NEW UAV WAVE (DNIPRO): (13:28, UAF Air Force, HIGH) A group of Russian BpLA (drones) launched from occupied Kherson is currently on a heading toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, following earlier ballistic strikes.
LOGISTICS TARGETING (RAIL): (13:21, Dva Mayora/UA Emergency Services, HIGH) Confirmed strikes against Ukrainian railway infrastructure. Video evidence confirms damage to rail assets, likely intended to disrupt reinforcement flow to the Donbas.
URBAN DESTRUCTION (KURAKHOVE): (13:21, Butusov Plus, HIGH) Ground intelligence and footage confirm Kurakhove has reached "ghost town" status with near-total destruction of infrastructure and civilian evacuation.
LEGAL CLARIFICATION ON MOBILIZATION: (13:07, Tsaplienko/Ombudsman Lubinets, HIGH) The Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman officially stated that Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCC) have no legal authority to detain or hold citizens, addressing recent domestic friction.
ENERGY COST SPIKE: (13:05, Basurin o Glavnom, MEDIUM) Reports indicate industrial electricity prices in Ukraine will reach 15 UAH/kWh on Monday, a near-doubling of previous rates, significantly impacting domestic defense production.
INTERNAL SECURITY INDICTMENTS: (13:15-13:30, Operativnyi ZSU/OGP, HIGH) Ukrainian authorities have indicted a Major in a DSHV (Airborne) brigade for corruption/fraud and the CEO of JSC "Segezha Ukraine" for financial crimes and organizing illegal border crossings.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Border / Kharkiv Axis:
Counter-UAS Activity: Russian "Sever" Group forces (11th Army Corps) are actively targeting UAF reconnaissance UAVs in the Kharkiv region, suggesting an attempt to blind UAF tactical ISR (MoD Russia, 13:03).
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Kurakhove Sector: The town is effectively combat-ineffective as a logistics hub due to catastrophic infrastructure damage. All movement is highly restricted by debris and likely FPV overwatch (Butusov Plus, 13:21).
Alchevsk (Rear): A traffic incident involving multiple casualties was reported (Mash na Donbasse, 13:10). While minor, it reflects degraded road safety in occupied logistics corridors.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
UAV Ingress: Russian forces are using occupied Kherson as a launchpad for deep-penetration UAV strikes targeting the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia corridor (UAF Air Force, 13:28).
Stability Operations: The Zaporizhzhia OVA is processing 1.4 billion UAH in "eRecovery" payments, indicating a concerted effort to maintain civil stability despite proximity to the contact line (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 13:03).
4. Rear / Strategic:
Logistics Interdiction: Russian strikes are increasingly focusing on the railway network (Dva Mayora, 13:21). This correlates with the strategic goal of isolating the Eastern grouping of forces from western supplies and reserves.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: Russia is employing a "layered" strike methodology. Following the 13:00 ballistic strikes, they have immediately launched slow-mover UAVs to saturate air defenses or conduct BDA (Battle Damage Assessment).
Logistics Warfare: The shift toward railway infrastructure suggests an attempt to capitalize on the -27°C weather, where rail transport is the only reliable bulk logistics method left.
Hybrid Operations: Russian-aligned channels (Basurin) are prioritizing the amplification of Ukrainian industrial electricity price hikes to foster economic discontent and demoralize the industrial workforce.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is maintaining high-alert status, actively tracking the ingress of UAV groups from the south.
Institutional Integrity: High-profile arrests of military and industrial leaders (DSHV Major, Segezha CEO) demonstrate an ongoing "clean-up" of the rear to prevent graft from undermining the war effort.
Civil Rights: The Ombudsman’s clarification on TCC powers is a critical move to de-escalate social tensions caused by aggressive mobilization tactics, which Russia has been exploiting for propaganda.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Narratives: Pro-Russian sources are hyper-focused on the 15 UAH/kWh electricity tariff, positioning it as a "collapse" of the Ukrainian domestic economy.
Diplomatic Ambiguity: Kremlin refusal to discuss 2025 Anchorage negotiation details (Colonelcassad, 13:04) is likely intended to maintain strategic ambiguity and keep the Western "peace narrative" off-balance.
Fundraising: Civil society remains highly engaged, with significant individual donations still flowing into drone and hardware funds (Sternenko, 13:06).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The UAV group currently inbound from Kherson will likely target Dnipro's energy or rail sub-stations during the night to maximize the impact of the current freeze.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated "double-tap" strike on railway repair crews attempting to fix the damage reported at 13:21, combined with a local ground push in the Kurakhove sector while logistics are snarled.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Precise locations of the railway infrastructure hits—assess the impact on "heavy" logistics (tanks/ammunition) moving toward the Pokrovsk/Kurakhove axis.
[HIGH] Confirmation of the 15 UAH/kWh industrial electricity rate—determine if this applies to state-owned defense enterprises or only private industry.
[MEDIUM] Status of the Russian 5th Army's ground progress near Zaliznychne following their UAV preparation—aerial recon needed to confirm if a ground assault has commenced.
