UAV INGRESS (CENTRAL UKRAINE): (14:32, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Russian UAV groups have transited through the Nikopol area (Dnipropetrovsk region) and are currently on a northerly/north-westerly heading toward the Kirovohrad region.
INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING (TACTICAL): (14:13, RBK-UA, HIGH) Russian FPV drones conducted a targeted strike against energy repair personnel in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This represents a tactical shift toward preventing grid restoration through direct attrition of technical specialists.
CONTESTED CLAIMS (ZAPORIZHZHIA): (14:19, Southern Defense Forces, MEDIUM) UAF has officially issued a counter-narrative to Russian claims regarding the "capture" of Prydorozhne. Status of the settlement is currently contested/unconfirmed.
DISINFORMATION REFUTATION (KUPYANSK): (14:25, RBK-UA, HIGH) UAF Defense Forces have confirmed that Russian claims of capturing Hlushkivka (near Kupyansk) are false.
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE (KYIV): (14:05, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM) Reports indicate approximately 1,500 apartment buildings in Kyiv remain without heating amid the -27°C freeze.
SIEGE ARTILLERY DEPLOYMENT: (14:09, Ru MoD, MEDIUM) Russian "Zapad" Group of Forces claims the use of 2S4 Tyulpan 240mm self-propelled mortars to strike "underground command posts."
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Kharkiv/Kupyansk Axis:
Information Maneuver: Russian sources attempted to claim the seizure of Hlushkivka. UAF refutation suggests high-intensity localized fighting but no significant change in control measures. (14:25, RBK-UA).
Heavy Fire Support: The reported use of Tyulpan mortars (14:09) indicates Russia is targeting hardened UAF defensive nodes to break the current static lines.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Infrastructure Resilience: Contrary to previous "total destruction" claims, the Slovyansk TPP has reportedly resumed heat supply, indicating effective UAF emergency repair capabilities despite continued shelling (14:29, Alex Parker).
Volunteer Attrition: Russian "Vostok" units report the loss of tactical transport (UAZ-type vehicles) to UAF drones, indicating sustained Ukrainian FPV pressure on Russian frontline logistics (14:04, Colonelcassad).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro):
Aerial Maneuver: Multiple UAV groups are bypassing Nikopol, likely seeking gaps in the air defense screen between Dnipro and Kirovohrad (14:07, 14:32, UAF Air Force).
Zaporizhzhia Contestation: The Russian claim on Prydorozhne is likely a "gray zone" operation designed to force UAF reserve movements in the south (14:19, Southern Defense Forces).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is increasingly using FPV drones not just for military targets, but for "man-hunting" repair crews. This tactic aims to collapse civilian morale by ensuring energy outages remain permanent during the freeze.
Capability Update: Continued reliance on volunteer-funded civilian vehicles (UAZ/Bukhanka) for the "Vostok" group suggests significant official Russian logistical strain at the tactical level for light transport.
Hybrid Maneuver: In the Arctic, the arrival of the "Aleksey Kosygin" in Murmansk (14:23) underscores Russia’s long-term pivot toward Northern Sea Route energy security to bypass Western sanctions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Integrity: UAF remains successful in the information domain, quickly neutralizing "capture" narratives (Hlushkivka/Prydorozhne) before they gain domestic traction.
Air Defense: Effective tracking of the transit of UAV groups from Dnipropetrovsk toward Kirovohrad suggests robust low-altitude radar coverage in the central corridor.
Morale/Personnel: The loss of the Belarusian "Khartiya" volunteer "Moon" (14:06) highlights the continued involvement and high-risk profile of international volunteer formations in the most active sectors.
Information environment / disinformation
"False Capture" Narratives: A coordinated Russian effort is underway to claim the seizure of small settlements (Prydorozhne, Hlushkivka) to simulate momentum during a period of relative frontline stagnation.
Internal Russian Propaganda: Russian state media is highlighting "Arctic Sentinel" (NATO operation in Greenland) to frame the alliance as an aggressor in the North, potentially justifying increased militarization of the Arctic (14:19, TASS).
Domestic Control: The Russian Central Bank’s plan for a unified bank card database (14:27) suggests increased state surveillance over financial transactions, likely to monitor draft evasion or unauthorized foreign funding.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): UAV strikes on energy or logistics hubs in the Kirovohrad region following the current ingress. Continued FPV "hunting" of repair crews in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia axis.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A large-scale ballistic or cruise missile strike timed to coincide with the current heating crisis in Kyiv, aiming to trigger a total grid collapse while temperatures remain at record lows.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of current control status of Prydorozhne—verify if the settlement has entered a "contested" status or remains fully under UAF control.
[HIGH] Technical BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Slovyansk TPP—determine if the reported heat supply is stable or a temporary bypass.
[MEDIUM] Monitoring of NATO "Arctic Sentinel" reports—assess if Russian rhetoric regarding Greenland translates into Northern Fleet movements near the Barents Sea.
