WESTERN UKRAINE CASUALTY: Official confirmation of at least one fatality in the Rivne region following a Russian attack (РБК-Україна, 1138Z; HIGH).
UAV VECTOR SHIFT: Russian loitering munitions are transiting Rivne Oblast (Sarny/Rafalivka) on a westward heading toward Volyn, indicating a widening of the target set to include the Polish border corridor (Повітряні Сили, 1117Z, 1133Z; HIGH).
TACTICAL SUCCESS (DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA): UAF General Staff confirmed high-value strikes on a Russian BM-27 "Uragan" MLRS, drone command nodes, and an FPV production facility (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1113Z; HIGH).
HYBRID NARRATIVE "DMITRIEV PACKAGE": Pro-Russian and some Ukrainian sources are circulating claims of a $12 trillion US-Russia economic cooperation deal (the "Dmitriev Package") allegedly linked to a peace settlement bypassing Kyiv (Операция Z, 1114Z; Sternenko, 1138Z; LOW/UNCONFIRMED - Possible PsyOp).
ENERGY CRISIS INTENSIFICATION: Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed "harsh" power schedules (only 4-5 hours of electricity per day) will persist for several days following infrastructure damage (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1134Z; HIGH).
INTERNAL RUSSIAN INSTABILITY: A detonation in Lyubertsy (Moscow suburb) severely injured a teenager; while authorities claim a "firecracker," local reports suggest an improvised device/unknown object (Новости Москвы, 1116Z; ТАСС, 1123Z; MEDIUM).
POLITICAL REPRESSION: Altai regional deputy Andrey Chernobay (CPRF) has reportedly disappeared into FSB custody after being released from temporary detention (ASTRA, 1129Z; MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The operational focus has shifted to the Western Sector (Rivne/Volyn) and the Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia transition zone. Russia is attempting to exploit the energy degradation in the West while UAF is aggressively targeting Russian tactical enablers (MLRS/FPV sites) to stall localized offensives.
Weather/Environment: Continued sub-zero temperatures are maximizing the impact of power outages in Ivano-Frankivsk and Western Ukraine, likely aiming to trigger a humanitarian-driven pause in military logistics.
Force Dispositions: Russian "night-hunting" groups are active in the Novopavlivka sector, countered by UAF 42nd OMBr drone operations (STERNENKO, 1119Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Aviation/UAV Operations: Russia is maintaining a continuous UAV presence over Sumy (Shostka/Voronizh) and Pavlohrad, likely providing real-time ISR for follow-on missile strikes or adjusting artillery fire (Повітряні Сили, 1129Z, 1131Z).
Tactical Adaptation: The loss of an "Uragan" MLRS and an FPV production center (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1113Z) is a significant blow to Russian area-denial capabilities in the Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia sector.
Information Operations: The "Dmitriev Package" narrative is likely a coordinated effort to frame the US as prioritizing economic interests over Ukrainian sovereignty, timed to coincide with high kinetic pressure on the energy grid.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Defensive Successes: Ukrainian Border Guards successfully interdicted a Russian armored thrust in the Kostiantynivka direction, destroying one tank and damaging another (РБК-Україна, 1121Z).
Resource Management: UAF is increasingly relying on specialized units like the 42nd OMBr "Perun" for night-time interdiction of Russian infantry, compensating for ammunition conservation through high-precision FPV use.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Domestic Russian Friction: The Lyubertsy explosion and the "disappearance" of deputy Chernobay suggest heightened internal paranoia and potential "cleansing" of the political/security apparatus within Russia.
Cognitive Warfare: Russian channels are amplifying Zelenskyy's reported "alarm" regarding US-Russia deals to seed distrust between Kyiv and Washington (Alex Parker Returns, 1125Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian UAVs currently over Volyn will target transit hubs or remaining 750 kV relay stations within the next 3-6 hours. Ukrainian energy officials will be forced to extend blackouts to the entire Western corridor.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A major Russian air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) wave tomorrow morning, utilizing BDA from current UAV swarms, specifically targeting the railway junctions in Rivne/Volyn to block Western aid flow.
Timeline:
Next 6 hours: UAV impacts in Volyn/Rivne; potential retaliatory UAF drone strikes on Russian border regions.
24-48 hours: High probability of a large-scale missile salvo based on the "loading phase" drop-off noted in Site 105 satellite data (ref: Previous Daily Report).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the nature of the "Dmitriev Package"—is this a legitimate diplomatic back-channel leak or a VKS-G2 disinformation construct?
[HIGH] BDA on the FPV production facility strike; identify if this was a centralized "Rubicon" node or a smaller workshop.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the Volyn/Rivne border crossings for any disruptions to military aid convoys following the westward UAV shift.
[LOW] Identify the status of Andrey Chernobay; his detention may signal a wider crackdown on domestic political dissent in Russia related to the war's economic cost.
