AIRBASE STRIKE CLAIM: (10:33, Дневник Десантника, LOW) Russian sources claim a significant strike on a Ukrainian airbase and a paratrooper (DShV) training center in the Kyiv region. UNCONFIRMED.
ABRAMS LOSS CLAIM: (10:47, Воин DV / 10:49, ТАСС, MEDIUM) Russian MoD claims the destruction of an M1 Abrams tank and its crew near Zaliznychne (Huliaypole direction) via drone operators from the "Vostok" Group.
JOINT DEFENSE PRODUCTION: (10:47, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) Ukraine and France have signed a Letter of Intent for joint weapons production on both Ukrainian and French soil, signaling a long-term shift in sustainment strategy.
COUNTER-SABOTAGE SUCCESS: (10:41, РБК-Україна, HIGH) Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted and neutralized a Russian Sabotage and Reconnaissance Group (DRG) near Pokrovsk.
DShV CORRUPTION PROBE: (11:00, Офіс Генерального прокурора, HIGH) A Logistics Major within a DShV brigade has been detained for a corruption scheme involving the supply of substandard food to troops.
ECONOMIC ATTRITION: (10:40, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM) Intelligence indicates Russian budget deficits have exceeded $11 billion due to successful Ukrainian strikes on oil refining infrastructure (NPZ).
RUSSIAN TACTICAL INNOVATION: (10:59, Два майора, MEDIUM) Russian forces are testing a new ground robotic complex equipped with "anti-FPV grills" and rotating electronic/mechanical protection devices.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Kharkiv Sector:
UAS Activity: Continued Russian drone attacks on the city (10:36, Олег Синєгубов). This follows the morning's deployment of "Molniya" drones, suggesting a sustained aerial pressure campaign to exhaust local AD.
2. Donetsk Axis (Pokrovsk/Huliaypole):
Ground Operations: High-intensity engagements near Pokrovsk. The "Triple Kill" report (10:41, РБК-Україна) confirms that Russian DRGs are actively probing Ukrainian lines, likely seeking gaps in the frozen terrain.
Aviation: Russian tactical aviation has initiated fresh launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against targets in Donetsk Oblast (10:46, Air Force).
Armored Attrition: The claimed loss of an M1 Abrams near Zaliznychne (10:47, Воин DV) is currently being assessed. If confirmed, it indicates Russian UAS operators are effectively hunting high-value Western armor in the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk border region.
3. Southern Sector:
Interdiction: State Border Guard Service (DPSU) units successfully struck Russian assets, including a boat, an ATV, a transport vehicle, and communication antennas (10:41, ЦАПЛІЄНКО). This demonstrates effective Ukrainian ISR and localized precision strike capabilities despite the -27°C freeze.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Technical Adaptation: The presentation of a ground robotic system with specific FPV-countermeasures (10:59, Два майора) indicates the Russian MoD is prioritizing unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) survivability for frontline logistics or assault support.
Information Control: Continued warnings of Telegram instability (10:46, Старше Эдды) and State Duma moves against "internet fraudsters" (10:35, TASS) reinforce the assessment of an imminent state-led disruption of non-sanctioned communication channels.
Internal Friction: Extreme vitriol from Russian ultra-nationalist channels (10:44, Alex Parker Returns) regarding "betrayals" by military leadership and the "surrender" of previous footholds (Kherson, Kharkiv) suggests widening cracks in the pro-war information space.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Institutional Integrity: The arrest of a DShV Logistics Major (11:00, Gen. Prosecutor) highlights ongoing efforts to purge corruption that directly impacts frontline readiness. While a negative event, the public prosecution serves as a deterrent against procurement fraud.
Strategic Sustainment: The France-Ukraine joint production agreement (10:47) is a critical development for ensuring a steady flow of NATO-standard munitions and systems, reducing reliance on direct transfers.
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Signaling: The Kremlin (via Peskov) is floating "breakthroughs in negotiations" (10:37, РБК-Україна) to project a desire for peace to international audiences, while simultaneously launching KAB strikes.
International Distraction: Russian state media is amplifying US-Cuba tensions (10:34, Alex Parker Returns) and "European Pentagon" narratives (11:01, TASS) to portray Western alliances as overstretched or fracturing.
Martyrdom Narrative: Russian sources are mourning the death of a commander nicknamed "Abrek" (10:55, WarGonzo), potentially the same "Arbat" battalion figure mentioned in the previous report, used to bolster domestic morale.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB strikes across the Donetsk axis. Russian DRGs will likely maintain high activity near Pokrovsk to exploit weather-related visibility drops.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A large-scale missile/UAS strike on Ukrainian airbases, following the "probing" claims made by Russian milbloggers this morning.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Confirmation of M1 Abrams status near Zaliznychne.
[HIGH] Damage assessment of reported strikes on airbases in the Kyiv region.
[MEDIUM] Evaluation of the Russian ground robotic complex's effectiveness against standard UAF FPV drones.
[MEDIUM] Impact of food supply corruption on the operational readiness of the affected DShV brigade.
