:20 to manifest as a strike package against Southern/Central energy hubs as night temperatures drop.
Tactical: RU will likely continue the eastward push on Lyman. UAF drone units will prioritize hunting RU robotic platforms (NRKs) which are being used to probe defensive gaps.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of RU ground robotic (NRK) capabilities and deployment density in the Kostyantynivka sector.
[HIGH] Assessment of RU port readiness and alternative "Shadow Fleet" routes following the 20th EU sanctions announcement.
[MEDIUM] Clarification of "coercive practices" against Chechen conscripts; determine if this indicates internal RU personnel shortages or regional friction (15:32).
