ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR ESCALATION: Direct evidence of Russian 35th Army (Group "Vostok") drone strikes and 305th Artillery Brigade (5th Army) fire missions against UAF reinforcements and firing positions. (Colonelcassad, 11:21; Voin DV, 11:30; HIGH).
STARLINK SECURITY BREACH: Ukrainian MoD issued an official warning to personnel regarding criminal liability for assisting Russian forces in bypassing Starlink blocks. This confirms active Russian efforts to subvert the "White List" protocols mentioned in previous reports. (ASTRA, 11:03; HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE GROUND ASSAULT: Confirmed localized Russian ground assault in the Huliaipole - Dobropillya sector occurring on Feb 7, indicating the transition from "probing" to active offensive maneuvers. (Slyvochniy Kapriz, 11:13; HIGH).
RUSSIAN C2 STABILITY: Reports continue regarding an assassination attempt on Russian General Vladimir Alekseev. Suspects (Vasin, Serebritskaya) have been identified, with Serebritskaya reportedly operating from within the same residential building as the General. (TASS, 11:06, 11:07, 11:14; MEDIUM).
KHERSON AERIAL THREAT: Detection of a "high-speed target" (likely cruise missile or Kh-31/59) inbound toward Kherson. (Air Force UA, 11:27; HIGH).
RU PERSONNEL CAPTURE: Video evidence of a captured Russian serviceman from the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (Unit 11740), providing HUMINT on low morale and structural failures. (Operativniy ZSU, 11:16; MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasing in the South, specifically the Zaporizhzhia axis. The environment remains critically cold (-27°C), but Russian forces are now committing organic army-level assets (35th and 5th Combined Arms Armies) to suppress Ukrainian reinforcements.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline in Zaporizhzhia is becoming highly kinetic. The Huliaipole-Dobropillya vector is now an active ground combat zone.
Command & Control: Russian C2 is likely distracted by internal security investigations following the attempt on General Alekseev's life. Conversely, Ukrainian C2 is navigating significant Starlink reliability issues compounded by internal security threats.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: In Zaporizhzhia, Russia is moving beyond reconnaissance-in-force. The deployment of the 305th Artillery Brigade suggests a shift to high-intensity suppression of Ukrainian tactical reserves.
Electronic Warfare / Cyber: RU forces are actively attempting to co-opt UA terminals or personnel to regain Starlink access, which would neutralize the current Ukrainian technological edge in drone coordination.
Internal Security: The hunt for General Alekseev’s attackers (linked to the "Vasin" and "Serebritskaya" network) indicates a potential breach of the Russian MoD's inner circle or high-level HUMINT infiltration.
MLCOA: Continued saturation of the Huliaipole sector with tube and rocket artillery followed by localized "Storm" detachment assaults to seize key heights.
MDCOA: A coordinated strike (missile/UAV) on Ukrainian drone command centers in the Zaporizhzhia rear, timed with a breakthrough attempt, exploiting current Starlink C2 instability.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Posture: The 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade is actively recruiting in the Zaporizhzhia region, suggesting a need to bolster manpower in the immediate vicinity of the current Russian escalation.
Counter-Drone Operations: Ukrainian drone crews are under heavy pressure; Russian "Archangel Spetsnaz" units are claiming successful interdiction of UA pilots (Archangel Spetsnaz, 11:02).
Resource Constraints: The MoD's warning regarding Starlink suggests that "technical friction" is not just a software issue but a security vulnerability being exploited by the enemy.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Propaganda: Russian sources are amplifying "historical" narratives (Basurin, 11:20) to frame the current conflict as a continuation of WWII, likely aimed at domestic mobilization and justifying harsh treatment of POWs.
Psychological Ops: RU channels are monitoring and reporting on "nationalist meetings" (Dva Mayora, 11:31) to justify strikes on civilian or semi-military gatherings.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Zaporizhzhia: Expect an increase in "high-speed" missile strikes against Ukrainian logistics hubs in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in the next 6 hours to disrupt reinforcement flow.
Internal Security: The Alekseev investigation may lead to a localized "purge" or lockdown within the RU Group of Forces "Vostok" C2 structure, potentially creating a temporary window of operational hesitation.
Starlink: If the "White List" bypass attempts are successful, UA drone superiority in the Huliaipole sector will degrade rapidly.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of sustained artillery duels in the Huliaipole-Dobropillya sector. Potential for a missile strike on Kherson following the 11:27Z warning. UA units must implement strict signal discipline and verify all Starlink terminal integrity.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm if the 35th Army has moved additional armor into the Huliaipole sector or if they are strictly providing fire support.
[HIGH] Identify the current status of General Alekseev to determine if his neutralization has impacted GRU/Special Operations coordination.
[HIGH] Assess the extent of Starlink "bypass" success by Russian electronic intelligence (ELINT) units.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade’s deployment timeline to the FEBA (Forward Edge of the Battle Area).
