UAV WESTWARD TRANSIT (KYIV/ZHYTOMYR): Multiple Russian UAVs have bypassed the Kyiv metropolitan area to the north, transiting Ivankiv (0217Z) and Krasyatychi (0229Z) on a westward heading toward Zhytomyr Oblast (AFU Air Force, HIGH).
NORTHERN CORRIDOR EXPANSION (CHERNIHIV): Active UAV tracks identified near Snovsk and Oster, maintaining a consistent westward vector (0210Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
SOUTHERN THREAT (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Air raid alerts initiated in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating a potential expansion of the strike window or new launch vectors from the south/east (0226Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
PROMOTIONAL DEPLOYMENT (MOLNIYA-2): Russian MoD claims the successful use of "Molniya-2" strike UAVs against a Ukrainian command post (0221Z, TASS, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Kyiv/Zhytomyr): The enemy has established a high-altitude or persistent UAV corridor. Rather than a direct descent on Kyiv/Vyshhorod, assets are currently skirting the capital's northern defenses (Ivankiv) to penetrate deeper into the western oblasts. This suggests a secondary objective, likely targeting energy distribution nodes in Zhytomyr or logistics hubs supporting the northern border.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Recent alerts suggest a multi-axis engagement. While specific assets (UAV vs. Missile) are not yet confirmed for this sector, the timing aligns with the northern activity, indicating a coordinated attempt to saturate AFU Air Defense (AD).
Eastern Sector (Kharkiv): Following the earlier KAB launches (0158Z), the sector remains under high threat, though no new impacts have been reported in the last 30 minutes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The shift toward the "Molniya-2" UAV in Russian messaging suggests a push to highlight loitering munition capabilities. If confirmed, this indicates a diversification of the strike portfolio beyond the standard Geran-2 (Shahed) platforms, potentially using smaller, more maneuverable assets for C2 (Command and Control) targeting.
Aviation/Missile Status: The broad geographic spread of alerts (from Chernihiv to Zaporizhzhia) is a precursor to a "synchronized strike" profile.
Weather Impact: Sustained -27°C temperatures continue to serve as a force multiplier for Russian infrastructure strikes. Any delay in AFU response due to the previously reported Starlink "White List" friction could be catastrophic for regional grid stability.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD) Response: AFU Air Force is maintaining high-fidelity tracking of UAV "waypoints" (Snovsk -> Oster -> Ivankiv -> Krasyatychi). Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are likely repositioning along the P02 and P69 highway axes to intercept the westward-moving assets.
Early Warning: Regional administrations (OVA) are demonstrating high responsiveness in Zaporizhzhia, providing maximum lead time for civilian and military personnel to seek cover.
Information environment / disinformation
Technological Posturing: The rapid dissemination of "Molniya-2" strike footage via TASS is likely intended to project an image of precision and technological parity, countering reports of Russian logistics reliance on "Kurier" ground robots and internal health crises (Flu).
Source Credibility: The RuMoD claim of a "destroyed command post" remains unconfirmed by visual intelligence (GEOINT) or friendly reporting and should be treated as propaganda until verified.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): UAVs currently transiting Kyiv Oblast will enter Zhytomyr airspace within 60 minutes, targeting primary electrical substations. Simultaneously, a secondary strike (potentially cruise missiles or KABs) will impact Zaporizhzhia to fix AFU AD assets in the south.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): The westward UAV movement is a "shaping operation" to draw MFGs away from Kyiv, followed by a high-speed ballistic/hypersonic strike on the Vyshhorod/Kyiv Hydroelectric node once defenses are thinned.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Asset Identification: Confirm if "Molniya-2" UAVs are operating in the Northern sector or if they are restricted to the tactical frontline (Krasnoarmiyske/Donetsk).
[HIGH] Zaporizhzhia Threat Profile: Identify the specific threat (Ballistic vs. UAV) triggering the 0226Z alert to determine AD prioritization.
[MEDIUM] Starlink Resolution: Determine if units in the Ivankiv/Krasyatychi corridor are currently experiencing the "White List" C2 outages reported in the daily intel.
