NORTHERN DEFENSIVE SUCCESS: (09:01, GS AFU, HIGH) Ukrainian forces successfully repelled three Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions.
SOUTHERN AXIS DISPUTE: (09:13, Mash na Donbasse, MEDIUM) Russian sources claim to have seized control of the territory between Huliaipole and Dorozhnianka in the Zaporizhzhia region. UAF has not confirmed this loss of terrain.
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS: (09:30, Operatsiya Z/Lviv Mayor, HIGH) Heavy damage to energy infrastructure in Lviv has left over 1,100 high-rise buildings without heating for the remainder of the winter. Similar heating disruptions are reported in Kyiv (09:26, TASS, MEDIUM).
STRATEGIC AIR DEFENSE DIPLOMACY: (09:20, UA Air Force, HIGH) A French Ministry of Defense delegation, led by Minister Catherine Vautrin, is in Ukraine specifically to coordinate air defense capabilities and future aviation support.
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEEP STRIKES: (09:31, STERNENKO, MEDIUM) Reported losses for Russian oil companies due to Ukrainian UAV strikes on refineries have exceeded 1 trillion rubles.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern / Border Axis (Sumy, Kursk, Kharkiv):
Ground Ops: UAF General Staff reports a successful defense against three Russian assaults in the Sumy/Kursk border regions (09:01, GS AFU).
Air Strikes: VKS tactical aviation has launched a new wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting the Kharkiv region (09:07, UA Air Force).
Rear Security: Russian state media is floating narratives that suspects in the Gen. Alekseev assassination attempt are sheltering in Kharkiv to justify potential increased strikes or internal security operations (09:14, TASS).
2. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Territorial Gains (Claimed): Russian forces claim to have closed the gap between Huliaipole and Dorozhnianka (09:13, Mash na Donbasse). This remains UNCONFIRMED by friendly sources but suggests a localized Russian push.
Air Activity: Active KAB strikes reported across the Zaporizhzhia region (09:10, UA Air Force).
UAV Incursion: Shahed-type UAVs (Geran) are currently detected moving toward Vilniansk from the east (09:31, UA Air Force).
3. Strategic Rear / Infrastructure:
Lviv: Authorities report a "grave" situation following energy strikes; long-term heating failure for a significant portion of the city (09:30, Operatsiya Z).
Kyiv: Energy Research Center reports over 1,100 buildings without heat (09:26, TASS).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation (UGVs): Russian forces are deploying the "Courier" Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) equipped with improvised "mangal" cage armor and propellers (09:04, Colonelcassad). This indicates a move toward roboticizing frontline logistics and fire support to mitigate high personnel losses.
Air Tactics: Continued reliance on KABs indicates the VKS is maintaining a high sortie rate to compensate for stalled ground movements in the "deep freeze."
Course of Action: The combination of Shahed strikes in the south and KAB strikes in the north suggests a coordinated effort to stretch UA air defense ahead of the French delegation’s technical assessment.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Strengthening: The visit by the French MoD (09:20) is a critical indicator of upcoming transfers of SAMP/T or Crotale systems and potential Mirage 2000 integration.
Institutional Integrity: The Office of the Prosecutor General has launched a digital portal for entrepreneurs to report corruption in public tenders (09:20, GP Office). This aligns with the "Beautiful Tax Bill" (military fee at 5%) being prepared for the Rada (09:22, RBK-Ukr) to stabilize wartime financing.
Information environment / disinformation
"Anchorage Deal" Narrative: (09:27, SpN Akhmat/Lavrov, LOW) Russian MFA claims a secret US-Russia agreement in Anchorage for Ukraine to cede the Donbas. Assessment: High-level disinformation intended to undermine Ukrainian trust in US support.
Peace Negotiation Rumors: (09:03, Fighterbomber, LOW) Claims of a March peace draft and May elections/referendum are circulating. This is likely a "maskirovka" operation to encourage domestic complacency or international pressure on Kyiv.
Mobilization Critique: (09:18, Operatsiya Z/Szijjártó, MEDIUM) Hungarian FM Szijjártó is being amplified by Russian channels for criticizing Ukrainian mobilization tactics as "hunting people."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued Shahed and KAB pressure on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Russian forces will attempt to consolidate the claimed gain near Huliaipole.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A secondary wave of cruise missiles targeting the already fragile Lviv and Kyiv heating grids while temperatures remain low, potentially triggering a localized humanitarian crisis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] BDA/Verification of the Huliaipole-Dorozhnianka sector. Confirm if UAF lines have been breached or if this is a "grey zone" expansion.
[HIGH] Technical specs on the "Courier" UGV modifications. Determine if the "propeller" mentioned is for EW disruption or a cooling mechanism for high-output batteries.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Indian energy trade data to confirm the Bloomberg report of a 50% reduction in Russian oil imports. This would signal a major shift in Russian war-funding capability.
