NATIONWIDE AIR ALERT (KINDZHAL THREAT): At 0923Z, a Russian MiG-31K (carrier of the Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" hypersonic missile) was confirmed airborne. Air raid sirens are active across all Ukrainian regions (KMVA, 0923Z; Air Force ZSU, 0923Z; HIGH).
STRIKE FOOTPRINT & INTERCEPTION RATES: Overnight strike data updated. Total volume: 408 UAVs and 39 missiles. UAF Air Defense intercepted 382 UAVs (93.6%) and 24 missiles (61.5%). Significant energy infrastructure damage reported in eight regions (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 0922Z; Operatsiya Z, 0941Z, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION: President Zelenskyy confirms US proposals for a peace framework targeting a summer 2026 conclusion. Zelenskyy reiterated the Ukrainian baseline: "stand where we stand" (РБК-Україна, 0916Z). References to a "Dmitriev package" regarding US-Russian side-channel negotiations are now surfacing (Operativno ZSU, 0932Z, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL RU-SECURITY: Suspects in the assassination attempt on GRU General-Lieutenant Alekseev have reportedly been extradited from the UAE to Russia (Alex Parker Returns, 0914Z; WarGonzo, 0931Z, MEDIUM).
TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT (REMOTE MINING): UAF 14th Brigade (National Guard "Chervona Kalyna") successfully employed remote-delivered mines against a Russian infantry squad, resulting in five casualties (Butusov Plus, 0921Z, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is characterized by an ongoing, multi-wave strategic air campaign and a simultaneous surge in high-level diplomatic signaling.
Battlefield Geometry: While the frontlines remain static (per DeepState map update at 0927Z), the "deep front" is active. The RuAF is utilizing the MiG-31K to maintain high-stress levels on the Ukrainian population and AD network following the overnight mass strike.
Weather/Environmental: A "severe glaze" (ice storm) is reported in the Mariupol sector, significantly degrading Russian logistics and public transport (Mash on Donbas, 0930Z). Sub-zero temperatures continue to exacerbate the impact of energy grid damage in eight regions.
Key Terrain: Energy nodes in eight regions remain the primary target of the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RuAF has demonstrated the ability to launch over 400 aerial assets in a single 24-hour cycle. The current MiG-31K sortie suggests a follow-on "precision" phase to the overnight mass saturation attack.
Tactical Changes: The enemy is increasingly using KABs (guided bombs) on the Zaporizhzhia and Sumy axes (Air Force ZSU, 0917Z, 0934Z) to suppress UAF tactical reserves.
Logistics & Sustainment: The Roshen warehouse destruction in Yahotyn is being framed by pro-Russian sources as a successful strike on a military-use facility, despite visual evidence of civilian goods (Alex Parker Returns, 0934Z).
Internal Security: The rapid extradition of the Alekseev suspects indicates high-level cooperation or successful GRU/FSB pressure on UAE authorities, potentially stabilizing the internal RU power struggle reported in the previous daily report.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Ukrainian Force Posture: AD units are maintaining a high UAV interception rate (>90%), but missile interception remains challenged by the variety of munitions (Kinzhal, Zircon, cruise missiles).
Tactical Successes: The 14th Brigade’s use of remote mining confirms high proficiency in "smart" defensive operations, compensating for infantry shortages.
Diplomatic/Strategic Position: The Ukrainian leadership is navigating a "peace surge" from the US while maintaining a rigid territorial stance. The "stand where we stand" policy suggests a refusal to concede territory currently held by RU forces but an openness to a freeze.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Peace Narrative: A massive influx of reporting on the "US Peace Plan" is likely a coordinated effort to soften Ukrainian domestic resolve during the blackout crisis.
Censorship Countermeasures: The promotion of ASTRA VPN (0937Z) indicates a growing friction between the Russian population’s desire for information and the Kremlin's digital "Iron Curtain."
Propaganda: Russian channels continue to disparage Ukrainian leadership (e.g., "Cocaine Fuehrer" tropes) to delegitimize the "stand where we stand" negotiation stance.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The current MiG-31K sortie is likely a "pressure flight" intended to keep AD systems active and localized, followed by tactical KAB strikes on front-line hubs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia within the next 3 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "Kinzhal" strike on the remaining operational 750 kV transformer nodes in Western Ukraine while AD assets are cooling/reloading from the overnight wave.
Timeline Estimate: The next 6 hours will be critical for grid stability. If the 0923Z MiG-31K sortie results in kinetic impacts, a systemic blackout in at least three more regions is probable.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the current MiG-31K sortie involved a "cold launch" or if missiles were released.
[HIGH] Identify the nature of the "Dmitriev package"—specifically, if it involves energy sector concessions.
[MEDIUM] BDA on the "eight regions" impacted by the overnight strike to prioritize mobile power unit deployment.
[LOW] Confirm the identity and affiliation of the Alekseev shooter suspects now in Russian custody.
