LOGISTICAL INTERDICTION (POKROVSK): Ukrainian drone units ("Black Swarm," 1st TDF Bde) successfully destroyed a mined bridge used by Russian forces to transfer heavy equipment toward Pokrovsk. (Butusov Plus, 10:38, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA OFFENSIVE PROBING: Widespread clashes reported across two major axes: Orikhiv (7 settlements) and Huliaipole (7 settlements). This indicates a significant increase in Russian reconnaissance-in-force operations. (GSZSU, 10:32, HIGH).
NORTHERN BORDER ATTRITION: Russian forces have reportedly lost the equivalent of two battalions in failed "probing" actions by small tactical groups in the Kharkiv and Sumy sectors. (RBC-Ukraine, 10:55, MEDIUM).
UNCONFIRMED STRIKE ON UA INFRASTRUCTURE: Russian sources claim the destruction of the 711th Separate Demining Brigade’s command post in Sutysky (Sumy). If verified, this targets UA capability to maintain defensive minefields. (Colonelcassad/divgen, 11:02, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
RU PERSONNEL RESTRICTIONS: Russian aviation-linked sources report a shift to "barracks status," restricting personnel movement, likely in response to recent security lapses or to prevent desertion during high-attrition phases. (Fighterbomber, 10:55, MEDIUM).
AERIAL THREAT CONTINUATION: New UAV vectors identified over Chernihiv (toward Korop and Mena) and Eastern Kharkiv (toward Krasnopavlivka). (Air Force UA, 10:47, 10:58, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains dominated by extreme sub-zero temperatures (-27°C), which continue to stress both personnel and infrastructure. The battlefield geometry is currently defined by a Russian effort to "probe" the entire front, searching for weak points created by the recent energy grid instability and Starlink outages noted in previous reports.
Battlefield Geometry: Russian forces are maintaining pressure on the Hlushkivka salient while simultaneously activating the Zaporizhzhia front. The destruction of the bridge near Pokrovsk temporarily disrupts the primary RU ground line of communication (GLOC) for their armored units in that sector.
Environmental Factors: Domestic fires (e.g., Lviv region) and infrastructure failures are increasing as the civilian and military populations struggle with heating. The "dark start" recovery of the energy grid remains the most critical strategic vulnerability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactics & Adaptations: Russia is utilizing "small group" probing tactics (Section 10:55, RBC-Ukraine) to minimize losses from UA FPV drones while forcing the UAF to expend ammunition. However, reports of battalion-level losses suggest these probes are frequently being detected and neutralized by UA integrated fires.
Command and Control (C2): The transition to "barracks status" for some RU units suggests internal friction or a "lockdown" to manage morale and operational security.
Courses of Action:
MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation of Northern and Eastern regions to identify AD gaps, followed by localized ground assaults in Zaporizhzhia.
MDCOA: A coordinated strike against UA demining units (like the 711th Brigade) to create "clean" lanes for a heavy armored breakthrough in the Sumy or Kharkiv sectors.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Posture: UAF is maintaining a resilient defense in the North, repelling 11 assaults in the Kursk/Sumy direction and 2 in Kherson.
Logistics & Support: A significant delivery of material support was confirmed for the Zaporizhzhia front (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 10:44), which is critical given the increased Russian activity in the Orikhiv and Huliaipole directions.
Tactical Successes: The use of specialized drone units ("Black Swarm") for high-precision demolition of infrastructure (bridges) demonstrates a high level of tactical maturity and efficient use of non-standard munitions.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Disinformation: Russian channels are amplifying narratives designed to fracture Western support, specifically claiming Czech PM Babiš blamed the West for "thwarting" 2022 peace deals and framing EU military integration as a threat to neutrality (TASS, 10:55).
Psychological Operations: RU sources are highlighting "barracks status" and internal Russian TV brawls (Alex Parker, 10:41) to project an image of internal volatility, which may be a double-edged distraction or a symptom of genuine domestic strain.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Zaporizhzhia Escalation: The breadth of clashes (14+ settlements) suggests that the "probing" phase in Zaporizhzhia is nearing completion. Expect an attempt at a tactical breakthrough near Stepnohirsk or Huliaipole within the next 24-48 hours.
Northern Vector: UAV activity over Chernihiv indicates a potential expansion of the "small group" tactics to the western Sumy/Chernihiv border to further stretch UA reserves.
Logistical Bottlenecks: The bridge destruction in Pokrovsk will likely force Russian units to use secondary, potentially more exposed, dirt roads, which will be vulnerable to UAF FPV strikes as the ground remains frozen and hard.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of continued "Gerbera" and Shahed-class UAV incursions over Chernihiv and Kharkiv. Expect Russian artillery to intensify near Sutysky (Sumy) to follow up on the claimed strike against demining assets. Weather-related infrastructure failures will continue to impact rear-area logistics.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the 711th Separate Demining Brigade CP. Verify if the unit remains operationally capable.
[HIGH] Identify specific Russian units involved in the Zaporizhzhia "probing" to determine if these are regular motorized rifle units or specialized "Storm" detachments.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian GLOCs near Pokrovsk to identify the new "bypass" routes established after the bridge destruction.
[MEDIUM] Confirm the current status of Starlink connectivity in the Orikhiv sector following the reported "White List" update friction.
