CRITICAL GRID COLLAPSE: All Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) in Ukrainian-controlled territory have reportedly ceased power generation following systemic grid instability (1200Z, Colonelcassad; 1207Z, НгП раZVедка; MEDIUM/HIGH).
WESTERN UKRAINE KINETIC IMPACT: Confirmed fatality in Rivne Oblast and total blackout in Ivano-Frankivsk region following sustained strikes on electrical substations (1145Z, Colonelcassad; 1150Z, ASTRA; HIGH).
LOCALIZED DEFENSIVE SUCCESS: UAF 225th Separate Assault Regiment ("Black Swan") successfully neutralized a Russian assault group in the Huliaipole sector, Zaporizhzhia (1143Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС; HIGH).
DEEP STRIKE RESULTS: UAF General Staff confirmed successful overnight strikes (Feb 6-7) against a Russian oil depot, UAV control nodes, a repair facility, and MLRS units (1211Z, General Staff ZSU; HIGH).
STRATEGIC SHIFT: Analysis identifies Slovyansk and Kramatorsk as the likely centers of gravity for the "General Battle for Donetsk," indicating a Russian pivot toward these bastions (1156Z, DeepState; MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has entered a "Total Energy War" phase. While the frontline remains largely static in the East, the operational depth of Ukraine is under severe pressure. The Huliaipole sector (Zaporizhzhia) has seen a spike in Russian assault activity, likely aimed at testing UAF lines during the current cold snap (-27°C).
Weather/Environment: Extreme sub-zero temperatures persist. The reported shutdown of NPP generation is a catastrophic development for civilian and industrial sustainment, likely intended by the RU MoD to freeze military logistics and civilian morale.
Logistics: Movement restrictions previously noted have been lifted (1154Z, Білошицький), though the reliability of rail transport remains questionable given the grid collapse.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: Russia is executing a coordinated campaign to decouple the Ukrainian power grid from its primary generation sources (NPPs). By targeting the 750kV/330kV substations, they have forced a "black start" or "emergency shutdown" state across the national network.
Tactical Adaptation: Russian "Vostok" and "14th Spetsnaz" units are utilizing the focus on the air war to conduct localized armor-heavy assaults in the Zaporizhzhia sector (1200Z, Воин DV).
Logistics & Sustainment: Despite the UAF strike on an oil depot, Russian artillery (Giatsint-S) remains active in the Vostok sector, suggesting adequate forward-deployed ammunition stocks (1210Z, MoD Russia).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture: UAF Air Defense (Command "West") remains active, with visual confirmation of engagements over the Western sector (1143Z, PS ZSU). However, the volume of incoming munitions is challenging interception rates.
Deep Operations: UAF is successfully prioritizing high-value asymmetric targets (UAV command nodes and repair units) to degrade Russian tactical flexibility and drone-directed fire (1211Z, General Staff ZSU).
Readiness: The 225th Separate Assault Regiment demonstrates high combat readiness in the South, successfully interdicting Russian tactical maneuvers near Huliaipole.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Cognitive Operations: Pro-Russian channels (Басурин о главном) are amplifying Western political rhetoric to suggest a weakening of international support (1159Z).
Internal Russian Context: Russian state media is continuing to frame the Lyubertsy explosion as a "firecracker" incident (1208Z, ТАСС), likely to suppress any narrative of domestic sabotage or instability.
Public Sentiment: The introduction of narratives regarding the "General Battle for Donetsk" (DeepState) is likely intended to prepare the Ukrainian public for a period of high-intensity, decisive combat in the coming months.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will maintain pressure on the Western Ukrainian grid to prevent the restoration of NPP connectivity. This will be paired with increased ground reconnaissance-in-force in the Huliaipole and Donetsk sectors to identify UAF units weakened by logistical disruptions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Exploiting the national blackout, Russian forces launch a multi-axis offensive toward Slovyansk/Kramatorsk before the grid can be stabilized, utilizing the lack of digital C2 (due to power/Starlink issues) to achieve tactical surprise.
Timeline:
Next 6-12h: Continued emergency blackouts; potential for Russian UAVs to loiter over NPP switchyards to strike repair crews.
12-24h: Expected surge in Russian shelling in the Zaporizhzhia sector as they attempt to capitalize on the tactical success of their Spetsnaz groups.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the status of all four Ukrainian NPPs. Are they in "cold shutdown" or merely disconnected from the grid?
[HIGH] Assess the impact of the Starlink "White List" on current UAF tactical communications during the power outage.
[MEDIUM] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) on the oil depot strike reported by the General Staff; determine the impact on Russian 58th CAA fuel supplies.
[LOW] Monitor for reports of localized "civil unrest" or humanitarian crises in Ivano-Frankivsk/Rivne to gauge the threshold of civilian resilience.
