STRATEGIC LOGISTICAL STRIKE: (11:34, GenStab ZSU, HIGH) UAF confirmed the destruction of approximately 6,000 Russian FPV drones and components across three containers at a storage facility in Rostov. This represents a massive disruption to Russian tactical UAS capacity.
COMMAND NODE NEUTRALIZATION: (11:40, GenStab ZSU, HIGH) A Russian command post was successfully struck near Sudzha (Kursk Oblast), further degrading C2 in the border region.
HVT STATUS UPDATE: (11:47, TASS, MEDIUM) Russian state media reports Deputy Head of the GRU, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseev, is in "stable" condition. RU authorities have identified a suspect (Serebritskaya) linked to the assassination attempt in the LNR (11:58, TASS, MEDIUM).
ARMOR LOSS CLAIM: (11:50, Poddubny/WarGonzo, LOW/UNCONFIRMED) Russian sources claim the destruction of an Australian-supplied M1 Abrams tank near Huliaipole via FPV drone strikes.
HYBRID THREAT (BELARUS): (11:44, WarGonzo/SVR, MEDIUM) The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has escalated rhetoric claiming US, UK, German, and Polish involvement in a planned coup in Belarus.
FUEL INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE: (11:40, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) Russian drones reportedly struck a fuel and lubricant (POL) storage facility in Kachanovo, Poltava Oblast.
AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT: (11:38, Anatoliy "Stirlitz" Stefan, HIGH) UAF successfully downed a Russian "Molniya" drone over Kostyantynivka; meanwhile, new "Shahed" incursions are moving south through Chernihiv (11:34, Air Force).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Border / Kursk-Sudzha Axis:
Battlefield Geometry: The strike on the Sudzha command post (11:40, GenStab ZSU) suggests UAF is systematically targeting the C2 nodes supporting Russian border security and potential offensive assemblies in the north.
Enemy Disposition: Continued loitering of Il-78 tankers (per previous daily report) and the detection of new UAVs over Chernihiv (11:34) indicate persistent Russian aerial reconnaissance and strike posture.
2. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole):
Ground Operations: High-intensity tactical activity near Huliaipole. The claim of a destroyed Australian Abrams (11:50) suggests Russian forces are prioritizing the hunt for Western-donated heavy armor using the 35th Army's FPV units.
Energy/Logistics: Zaporizhzhiaoblenergo is attempting to stabilize the regional grid amid ongoing kinetic pressure and -27°C temperatures (12:00, Zaporizhzhia OVA).
3. Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Air Defense: Successful interception of a "Molniya" drone in Kostyantynivka (11:38) indicates UAF tactical AD remains alert despite systemic pressure on the national power grid and missile stocks.
Civilian Impact: A night attack on Shakhtarske (Dnipropetrovsk border) resulted in 9 hospitalizations (11:56, Dnipropetrovsk OVA), highlighting continued Russian targeting of settlements in the immediate rear.
4. Russian Rear / Rostov-on-Don:
Logistical Impact: The loss of 6,000 FPV drones in Rostov is a significant blow to the 7th Guards Air Assault Division and other units staged for the Donbas/Zaporizhzhia fronts (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.42). This will likely result in a localized 48-72 hour "drone drought" for certain Russian tactical units until stocks are replenished.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is increasingly leveraging the "SVR narrative" (11:44) regarding Belarus to create a perceived threat on the northern flank, likely intended to fix UAF reserves away from the active southern and eastern fronts.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of "Molniya" drones and persistent FPV strikes on armor suggests a continued shift toward attritional, UAS-led warfare to compensate for infantry vulnerabilities in the deep freeze.
Propaganda: RU media is weaponizing Western reporting (Financial Times) to claim UAF air defense exhaustion (12:01), aiming to undermine morale and pressure Western allies.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF continues to demonstrate high-end "deep strike" capability, reaching into Rostov and Kursk to hit high-value logistical and C2 targets.
Information Defense: The State Emergency Service (DSNS) successfully neutralized a disinformation campaign regarding "mass poisonings" in Poltava (11:36, 11:41), illustrating proactive management of the internal cognitive domain.
Economic Resilience: The UAH remains relatively stable against the USD (~43 UAH/USD), providing a degree of internal financial predictability despite infrastructure damage (12:02, RBC-Ukraine).
Information environment / disinformation
Belarusian Pretext: The SVR-led claims of Western-backed coups (11:44) are a high-priority disinformation thread designed to justify Russian military integration with Belarus.
Domestic RU Crackdown: Legal actions against anti-war activists in Samara (11:54) and "terror" suspects in Ufa (11:35) indicate the Kremlin is tightening internal security to prevent domestic instability from mirroring the energy crisis.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian energy and POL storage in response to the Rostov drone depot loss. Continued movement of "Shahed" UAVs from the north (Chernihiv) toward central hubs.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated Russian/Belarusian military "exercise" or deployment on the northern border, triggered by the SVR's "coup" narrative, forcing a major UAF reallocation of forces during the energy crisis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Technical confirmation of the reported Abrams loss near Huliaipole (visual confirmation or BDA needed).
[HIGH] Assessment of RU logistical surge capacity—how quickly can 6,000 FPV drones be replaced from central stocks or Iranian/Chinese supply lines?
[MEDIUM] Verification of the "stable" condition of Gen. Alekseev—is he still functional for operational C2?
[MEDIUM] Monitoring of Belarusian troop movements in response to the SVR narrative.
