METEOROLOGICAL SHIFT: (08:33, RBK-Ukr, HIGH) Synopticians report the "last night of fierce cold." Temperatures are beginning to rise, transitioning the operational environment from the "deep freeze" toward potentially increased ground mobility or muddy conditions (rasputitsa).
TECHNICAL VALIDATION - "MOTHER DRONE": (08:34, Operativno ZSU, HIGH) Video evidence confirms Russian forces are utilizing the "Gerbera" UAV as a "mother drone" carrier for FPV strike assets. This confirms previous reports of this tactical evolution.
LOGISTICS INTERDICTION: (08:51, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM) Russian forces targeted and reportedly damaged railway and logistics infrastructure in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
INTERNAL DEFENSE AUDIT: (09:00, General Prosecutor UA, HIGH) Ukrainian authorities have identified 3.2 billion UAH ($~84M) in losses related to corrupt defense procurement.
VKS AIR STRIKE SURGE: (09:00, GS AFU, HIGH) Russian aviation has expanded strike operations into the Dnipropetrovsk region (Kolomiytsi) and intensified strikes across multiple settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region.
PSYOP ALERT - "SLAVIANSK WITHDRAWAL": (08:57, TASS, LOW/UNCONFIRMED) Pro-Russian military "experts" claim Ukrainian forces have fled Slaviansk and Kramatorsk due to fear of an offensive. This is assessed as disinformation; no tactical evidence supports this claim.
Logistics: Significant strikes reported on railway infrastructure (08:51, Operatsiya Z). This may be an attempt to disrupt reinforcements following the reported Russian push toward the Oskil River.
Slobozhanskyi: Clashes confirmed near Vovchansk and Starytsya. Russian reconnaissance or small-unit actions are active towards Fyholivka.
2. Kupyansk / Lyman Axis:
Kupyansk: High-intensity combat reported near Kupyansk, Podoly, and Petropavlivka. This matches previous indicators of Russian efforts to isolate the Kupyansk pocket.
Lyman: Intense fighting reported near Drobysheve and Zarichne, extending toward the settlement of Lyman.
3. Central Donbas (Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk):
Sloviansk/Kramatorsk: Combat reported near Zakitne and Orikhovo-Vasylivka. Despite Russian claims of UAF withdrawal (08:57, TASS), GS AFU reports indicate active defensive engagements.
Pokrovsk: Remained the most active sector over the last 24h with clashes across 20+ settlements (Rodynske, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk). Russian forces are maintaining high-tempo pressure to prevent UAF consolidation.
4. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia, Orikhiv):
Aviation: VKS activity is heavily concentrated on Zelena Dibrova, Barvinivka, and Vozdvyzhivka.
Ground: Localized clashes near Kamyanske and Scherbaky indicate Russian attempts to probe defensive lines as the weather breaks.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The "Gerbera" mother-drone video (08:34) highlights a mature capability to extend the range of FPV drones. This allows Russian forces to strike rear-area logistics (like the Sumy rail targets) while keeping the primary pilot/link station further from the front line.
Course of Action: With the "deep freeze" ending, the enemy is likely pivoting from standoff KAB/UAV strikes toward increased armored and infantry assaults, specifically targeting the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk hubs.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Institutional Integrity: The General Prosecutor’s report on "Unfair Procurement" (09:00) indicates a high-level crackdown on defense corruption, likely aimed at maintaining Western donor confidence and optimizing resource allocation.
Mobilization/Manpower: The TCC has issued an "immediate" call for men with deferment rights to update their administrative status (08:51, RBK-Ukr), suggesting a push for better personnel accounting.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Propaganda: The narrative that UAF forces are "fleeing" major cities (Slaviansk/Kramatorsk) is being pushed by TASS and Solovyov Live to cause panic and degrade morale as the weather shifts.
Economic Warfare: Pro-Russian channels (Basurin, 08:55) are weaponizing Eurostat data on Ukrainian wages to frame EU candidacy as economically detrimental, aiming to erode domestic support for European integration.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Russian forces will conduct a BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Sumy/Chernihiv rail strikes and likely follow up with "Gerbera"-deployed FPV strikes on localized repair crews.
Tactical Shift: As temperatures rise above -20°C, expect a surge in Russian reconnaissance-in-force operations in the Kupyansk sector.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Assess the operational status of the Sumy and Chernihiv railway lines. Determine the extent of the disruption to UAF logistics.
[HIGH] SIGINT collection on the "Gerbera" control frequencies. Video evidence confirms deployment; technical exploitation of the "mother-to-FPV" handoff frequency is required for EW counter-measures.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for any actual UAF movement near Slaviansk to definitively debunk the TASS "withdrawal" narrative with ground-truth imagery.
