DEEP STRIKE SUCCESS: (11:28, General Staff ZSU, HIGH) UAF confirmed successful strikes on a command post, an ammunition depot, and a UAV storage facility located within Russian territory.
ZAPORIZHZHIA COUNTER-SABOTAGE/OFFENSIVE: (11:29, DeepState, MEDIUM) UAF forces have successfully "cleared" the settlement of Prydorozhne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This coincides with Russian reports (11:19, Alex Parker Returns, LOW) of a UAF counter-push toward Ternovate facilitated by heavy fog and localized Starlink outages.
EXPANDED FRENCH MILITARY AID: (11:27, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH) France has officially pledged Mirage fighter jets, AASM Hammer guided bombs, and SCALP missiles to Ukraine, significantly enhancing long-range strike capabilities.
HVT CONFIRMATION: (11:18, ASTRA, HIGH) Death of Hayk "Abrek" Gasparyan, commander of the "Arbat" battalion, confirmed. This represents a loss of experienced irregular leadership for Russian proxy forces.
ENERGY GRID INSTABILITY: (11:04, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH) Ukrenergo has introduced emergency power outages across several regions due to systemic damage, exacerbating the impact of the current -27°C deep freeze.
HYBRID THREAT (ARCTIC): (11:15, Operativnyi ZSU/DW, MEDIUM) Reports indicate a buildup of Russian military presence in the Arctic, specifically threatening the Svalbard archipelago, suggesting a multi-domain diversion or expansion of the conflict zone.
Battlefield Geometry: A potential tactical shift is underway. DeepState reports the "clearing" of Prydorozhne, suggesting UAF is regaining initiative in localized sectors.
Environmental Factors: Heavy fog is being exploited by UAF for movement (11:19, Alex Parker Returns).
Control Measures: Russian sources report Starlink outages in this sector, which may indicate Russian Electronic Warfare (EW) successes or technical failures, though Russian partisan channels are blaming "betrayals" or leadership failures for the UAF advance toward Ternovate.
2. Donetsk Axis (Pokrovsk):
Ground Operations: High-intensity attrition continues. Drone footage (11:12, Butusov Plus) shows Russian infantry under significant pressure from FPV drones, indicating UAF maintains tactical UAS superiority in the immediate contact zone despite the cold.
3. Russian Rear/Border Regions:
Deep Strikes: The General Staff's report of striking a UAV warehouse inside Russia (11:28) indicates a successful effort to degrade Russian long-range strike capacity at the source.
Air Defense: "Drone danger" alerts were cleared in Bryansk (11:32, AV Bogomaz), suggesting a temporary pause or neutralization of UAF aerial incursions in the northern border region.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation remains active; a "high-speed target" (likely a missile) was detected moving north through Zaporizhzhia (11:25, Air Force).
Internal Security: Reports of fake terror threats in "Moscow-City" (11:09, TASS) and continued crackdowns on "Baimak case" protesters (11:04, Sever.Realii) point to heightened internal paranoia and security theatre within the Russian Federation.
Course of Action: Russia is increasingly using the SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service) to push narratives of Western-backed coups in Belarus (11:20, Colonelcassad; 11:31, WarGonzo). This likely serves as a pretext for further integration of Belarusian forces or a Russian troop buildup on the northern Ukrainian flank.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF is demonstrating a high degree of adaptability by using poor visibility (fog) to conduct localized counter-attacks in the south.
Resource Integration: The upcoming integration of French Mirage jets and AASM Hammer bombs (11:27) will allow for high-precision stand-off strikes, potentially mitigating the risks posed by Russian KABs.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Distraction: Russian state media is attempting to amplify domestic political instability in the UK, reporting rumors of PM Keir Starmer's resignation (11:30, Operatsiya Z).
Olympic Neutralization: TASS is focused on trivializing Russian "presence" at the Olympics via product placement (yogurt) and highlighting logistical failures (damaged medals), likely to soothe domestic resentment over the ban on Russian national symbols.
Propaganda: Ukrainian channels are effectively using drone footage of fleeing Russian soldiers to maintain domestic morale and highlight Russian tactical vulnerabilities (11:12, Butusov Plus).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAF pressure in the Zaporizhzhia sector using the "fog of war" to consolidate gains in Prydorozhne. Russia will likely respond with increased ballistic/missile fire (High-speed targets) to disrupt UAF logistics.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A Russian escalation in the Arctic or a false-flag operation in Belarus to force UAF to divert resources from the Donbas/Zaporizhzhia fronts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Corroboration of the reported UAF advance to Ternovate.
[HIGH] Technical verification of the "Starlink outages" reported by Russian sources—identify if this is localized EW or a systemic issue.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of the damage to the RU UAV warehouse (General Staff report) to determine the likely reduction in "Shahed" or drone strike frequency over the next 48 hours.
[LOW] Verification of the "aviation incident" hinted at by Fighterbomber (11:24) to determine if a Russian airframe was lost to friendly fire or technical failure.
