BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EAST): (15:20, Air Force ZSU, HIGH) Air Force Command has issued an immediate warning for ballistic missile launches originating from the east. This aligns with SAR data from the 260th GRAU Arsenal suggesting munitions movement.
KUPYANSK COUNTER-OPS: (15:29, Rybar/Butusov, HIGH) Confirmed high-intensity combat in the Kupyansk sector. Pro-Russian sources claim a series of "massive counterattacks," while UAF footage (thermal optics) confirms the successful repelling of a Russian armored/infantry assault.
POKROVSK INFILTRATION ATTEMPT: (15:04, DShV ZSU, HIGH) A Russian Sabotage and Reconnaissance Group (DRG) attempted to exploit poor visibility/weather conditions to advance north of Pokrovsk. The unit was detected via drone surveillance and neutralized by UAF artillery.
AERIAL THREAT SATURATION: (15:07-15:09, Air Force ZSU, HIGH) Simultaneous threats detected: UAVs over northern Sumy (heading West) and KAB (glide bomb) strikes targeting Donetsk Oblast.
MARITIME LOGISTICS INTERDICTION: (15:24, РБК-Україна, HIGH) Visual confirmation released of the US seizure of the Russian shadow fleet tanker Aquila II, confirming significant disruption to the RU "Shadow Fleet" fuel supply chain.
INTERNAL SECURITY TIGHTENING (CRIMEA): (15:15, TASS, MEDIUM) Sevastopol occupation authorities have mandated that all public events must be cleared by a "security headquarters," indicating heightened paranoia regarding internal dissent or Ukrainian special operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Kupyansk Sector (Northern Axis):
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline is highly fluid. Russian forces are attempting to regain the initiative through localized counterattacks.
UAF Disposition: Utilizing thermal-equipped UAVs to compensate for -27°C visibility issues. Defensive lines remain intact despite RU claims of "massive" pressure (Butusov, 15:29).
2. Pokrovsk Sector (Central-East):
Enemy Tactics: RU is shifting from massed infantry "meat assaults" to small-unit DRG (sabotage) tactics to exploit the "Deep Freeze" weather (DShV ZSU, 15:04).
Control Measures: UAF has maintained "Deep Battle" surveillance, successfully integrating drone-artillery kill chains even in extreme cold.
3. Southern Axis & Crimea:
Infrastructure: Rolling blackouts in Odesa (15:17) indicate continued strain on the energy grid, though civilian morale remains resilient.
Rear Security: RU occupation in Sevastopol is increasing administrative control over public gatherings, likely in response to the perceived threat of maritime or partisan strikes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Capability: The Russian Air Force continues to leverage KAB glide bombs (15:09) to offset ground mobility issues caused by the frost. The emergence of ballistic threats (15:20) suggests a transition from tactical harassment to a coordinated operational strike package.
Intent (MDCOA): A multi-domain strike involving ballistic missiles, KABs, and UAVs (Sumy axis) intended to paralyze UAF command and control (C2) and infrastructure in the next 3-6 hours.
Logistics: The seizure of Aquila II creates a medium-term fuel deficit for Russian naval and southern grouping operations. Expect RU to prioritize the protection of remaining "Shadow Fleet" assets.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi noted a stabilization of the front through January (15:10), emphasizing the efficient destruction of enemy personnel and equipment.
Asymmetric Operations: UAF is successfully utilizing high-end optics (thermals) to negate Russian attempts at stealth during night/inclement weather in the Kupyansk and Pokrovsk sectors.
Strategic Communication: The DShV Command has issued an "Official Position" (15:32) to counter potential Russian information operations or rumors regarding frontline stability.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Escalation Rhetoric: High-level officials (Lavrov, Medvedev) are amplifying threats against NATO and the UK (15:14, 15:16) to deter Western support following the Aquila II seizure.
Strategic Divergence Narratives: Russian state media (Operation Z) is promoting claims of US-Ukraine disagreement on war timelines (15:06) to erode domestic and international confidence.
Unconfirmed Claims: TASS reports of UAF mortar strikes on civilian housing in Kakhovka (15:08) are UNCONFIRMED and likely intended to provide a pretext for retaliatory KAB strikes.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Russian DRG activity in the Pokrovsk sector under cover of darkness/weather. UAV harassment over Sumy and Poltava will likely persist to mask ballistic missile preparations.
MDCOA: A coordinated ballistic and cruise missile strike targeting energy infrastructure in Central/Western Ukraine, timed with the peak of the -27°C "Deep Freeze" to maximize humanitarian impact.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of launch platforms for the ballistic threat detected at 15:20Z (Iskander-M vs. North Korean KN-23).
[HIGH] Assessment of RU "massive counterattacks" in Kupyansk; identify if this is a localized tactical shift or a new operational-level offensive.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of remaining sanctioned tankers in the Indian Ocean to predict the next RU logistical pivot.
