KAB STRIKES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA: Confirmed launch of KAB (Guided Aerial Bombs) targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast, transitioning the earlier 0226Z alert from general threat to active kinetic engagement (0235Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
NORTH-EASTERN AVIATION ACTIVITY: Significant uptick in Russian tactical aviation activity along the north-eastern border (0247Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
MULTI-SECTOR KAB SALVOS: Synchronized KAB releases confirmed targeting Kharkiv Oblast (from the North) and Eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (0256Z-0257Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
STRATEGIC DETERRENCE RHETORIC: Russian Ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, cited "West-2025" exercises as proof of a joint defense potential capable of "reflecting any threats" (0233Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Western Sector (Kyiv/Zhytomyr): UAVs previously reported transiting Ivankiv and Krasyatychi continue their westward vector toward Zhytomyr. No new kinetic impacts reported in the last 30 minutes, suggesting these assets are still in transit or maintaining altitude to bypass AD screens.
North-Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy): Tactical aviation (likely Su-34/35) is active. The launch of KABs from the north indicates a continuation of the "scorched earth" tactic against Kharkiv's periphery and logistics hubs.
Central Sector (Dnipropetrovsk): The threat has expanded to the eastern portion of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast via KABs. This suggests a broadening of the strike zone to include secondary logistics lines supporting the Donetsk front.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Active engagement is underway. The transition from air raid alerts to confirmed KAB launches indicates the enemy is targeting tactical rear positions or infrastructure within glide range of the frontline.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The enemy is utilizing a "High-Low" strike profile. High: UAVs transiting at depth to fix strategic AD and strike energy nodes. Low: Tactical aviation utilizing KABs to suppress frontline C2 and logistics. The speed of the KAB cycle (Zaporizhzhia -> Kharkiv -> Dnipropetrovsk within 22 minutes) suggests a highly coordinated sortie schedule.
Logistics/Sustainment: While daily reports indicated the 260th GRAU Arsenal went quiet, the current KAB intensity suggests that munitions were successfully moved to forward airbases (likely in Belgorod and occupied Crimea/Donetsk) prior to this wave.
Force Posture: Russian political messaging regarding the "West-2025" exercises (Gryzlov) serves as a strategic "keep-out" signal to NATO, aiming to frame current operations as part of a broader, untouchable defense architecture.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD) Management: AFU Air Force is prioritizing early warning for KAB releases. However, the short flight time of glide bombs compared to UAVs reduces the engagement window for Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs).
C2 Challenges: Ongoing friction from the Starlink "White List" update (referenced in previous daily report) remains a critical vulnerability. If units in eastern Dnipropetrovsk or Zaporizhzhia are experiencing outages, the ability to coordinate localized AD against KABs is significantly degraded.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Reinforcement: Russian state media (TASS) is pivoting toward themes of "internal stability" (Census 2028, cultural news) and "geopolitical inevitability" (claims from Europarliament members about the impossibility of regime change). This is likely intended to project a sense of normalcy and long-term endurance despite the -27°C conditions and ongoing high-intensity combat.
European Polarization: The amplification of Fernand Kartheiser’s (MEP, Luxembourg) comments regarding the futility of EU policy toward Moscow is a clear effort to exploit cracks in European political unity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued KAB harassment across the eastern and southern fronts to prevent AFU from stabilizing the grid or reinforcing tactical positions. The UAVs currently over Zhytomyr will likely impact energy targets or substations shortly before dawn to maximize the effect of the extreme cold.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): The tactical aviation activity in the North-East is a precursor to a cross-border raid or a larger missile salvo timed to coincide with the KAB-induced chaos in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Starlink Status: Immediate confirmation required on whether units under KAB threat in eastern Dnipropetrovsk are experiencing C2 outages.
[HIGH] Aviation Basing: Identify if the "West-2025" rhetoric coincides with new tactical aviation deployments to Belarusian airbases (e.g., Zyabrovka or Baranovichi) that could threaten the Northern border.
[MEDIUM] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment): Determine the specific targets of the 0256Z-0257Z KAB strikes to identify if the enemy is shifting focus from energy to military-industrial sites.
