MASSIVE UAV ATTACK RECAP: Official figures confirm 101 Russian drones were launched overnight. Ukrainian Air Defense (UAF) and EW units intercepted/suppressed 69 targets (UAF Air Force, 0640Z, HIGH).
WESTERN UKRAINE UNDER THREAT: Russian "Shahed" UAVs, including specialized reconnaissance platforms, are currently transiting Rivne, Volyn, and Lviv oblasts, specifically targeting Lviv city and Khodoriv (UAF Air Force, 0644Z; Tsaplienko, 0651Z, HIGH).
KYIV ENERGY EMERGENCY: DTEK has announced a return to temporary scheduled power outages in Kyiv following the overnight strikes, indicating renewed grid instability (RBK-UA, 0647Z, HIGH).
CASUALTIES IN KHERSON: Mass shelling of Kherson has resulted in at least 6 civilian injuries; emergency services are on-site (ASTRA, 0640Z, HIGH).
GRU C2 DISRUPTION: Russian FSB claims to have arrested the perpetrator and accomplice in the assassination attempt on General Alekseyev; the suspect was reportedly extradited from Dubai (TASS, 0646Z, MEDIUM).
MLRS DESTRUCTION (ZAPORIZHZHIA): UAF "Lasar’s Group" (National Guard) successfully destroyed a Russian BM-21 "Grad" in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Butusov Plus, 0658Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains defined by extreme cold (-27°C) and a sustained Russian aerial offensive. The focus of the air campaign has shifted toward Western Ukraine (Lviv/Rivne) and the South (Kherson/Odesa), likely aiming to sever logistics and energy links to Europe. On the ground, Russian tactical aviation is increasingly active in the Eastern sectors (0649Z), supporting the high-intensity ground assaults (294 clashes) reported earlier.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Aerial Course of Action: The deployment of 101 drones indicates a deliberate attempt to overwhelm AD capacity. The use of "reconnaissance-equipped" drones over Rivne and Volyn (0651Z) suggests Russia is mapping new AD positions or identifying energy infrastructure nodes for follow-on missile strikes.
Tactical Aviation: Increased activity in the East (0649Z) suggests a coordination between ground "meat assaults" and close air support, likely using FAB/UMPC glide bombs.
C2 and Internal Security: The arrest of a suspect in the Alekseyev case highlights ongoing vulnerabilities within high-level Russian military intelligence (GRU) leadership and a reliance on international extradition (Dubai) to resolve internal security failures.
Logistics: The "Dva Mayora" fundraising for the Konstantinovka direction (0659Z) indicates continued Russian reliance on volunteer/crowdsourced logistics to sustain offensive momentum in the Donbas.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Strategic Resilience: Ukrainian civilians and businesses have reportedly procured portable power solutions (Ecoflow-type) with a cumulative capacity comparable to a nuclear reactor (Yuzhnoukrainsk NPP equivalent), indicating a massive, decentralized effort to mitigate the "Dark Start" scenario (Operatyvny ZSU, 0638Z).
Tactical Successes: The 80th Separate Air Assault Galician Brigade reported a high rate of Russian vehicle destruction in January, demonstrating sustained lethality of UAF UAV operators despite technical friction (DShV ZSU, 0656Z).
Defensive Posture: AD systems in the West are currently engaged with a persistent multi-drone wave. The 68% interception rate (69/101) reflects the high volume of the saturation attack.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
National Unity: Synchronized "Minute of Silence" reports across all major Ukrainian channels (0700Z) reinforce domestic morale and national cohesion during the energy crisis.
Russian Internal Issues: Russian social media (Moskva News, 0647Z) is showing signs of domestic friction regarding proposed retirement/pension reforms, which UA PSYOP units could exploit to distract from the frontline "surge" narrative.
Russian Propaganda: Belief scores (0.32) suggest continued high-intensity Russian propaganda efforts focused on inflating the success of the "Zapad" group and the "total collapse" of UA lines near the Dnipro junction.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian UAVs will continue to loiter over Western Ukraine to identify "Dark Start" restoration points. Expect a second wave of strikes (possibly cruise missiles) within 12-24 hours to capitalize on reconnaissance data gathered by the drones currently over Lviv/Rivne.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): Russian tactical aviation in the East successfully suppresses UAF AD near Pokrovsk, allowing for unrestricted glide bomb usage that breaks the current defensive line during the Starlink/C2 friction period.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of kinetic impacts in the Lviv and Rivne oblasts as current UAVs reach their terminal targets. Kyiv's energy situation will remain precarious; expect intermittent blackouts to expand if the 750kV backbone sustains further damage. High-intensity ground combat in the Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka directions will persist.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Assess BDA of the 32 "suppressed/unaccounted" drones from the 101-unit wave—identify if they hit energy targets or were lost to EW.
[HIGH] Monitor for Russian Su-34/Su-35 sorties in the East to confirm if tactical aviation activity (0649Z) is a precursor to a mechanized breakthrough attempt.
[MEDIUM] Verify the status of Starlink connectivity in the Western sectors (Lviv/Volyn) following the UAV strikes to see if technical friction is spreading geographically.
