MASS AERIAL STRIKE DATA: President Zelenskyy confirmed the scale of the overnight Russian attack: >400 UAVs and ~40 missiles of various types. UA response includes new sanctions targeting foreign component suppliers (Zelenskiy, 0800Z, HIGH).
OFFENSIVE MANEUVER (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Russian forces have initiated active offensive operations on the eastern flank of the Zaporizhzhia sector, specifically west and southwest of Huliaipole. Mapping indicates significant tactical pressure (Военкор Котенок, 0748Z, MEDIUM).
C2 INVESTIGATION (ALEKSEYEV): Russian authorities have formally charged L. Korba and accomplice Vasin for the attempt on General Alekseyev. Korba, an ethnic Ukrainian, was reportedly extradited from Dubai. Russia is explicitly linking the plot to Ukrainian Special Services (TASS, 0746Z-0801Z, HIGH).
NEW AIR THREAT (CHERNIHIV): A new UAV vector has been detected near Snovsk, moving south/southwest toward the Ukrainian interior (UAF Air Force, 0757Z, HIGH).
TACTICAL LOSS (123rd BRIGADE): Drone footage confirms the destruction of a UAF armored vehicle after encountering a mine-explosive barrier. Sector unspecified but likely southern/eastern front (Colonelcassad, 0740Z, HIGH).
KAB STRIKES (DONETSK): Russian tactical aviation has launched a wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting UAF positions across the Donetsk region (UAF Air Force, 0738Z, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by extreme cold (-27°C), which is now being leveraged by Russian forces to maximize the impact of the mass drone/missile strike (400+ units) against the energy grid. Battlefield geometry is expanding in the Zaporizhzhia Sector, where Russian forces are shifting from static artillery duels to localized maneuvering west of Huliaipole. In the Northern Sector, a new UAV penetration in Chernihiv suggests Russia is attempting to keep air defenses dispersed and prevent the consolidation of AD assets around the battered energy hubs in the West.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The massive volume of the Saturday morning strike (440+ total projectiles) indicates Russia has successfully bypassed some supply constraints, likely through the "foreign components" Zelenskyy referenced. Their intent is clearly the systematic collapse of the UA grid during a peak thermal-load event.
Tactical Changes: In the Donetsk/Toretsk area, Russia is utilizing high-precision FPV strikes to systematically dismantle UAF technical assets, specifically targeting drone antennas and shelters (DPR Militia, 0759Z). This "technical attrition" aims to blind local UAF units before larger ground assaults.
Course of Action: The Kremlin is moving rapidly to weaponize the Alekseyev assassination attempt. By identifying the suspect as a Ukrainian-born "refugee," they are creating a domestic narrative to justify "retaliatory" strikes against civilian-adjacent C2 nodes in Kyiv.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Posture & Readiness: UAF units in the Zaporizhzhia sector are facing increased pressure from VDV and "Vostok" groupings. The loss of a 123rd Brigade vehicle to a minefield (0740Z) highlights the danger of maneuvering in the current high-density obstacle environment.
Strategic Response: The President's office is pivoting to "sanctions warfare," targeting the supply chain of Russian missile production. This is a long-term strategic adjustment to the failure of the "Dark Start" mitigation if the grid cannot be stabilized.
Moral & Psychological: The "Khartia" Corps is actively pushing counter-narratives featuring resilient commanders ("Hrom") to maintain morale during the grid crisis (Butusov, 0743Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Russian Disinformation: Russian channels are amplifying a statement by Czech PM Babis claiming the UK (Boris Johnson) blocked a 2022 peace deal (0742Z). This is timed to exploit current Western fatigue and the "Dark Start" crisis to suggest the war's continuation is a Western imposition.
Domestic Repression (RU): The arrest of MMA fighter Denny Soloshchenko in Barnaul for "financing the UAF" (ASTRA, 0800Z) serves as a deterrent to the Russian domestic population and reinforces the "enemy within" narrative.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB and UAV strikes on the Chernihiv-Kyiv axis to maintain air alert status, while ground forces in Zaporizhzhia attempt to "pinch" the Huliaipole salient to disrupt UAF lateral communications.
Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA): A secondary wave of Kalibr/Iskander missiles targeting the specific substations required for a "Dark Start" recovery, timed for when UAF repair crews are most exposed (mid-day).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of continued KAB strikes in the Donetsk sector. The Chernihiv UAV vector (0757Z) will likely trigger air raid sirens in Kyiv/North within the next 2 hours. Expect increased Russian MoD PR regarding the "Alekseyev confession" to precede an escalatory strike announcement.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the specific penetration depth of Russian forces southwest of Huliaipole—is this a reconnaissance-in-force or a sustained breakthrough?
[HIGH] Assess the impact of the 400+ drone strike on the 750kV transmission lines—identify which specific oblasts are currently in a "total blackout" vs. "scheduled outages."
[MEDIUM] Monitor for any SIGINT indicating Russian tactical aviation repositioning for a second KAB wave in the Sumy/Chernihiv sectors.
