POKROVSK SECTOR DETERIORATION: (09:50, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, HIGH) Operational situation near Pokrovsk is reported as worsening; Russian MoD confirms coordinated artillery-infantry assaults in this direction (10:01, MoD Russia).
ZAPORIZHZHIA COUNTER-CLAIM: (09:35, Сили оборони Півдня України, MEDIUM) Ukrainian forces claim "Ternuvate is ours," directly contesting earlier Russian claims of territorial gains between Huliaipole and Dorozhnianka.
MOTHER-SHIP UAV DEPLOYMENT: (09:51, Военкор Котенок, MEDIUM) Russian forces are reportedly using the "Gerbera" UAV as a carrier platform to launch FPV strike drones deeper behind friendly lines.
ENERGY AUDIT REVEALS DEFICITS: (09:50, РБК-Україна, HIGH) Inspections following Lviv hospital blackouts have identified critical systemic "shortcomings" in the regional energy grid.
INTERNAL FISCAL FRICTION: (09:58, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM) Reports indicate a cabinet-level split as Minister Svyrydenko refuses to submit the VAT project for small businesses (FOPs) to the Rada.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Pokrovsk Axis (Donetsk Oblast):
Ground Operations: Russian forces have intensified combined arms pressure. Official Russian footage shows 152mm Giatsint-B batteries supporting infantry breakthroughs (10:01, MoD Russia).
UAF Attrition: Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian Ground Robotic Transport Complex (NRTK) near Kucherov Yar using FPV drones (10:01, Народная милиция ДНР). This indicates a high-intensity "robotics duel" in the sector.
2. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Contested Terrain: The situation remains fluid. While Russian sources released tactical maps of the eastern flank (10:01, Военкор Котенок), the UAF Southern Command’s claim on Ternuvate (09:35) suggests a successful local counter-attack or the stabilization of the "grey zone."
Aerial Bombardment: VKS tactical aviation has conducted secondary launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against regional targets (09:41, UA Air Force).
3. Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy):
UAV Incursion: A Russian strike UAV was detected in northern Chernihiv, tracking a westward course (09:58, UA Air Force).
Border Stability: Repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk (reported at 09:01) appear to have yielded to a period of tactical consolidation by UAF.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Innovation: The deployment of "Gerbera" carrier UAVs represents a significant threat to UAF rear-area logistics. By using a larger UAV to ferry FPV drones, Russia is effectively extending the "kill web" beyond the standard 5-10km FPV range.
Information Maneuver: The Kremlin is increasingly leaning into the "Anchorage Understandings" narrative (10:00, Alex Parker Returns), suggesting a secret deal with the US. Assessment: This is a classic "maskirovka" intended to demoralize UAF frontline troops and induce political instability in Kyiv.
Capability Assessment: Despite claims of 1,075 UAF casualties in 24 hours (09:57, TASS - UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE), Russian state TV analysts are openly acknowledging Ukrainian "stubbornness" and combat proficiency (09:42, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС), suggesting a growing internal realization that a rapid breakthrough remains unlikely.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Territorial Defense: Successful retention/reclamation of Ternuvate (09:35) provides a necessary buffer for the Huliaipole defense line.
Civil-Military Continuity: The Ministry of Education has launched the "Expert School" program (09:45, Zaporizhzhia OVA), signaling an attempt to maintain state functions in frontline regions despite heavy KAB pressure.
Infrastructure Reform: The post-blackout audit in Lviv (09:50) is a critical step toward remediating "city-kill" vulnerabilities, though the identified "shortcomings" suggest significant repair work is required.
Information environment / disinformation
"Rolex-Gate": Pro-Russian channels are amplifying images of the Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel wearing a high-value watch (09:56, Басурин о главном) to fuel narratives of "wartime corruption."
Diplomatic Distraction: Peskov’s statements regarding US-Cuba relations (09:35, TASS) and potential Saudi Arabian visa-free travel (09:52, TASS) are intended to project an image of "business as usual" and global influence despite Western sanctions.
Psychological Ops: Russian military bloggers are attempting to discredit Ukrainian internal grievance reporting by labeling hospital complaints as "CIPsO" (Ukrainian PsyOps) fabrications (09:39, Colonelcassad).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued Russian attempts to exploit the deteriorating situation near Pokrovsk with high-volume artillery and KAB support. Expect further "Gerbera" carrier-UAV sightings as Russia tests the depth of UAF electronic warfare coverage.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A localized collapse in the Pokrovsk sector if Russian artillery successfully suppresses Ukrainian drone teams (NRTK units), leading to a rapid tactical envelopment of key defensive nodes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Verification of current control lines in Ternuvate vs. Huliaipole. Need BDA to confirm if Russian forces have been pushed back to 24h baselines.
[HIGH] Signal intelligence (SIGINT) on carrier-UAV frequencies. Determine the control link specifications for the "Gerbera" to develop EW countermeasures.
[MEDIUM] Impact of the Cabinet of Ministers' tax dispute on military funding timelines. Confirm if the 5% military fee remains viable without the FOP VAT project.
