AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT (LVIV): Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) successfully intercepted Russian UAVs over Lviv (08:48 local) and Khodoriv (08:40 local). Local officials confirm the primary targets were critical infrastructure (Operatyvny ZSU, 0713Z; RBK-UA, 0729Z, HIGH).
RESIDENTIAL STRIKE (KRAMATORSK): Russian forces conducted a kinetic strike on a residential "sleeping" district in Kramatorsk, resulting in confirmed casualties and significant structural damage (RBK-UA, 0711Z, HIGH).
CIVILIAN EVACUATION UNDER FIRE (BERYSLAV): Russian forces targeted a civilian evacuation effort in Beryslav (Kherson region). Video evidence confirms immediate danger to non-combatants (Shef Hayabusa, 0716Z, HIGH).
C2 COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE (RU): Russian FSB released footage and details regarding the extradition of L. Korba (65) from the UAE, accused of the assassination attempt on General Alekseyev. Two alleged accomplices were named; one detained in Moscow, one reportedly fled to Ukraine (TASS, 0730Z; Alex Parker, 0730Z, MEDIUM).
ABKHAZIA DIPLOMATIC FRICTION: Russian passport processing centers in Abkhazia have suspended operations following local legislative challenges to their legality, indicating a rare point of friction in Russian-occupied territory (Basurin, 0723Z, MEDIUM).
UAV THREAT (KHARKIV): A new UAV vector has been identified approaching Zolochiv from the north (UAF Air Force, 0714Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high despite extreme cold. Russia is maintaining a dual-track offensive: a strategic aerial campaign targeting Western Ukrainian infrastructure and tactical kinetic strikes against civilian and military targets in the East and South. Battlefield geometry in the Lviv sector is currently defined by AD engagement zones as Russia attempts to finalize its infrastructure "Dark Start" objective.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The focus on Lviv and Khodoriv (0729Z) confirms a persistent intent to disable the Western energy hub. The shift to targeting civilian evacuation in Beryslav (0716Z) suggests a "terror-to-demoralize" tactic or a deliberate effort to clear the battlespace of observers.
Tactical Changes: In the Zaporizhzhia sector, the "Vostok" grouping is utilizing high-volume artillery to "level" UAF strongpoints (0732Z), indicating a return to conventional attrition tactics where drone density might be lower or EW more effective.
C2/Internal: The high-profile PR surrounding the Alekseyev case (TASS, 0730Z) is likely intended to demonstrate Russian security reach (extradition from UAE) and provide a pretext for retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian Intelligence (GUR) HQ, which they blame for the plot.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Posture: UAF AD remains highly responsive in the Western interior, successfully neutralizing threats over Lviv and Khodoriv. However, the requirement for AD assets in the West may be thinning coverage in the Donbas.
Tactical Successes: Successful AD interceptions in the Lviv region have prevented immediate further degradation of the 750kV backbone in that sector.
Constraints: High-intensity artillery fire in Zaporizhzhia and the strike on Kramatorsk (0711Z) place extreme pressure on localized medical and emergency response units, exacerbated by -27°C temperatures.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Russian Narrative: Russian channels are heavily promoting the "Alekseyev Plot" as a GUR-led "terrorist" action to justify ongoing strikes. Simultaneously, they are pushing narratives of US internal decline (Rybar, 0709Z) to weaken Ukrainian perceptions of Western long-term support.
Abkhazian Friction: The suspension of passport offices (0723Z) represents a potential "soft spot" in Russian administrative control that could be exploited by UA psychological operations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV probing of the Kharkiv-Zolochiv axis (0714Z) to identify AD gaps, followed by a localized missile or glide-bomb strike on Kramatorsk/Sloviansk to exploit the chaos of the residential strike.
Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA): Utilizing the "Alekseyev investigation" as a legal/diplomatic "justification" for a massive escalatory strike against Ukrainian decision-making centers (Kyiv) within the next 24 hours.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued aerial activity over Lviv and Kharkiv. The energy situation in the West remains "critically stable" but dependent on AD hit rates. Kinetic intensity in the Zaporizhzhia and Kramatorsk sectors will likely increase as Russian artillery attempts to capitalize on recent strikes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the current operational status of the Khodoriv energy node following the 08:40 explosions—determine if any "suppressed" drones achieved kinetic impact.
[HIGH] Identify the specific platform used in the Kramatorsk strike (Iskander vs. S-300 in surface mode) to assess Russian remaining missile inventory for the Donbas front.
[MEDIUM] Monitor UAE diplomatic channels for any response to the Alekseyev suspect extradition to assess the stability of Russian-Emirati security cooperation.
