NEW UAV TACTIC - "MOTHERSHIP" DEPLOYMENT: (08:28, Tsaplienko/Sternenko, HIGH) Russian forces are utilizing "Gerbera" type winged UAVs as carriers to transport and launch FPV strike drones deep behind lines. A deployment was recorded over civilian areas in Sumy.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF TERRITORIAL GAIN: (08:30, MoD Russia, LOW) The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the 26th Tank Regiment has "liberated" Glushkovka in the Kharkiv region. This remains UNCONFIRMED by Ukrainian sources.
KAB STRIKE EXPANSION: (08:05-08:26, AFU Air Force, HIGH) Guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes have been confirmed in Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, following earlier strikes in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk.
WORSENING HYBRID NARRATIVE (ANCHORAGE DEAL): (08:20, Colonelcassad/Parker, HIGH CONFIDENCE in narrative existence) Pro-Russian channels are heavily amplifying a claim that a "deal" was struck in Anchorage between Putin and the US to trade the Donbas for a freeze in hostilities. This appears to be a coordinated disinformation campaign to undermine Ukrainian resolve and Western unity.
FSB COUNTER-ASSASSINATION CLAIM: (08:06, Kotsnews, LOW) The FSB claims to have prevented an SBU assassination attempt on Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseev. Note: This follows earlier reports of Alekseev being in "serious condition."
SPACE WEATHER ALERT: (08:17, TASS/IPG, HIGH) An M-class solar flare occurred this morning, lasting 30 minutes. Potential for minor disruptions in high-frequency (HF) radio communications and GPS signals.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is transitioning as the "deep freeze" (-20°C to -27°C) is forecasted to end shortly (08:08, Natalka Didenko). This will likely lead to increased ground mobility as the soil hardens further or turns to mud (rasputitsa), depending on the rate of warming.
Battlefield Geometry: Russian forces are maintaining pressure on the Kupyansk axis (Glushkovka/Petropavlivka) while expanding the use of standoff KAB strikes to compensate for limited ground movement during the extreme cold.
Electronic Environment: The introduction of "Gerbera" mothership UAVs suggests an attempt to bypass Ukrainian short-range Electronic Warfare (EW) by launching FPVs closer to targets from an aerial platform.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Threat Assessment & Capabilities:
Tactical Adaptation (UAVs): The use of the "Gerbera" as an FPV carrier (08:32, Deisatnik) is a significant evolution. It increases the effective range of FPV drones and allows for "top-down" delivery that can bypass terrestrial jamming screens.
Aviation: The VKS is maintaining a high sortie rate for KAB deliveries. The focus on Kharkiv and Donetsk suggests a preparation for renewed ground assaults as the weather breaks.
Ground Forces: If the claim regarding Glushkovka (Kharkov region) is true, it indicates a Russian push toward the Oskil River, threatening Ukrainian logistics in the Kupyansk sector.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Volunteer Support: Pro-Russian "ZOV LNR" groups continue to deliver tactical supplies (08:05, Colonelcassad), indicating a continued reliance on non-state logistics for small-unit equipment (radios, power stations).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Operational Successes:
Air Defense: AFU confirmed the neutralization of 116 UAVs from the overnight wave (08:17, General Staff). Pilot "Morgan" (08:18) remains a high-value asset for cruise missile interception, demonstrating manual interception capabilities in extreme weather.
Southern Sector Attrition: Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine report destroying nearly 200 personnel and 50 vehicles in the last 24 hours (08:28), suggesting successful defensive operations and counter-battery fire despite the freeze.
Resource Constraints:
Internal Security: Russian SVR claims of a "Western-backed coup" in Belarus (08:26) may be a pretext for increased Russian troop presence on Ukraine’s northern border, potentially forcing the UAF to redirect reserves.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Coordinated Disinformation: The "Anchorage Deal" narrative is the current primary effort. It aims to portray Ukraine as a pawn in US-Russia negotiations.
Domestic Russian Repression: Increasing legal pressure on cultural figures (Slepakov, Oxxxymiron) and intensified recruitment drives in Novosibirsk (08:16) suggest the Kremlin is tightening internal control to sustain a long-term war effort.
Anti-Western Narrative: Maria Zakharova’s claims of "esoteric fascism" (08:22) and SVR claims regarding Belarus (08:26) indicate a shift toward more aggressive ideological rhetoric.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): As the extreme cold ends, Russian forces will likely increase localized ground assaults in the Kupyansk-Petropavlivka sector to capitalize on reported gains in Glushkovka. Expect continued "Gerbera" mothership tests in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A Russian breakthrough in the Glushkovka area that reaches the Oskil River, combined with a "mothership" UAV campaign targeting Ukrainian rear-area logistics hubs, leading to a localized collapse of the Kupyansk pocket.
Decision Points: Warming temperatures over the next 48-72 hours will dictate the feasibility of heavy armor employment.
6. Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the status of Glushkovka (Kharkiv region). Request satellite imagery or drone reconnaissance to confirm or refute Russian MoD claims.
[HIGH] Gather technical specs on the "Gerbera" mothership link. Determine the frequency used for the FPV launch to update EW jamming profiles.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian troop movements in Belarus following the SVR "coup" allegations to determine if this is a maskirovka for a northern axis threat.
