TERRITORIAL LOSSES (KHARKIV/SUMY): Russian sources report the capture of Hlushkivka (Kharkiv) and Sydorivka (Sumy). UAF General Staff corroborates "clashes near Hlushkivka," suggesting a transition to Russian tactical control. (Kotsnews, 10:22; GSZSU, 10:31, MEDIUM-HIGH).
NEW WEAPON DEPLOYMENT: The Russian heavy MLRS "Sarma" has been deployed to the front for "combat testing." This system likely provides enhanced mobility and precision over older BM-30 Smerch variants. (Poddubny/Rostec, 10:19, MEDIUM).
ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNIPRO AIR OFFENSIVE: A massive wave of Russian aviation strikes has targeted over 14 settlements across Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk (Orly, Pokrovske), indicating a localized air superiority effort. (GSZSU, 10:31, HIGH).
AERIAL INTERCEPTION SUCCESS: UAF units successfully downed 9 "Gerbera" loitering munitions using STING interceptors, demonstrating effective low-cost countermeasures against Russian decoy/strike UAVs. (Оперативний ЗСУ, 10:03, HIGH).
INFRASTRUCTURE CASCADING FAILURE: Beyond grid de-loading, secondary infrastructure is failing; a ski lift fire in Bukovel has been attributed to power surges/outages. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 10:27, MEDIUM).
NORTHERN UAV THREAT: Chaotic UAV movement reported over Shostka (Sumy) and a new vector established from NE Sumy toward Chernihiv. (Air Force UA, 10:05, 10:21, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a "deep freeze" (-27°C) that is now causing physical degradation of damaged energy infrastructure. Visual evidence confirms frozen and burst equipment at major substations, complicating repair efforts during the "dark start" recovery phase.
Battlefield Geometry: The fall of Hlushkivka creates a Russian salient on the east bank of the Oskil River, directly threatening the Kovsharovka-Kupyansk logistics node.
Operational Tempo: While ground maneuver is slowed by weather, aviation and long-range fires (MLRS/KABs) have intensified, particularly in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: Russia is integrating new technology (Sarma MLRS) to compensate for UAF drone superiority. The focus on Dobropillya (Donetsk) suggests an intent to bypass established defensive lines to the west of the current Pokrovsk salient.
Tactical Changes: Use of "Gerbera" drones in larger numbers serves to saturate AD, though STING interceptors are proving effective. The strike on a residential building in Kovsharovka indicates continued use of high-yield KABs for "scorched earth" clearing of urban outskirts.
Logistics: The successful maiden voyage of the LNG carrier Alexei Kosygin via the Northern Sea Route signals Russia's long-term intent to bypass Western maritime sanctions for energy exports, though this has no immediate tactical impact.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Posture: UAF remains in a "flexible defense" (IPB Step 3), trading space for attrition in the Kupyansk and Lyman sectors.
Readiness: High-intensity clashes are confirmed across six major directions (South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk, Lyman, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka). The spread of these clashes indicates a broad-front defensive engagement.
Successes: Effective use of STING interceptors is a critical "win" for preserving more expensive AD missiles for cruise missile threats.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Narratives: Russia is using TASS to frame Ukraine's potential 2027 EU membership as a "death sentence" for Europe, aiming to erode Western political will.
Disinformation/PsyOps: Graphic footage from Kherson (purporting to show UAF using "human shields") is being circulated to justify heavy artillery usage against civilian-occupied areas during the winter.
International: Iran’s reaffirmation of its nuclear program despite US threats suggests a hardening of the "Axis of Resistance," likely emboldening Russian strategic patience.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will attempt to consolidate Hlushkivka and Sydorivka to establish a winter-stable frontline along the Oskil and northern borders. Aviation strikes in Zaporizhzhia will continue to "soften" the sector for a potential late-winter push toward the regional capital.
Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA): A rapid breakthrough toward Dobropillya, combined with a total grid collapse in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia hub, could force a UAF withdrawal from the Donetsk southern flank to avoid encirclement.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect heightened UAV activity over Chernihiv and continued KAB strikes on the Kupyansk district (specifically Kovsharovka). The power deficit will likely lead to more "industrial accidents" (like Bukovel) as heating loads peak during the overnight -30°C forecast.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm if "Sarma" MLRS deployment is localized to the Kharkiv sector or distributed.
[HIGH] Verify the extent of Russian control in Sydorivka (Sumy) to determine if this is a raid or a permanent occupation.
[MEDIUM] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the 14+ aviation strikes in Zaporizhzhia to determine if critical defensive nodes were neutralized.
[MEDIUM] Technical specs and launch frequency of the "Gerbera" decoy drones to refine AD depletion rates.
