KINETIC STRIKE (DNIPRO): (13:36, Dnipropetrovsk OVA/RBK-UA, HIGH) Confirmed strike on Dnipro city following previous ballistic/UAV alerts. A significant fire is reported at the impact site.
KAB STRIKE INGRESS (KHARKIV): (13:41, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting the Kharkiv region.
DRG NEUTRALIZATION (POKROVSK): (13:59, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH) The 147th Artillery Brigade (7th Corps, DSHV) successfully neutralized a Russian Reconnaissance and Sabotage Group (DRG) north of Pokrovsk ("Triple kill" confirmed).
TECHNICAL THREAT (GLIDE BOMBS): (13:59, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM) Russian sources claim the introduction of the UMPB-5, a modernized glide bomb with increased range and updated strike tactics.
ISR ACTIVITY (ODESA/BLACK SEA): (13:43, UAF Air Force, HIGH) A Russian reconnaissance UAV has been detected in the Black Sea airspace near Zatoka, likely conducting maritime surveillance or BDA.
BALLISTIC THREAT REPRIEVE: (13:40, UAF Air Force, HIGH) The immediate threat of ballistic missile use has been cleared for the moment.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Kharkiv Axis:
Aerial Bombardment: Russian tactical aviation is actively employing KABs. This indicates a shift from long-range ballistic systems to frontline tactical support and area-denial strikes against UAF positions and infrastructure (13:41, UAF Air Force).
2. Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donbas):
Tactical Defense: UAF forces remain high-alert for infiltration. The successful elimination of a DRG north of Pokrovsk by the 147th Artillery Brigade suggests continued Russian attempts to find gaps in the line during the -27°C freeze (13:59, Operativnyi ZSU).
Unconfirmed Armor Loss: Russian sources are circulating manipulated video claims regarding the destruction of an Abrams tank near the "Vostok" Group's AOR (UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE; 13:42, Colonelcassad).
3. Southern Sector (Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
Strike Aftermath: The strike on Dnipro (13:36) has resulted in at least one confirmed fire. This follows the earlier wave of UAVs launched from Kherson.
Energy Sustainment: Zaporizhzhia OVA has finalized an aid agreement to bolster regional energy resilience, viewing energy as a "strategic condition for survival" (13:58, Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Maritime Recon: Russian ISR activity near Zatoka (13:43) suggests a focus on Odesa’s maritime corridors or rail-bridge infrastructure.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Ammunition Evolution: The reported deployment of the UMPB-5 glide bomb (13:59) suggests Russia is seeking to increase the standoff distance for its Su-34/Su-35 fleet, potentially outranging current UAF medium-range air defense assets deployed near the front.
Hybrid Strike Methodology: Russia is currently alternating between ballistic threats (to pin down AD), reconnaissance UAVs (for BDA), and tactical glide bombs (for frontline attrition).
Logistics Degradation (Internal): Russian civil aviation (Rossiya/Aeroflot) is facing fueling issues for long-haul flights (Cuba), requiring route adjustments (14:02, TASS). This indicates secondary effects of sanctions or domestic fuel prioritization for the military.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: Successful coordination between ISR and artillery in the Pokrovsk sector demonstrates high readiness of DSHV (Airborne) units against ground-based infiltration.
Air Defense Management: UAF Air Force is successfully cycling alerts, transitioning from ballistic defense to tactical aviation intercept modes.
Internal Integrity: The reduction of MP Hunko’s sentence from 7 to 4 years (13:35) may create domestic friction regarding the perceived leniency of the judicial system during wartime.
Information environment / disinformation
"Abrams" Narratives: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad) are utilizing stitched/manipulated footage to claim western armor losses to demoralize UAF supporters (13:42).
Geopolitical Shifts: The arrival of US VP Vance in Armenia (13:54, Alex Parker) is being framed by Russian sources as a "multipolar" shift, likely to distract from Russian influence loss in the Caucasus.
Epstein Disinformation: Russian state-aligned channels (Rybar) are amplifying US-centric conspiracy theories (Epstein files/sulfuric acid) to clutter the information space and degrade trust in Western institutions (13:39).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Odesa peripheries to exploit the reconnaissance data gathered by the UAV over Zatoka.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated strike on the fire-fighting and emergency response crews in Dnipro ("double-tap"), followed by a concentrated ground push in the Pokrovsk sector where the DRG was neutralized, testing if the line was softened.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Technical specs and field confirmation of "UMPB-5" impacts—determine if the range increase significantly alters the "safe zone" for UAF tactical reserves.
[HIGH] Assessment of the fire in Dnipro—identify if the target was energy-related or a rail-linked logistics hub.
[MEDIUM] Verification of Russian 11th Army Corps movements in Kharkiv following the KAB strikes—assess if these strikes are prep-fire for a localized assault.
