DEEP STRIKE PROGRESSION: Russian UAVs have transited Rivne Oblast, passing Sarny (0346Z) and Rafalivka (0358Z), maintaining a westward heading toward Volyn Oblast (AFU Air Force, HIGH).
TACTICAL ISR INTEGRATION: Russian forces (51st Guards Combined Arms Army, Grouping "Center") are actively utilizing Skat-350M reconnaissance UAVs to identify and suppress UAF defensive positions (specifically machine gun nests) on the Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) axis (Colonelcassad, 0335Z, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA LULL: Air raid alerts have been lifted in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as of 0354Z, indicating a temporary cessation of the KAB/UAV pressure in the southern sector (Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
DOMESTIC LEGAL OPS: Russian state media reports new legal penalties against opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky, indicating continued internal focus on neutralizing perceived "foreign agent" influence (TASS, 0339Z, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Western Sector (Rivne/Volyn): The flight path of the UAVs—specifically passing through Rafalivka—is of high concern. Rafalivka is in close proximity to the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The westward vector toward Volyn suggests a coordinated effort to pressure the border regions near Poland and further destabilize the Western Ukrainian power corridor.
Donetsk Sector (Krasnoarmiysk/Pokrovsk): Russian "Center" forces are maintaining high-tempo tactical ISR. The deployment of Skat-350M UAVs for real-time fire correction against UAF strongpoints indicates that the enemy is capitalizing on degraded UAF C2 (due to the previously reported Starlink disruptions) to facilitate infantry-led "storm" assaults.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): The "All Clear" signal suggests Russian aviation may be rotating or re-arming. However, the threat remains HIGH given the previous patterns of KAB strikes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The specific mention of the Skat-350M (an upgraded variant of the Supercam) indicates a reliance on high-endurance, jam-resistant ISR platforms to overcome Ukrainian EW. This integration allows Russian assault units to bypass UAF tactical suppressive fire more efficiently.
Strategic Vectoring: By pushing UAVs deep into Volyn, the enemy is likely conducting reconnaissance of logistics hubs or energy distribution nodes that connect the Ukrainian grid to the European ENTSO-E system. This supports the "Dark Start" scenario identified in the previous 24h context.
Logistics/Sustainment: The absence of reported missile launches in the last 30 minutes, following the depletion of activity at the 260th GRAU Arsenal, suggests the current phase is UAV-dominant while missile platforms reload.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD): Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are actively tracking the western-bound UAVs. The shift from Sarny to Rafalivka suggests the UAF AD envelope is being challenged by low-altitude, variable-path drone trajectories.
Defensive Posture: In the Pokrovsk direction, units are under heavy pressure. The loss of machine gun points (referenced by RU sources) suggests a need for rapid reinforcement of tactical positions and the deployment of short-range/man-portable EW to counter the Skat-350M threat.
Environment: Operational conditions remain extreme (-27°C), significantly slowing the movement of mechanized assets and increasing the thermal signature of friendly positions, making them easier targets for RU thermal-equipped ISR.
Information environment / disinformation
RU Domestic Control: TASS reporting on Khodorkovsky serves to reinforce the "internal enemy" narrative, distracting from frontline attrition and emphasizing the state's grip on the legal system.
Operational Claims: Russian military bloggers (Colonelcassad) are highlighting tactical successes with UAV footage to project a technological edge, specifically countering the narrative of Ukrainian drone superiority.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): UAV strikes or electronic reconnaissance against energy infrastructure in Volyn and Western Rivne Oblasts before 0600Z. Continued localized Russian assaults on the Pokrovsk axis to exploit the Starlink "White List" friction.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A precision strike on the switching infrastructure near the Rivne NPP, which could trigger an automated safety shutdown and accelerate the national grid's "Dark Start" collapse.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the UAVs passing Rafalivka have engaged targets or are purely conducting ISR for a secondary missile wave.
[HIGH] Assess the current operational status of Starlink terminals in the Pokrovsk sector; verify if the "White List" friction has been resolved for the 51st Guards Army's AO.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for any SIGINT indicating Russian 5th or 36th CAA movements toward the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia junction following the air raid stand-down.
