ALL-CLEAR ISSUED: The nationwide air alert triggered by a Russian MiG-31K at 0923Z has ended as of 0950Z; no "Kinzhal" hypersonic missile launches were confirmed during this sortie (Air Force ZSU, 0948Z; Nikolaevskiy Vanyek, 0947Z; HIGH).
LVIV GRID CRISIS: Lviv Regional Military Administration confirms >600,000 subscribers are without electricity following the overnight Russian mass strike on energy infrastructure (ASTRA, 0956Z; HIGH).
NEW TERRITORIAL CLAIM (SUMY): Russian MoD claims the 34th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Group "Sever") has seized the settlement of Popovka in the Sumy region. This represents a potential expansion of active ground operations along the northern border (MoD Russia, 1005Z; LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
ADVANCED FPV DEPLOYMENT: Successful engagement of 16 Russian personnel in the Lyman sector using fiber-optic (jam-resistant) FPV drones; indicates Ukrainian tactical adaptation to Russian EW (Butusov Plus, 1011Z; MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING: President Zelenskyy referenced a potential $12 trillion economic cooperation proposal between the US and Russia, while simultaneously reiterating that a withdrawal from Donbas is non-negotiable (Tsaplienko, 1000Z; Alex Parker, 1006Z; MEDIUM).
NUCLEAR SECURITY: Russia has reportedly rejected a US proposal regarding the transfer of control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP) (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1006Z; MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The front remains highly active with a concentration of Russian ground assaults in the Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Kostiantynivka directions. A potential new point of friction is emerging in the Sumy region (Popovka).
Weather/Environmental: Winter conditions persist; Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade reports American-made "Paladin" M109 self-propelled howitzers are maintaining operational tempo despite snow and freezing temperatures (47th Brigade, 0946Z).
Energy Infrastructure: The strategic picture is dominated by the BDA of the overnight strike. Lviv is currently the hardest-hit region in terms of civilian grid impact (600k without power).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RuAF "Sever" Group is attempting to fix Ukrainian reserves in the north (Sumy) while maintaining high-intensity pressure in the Donbas. The MiG-31K sortie, while not kinetic, successfully forced a nationwide operational pause for over 25 minutes.
Tactical Changes: The claim of capturing Popovka suggests Russian forces are testing northern border defenses to exploit gaps in Ukrainian AD or manpower distribution.
Internal Security: Continued purges within the Russian military-administrative apparatus are noted with the arrest of MChS Deputy Director Irakli Arabidze for fraud/bribery (Colonelcassad, 1003Z).
Information Warfare: ISW reports that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov continues to demand "total surrender" (capitulation), signaling that the "peace plans" circulating in Western media currently lack a Kremlin-backed counterpart (RBC-UA, 0944Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Tactical Successes:
Lyman Sector: High-lethality FPV operations continue to degrade Russian assault groups. The use of fiber-optic drones suggests a successful technical bypass of Russian electronic warfare (EW) umbrellas.
Zaporizhzhia: 260th TRO Brigade ("Khortytsia") is actively deploying the Ukrainian-made "Domakha" long-range reconnaissance UAV to monitor Russian movements (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 1005Z).
Special Operations: GUR "Phantoms" unit reports 6 Russian AD targets neutralized during January, indicating a sustained campaign to blind Russian tactical air defense (GUR/Vanyek, 0947Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Strategic Narratives: Russian channels are amplifying reports of Ukrainian "rigidity" regarding the Donbas to frame Kyiv as the obstacle to peace (Alex Parker, 1006Z). Simultaneously, Ukrainian sources are highlighting the high cost of Russian successes (e.g., the 14th Brigade's remote mining video).
Corporate Moves: Reports of "Chanel" filing for trademarks in Russia suggest long-term Russian expectations of a return to economic "normalcy" (TASS, 1002Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue localized "gray zone" incursions in the Sumy/Kharkiv border regions to stretch UA reserves while the VKS (Air Force) conducts BDA of the energy grid to prepare the next wave of "Shahed" strikes tonight.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed breakthrough in Popovka (Sumy) being exploited by mechanized elements to threaten logistics hubs in the rear of the Kharkiv grouping, coinciding with a total grid collapse in Western Ukraine if follow-on missile strikes occur.
Timeline: Next 6-12 hours will focus on Ukrainian engineering efforts to restore power in Lviv and stabilizing the northern border near Popovka.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the operational status and presence of the Russian 34th Brigade in Popovka (Sumy region) via GEOINT or ground assets.
[HIGH] Assess the damage to the specific 750kV substations in Lviv to estimate time-to-repair for the 600,000 affected subscribers.
[MEDIUM] Monitor frequency of fiber-optic FPV drone usage to determine if this is a systemic rollout or a localized field modification.
[LOW] Verify the legitimacy of the "$12 trillion cooperation" claim mentioned by Ukrainian leadership; determine if this is a psychological operation or a specific US diplomatic track.
