MASSIVE AERIAL ASSAULT: Ukrainian Air Force confirms a massive combined strike overnight; 24 missiles and 382 UAVs were downed/suppressed (Air Force ZSU/RBK-Ukraine, 0837Z, HIGH).
DEEP STRIKE (TVER): Confirmed Ukrainian drone attack on the Redkino Experimental Plant (ROZ) in Tver Oblast, a facility involved in chemical and aviation fuel production (ASTRA, 0814Z, HIGH).
ENERGY ATTRITION (BELGOROD): Following repeated Ukrainian strikes, the Governor of Belgorod confirms renewed widespread power outages across the region (RVvoenkor/Colonelcassad, 0817Z-0833Z, HIGH).
GRU C2 STABILIZATION: General-Lieutenant Vladimir Alekseev has regained consciousness and is reportedly speaking; sources claim the suspected shooter was detained in Dubai and is being extradited (Colonelcassad/Alex Parker Returns/Dnevnik Desantnika, 0817Z-0833Z, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED regarding extradition).
INTERNAL RUSSIAN PURGE: Deputy Head of the MChS (Ministry of Emergency Situations) Department, Arabidze, has been arrested on charges of fraud and bribery (TASS, 0829Z, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The strategic picture is dominated by the aftermath of the largest recorded UAV swarm in this theater (382 units). The enemy’s focus remains the systematic dismantling of the Ukrainian 750 kV and 330 kV grid nodes to force a nuclear decoupling.
Critical Terrain: The engagement zone has expanded into the Russian deep rear (Tver, ~150km NW of Moscow), indicating a Ukrainian effort to disrupt Russian industrial/chemical logistics.
Environmental Factors: Extreme cold continues to amplify the impact of energy infrastructure damage on both sides of the border.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RuAF has demonstrated a capacity for unprecedented volume in UAV operations. The shift toward using nearly 400 drones in a single night suggests a transition from "precision strikes" to "saturation attrition" designed to deplete Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) interceptor stocks.
Tactical Changes: Russian aviation is maintaining high-tempo sorties in the South, launching KABs (guided bombs) toward Dnipropetrovsk (Air Force ZSU, 0814Z).
Command & Control (C2): The recovery of General Alekseev may mitigate the immediate vacuum in GRU leadership, but the simultaneous arrest of a high-ranking MChS official (Arabidze) suggests a wider "loyalty or efficiency" purge within the Russian security apparatus following recent failures.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Posture: UAF Air Defense continues to demonstrate high efficiency (100% missile interception based on current reports, though drone leakage is likely given the sheer volume).
Successes: Continued tactical proficiency in drone warfare is evidenced by the 63rd Brigade’s successful engagements against Russian infantry in the East (Butusov Plus, 0836Z).
Constraints: Despite high AD success, the Prime Minister has acknowledged that the "core" of the energy system was targeted, indicating that the remaining operational nodes are under extreme strain (Operatsiya Z, 0841Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian Narrative: Pro-Russian channels are capitalizing on Ukrainian government transparency (Shmyhal’s statements) to amplify a sense of impending grid collapse.
Diversionary Tactics: Russian state media (TASS) and local Moscow outlets are saturating the domestic space with non-war news (actress health rumors, ecological warnings about insects) to distract from the Belgorod outages and the Tver strike (TASS/Novosti Moskvy, 0817Z-0822Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian forces will conduct a BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the 750 kV nodes today and likely follow up with localized KAB strikes in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk sector to maintain pressure while Ukrainian AD is preoccupied with the capital and energy nodes.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A secondary UAV wave of similar scale (300+) within the next 24 hours. If Ukrainian AD stocks are depleted from last night's engagement, the "leakage" rate could increase significantly, leading to a permanent blackout in central hubs.
Timeline: Grid stabilization efforts in the next 4-8 hours will determine if rolling blackouts transition into a total systemic collapse.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA of the Redkino Experimental Plant (Tver)—determine if production of specialized fuels or chemicals has been halted.
[HIGH] Technical verification of the "382 drones" figure—analyze the mix of Shahed-136 vs. cheaper "Gerber" or decoy variants used to saturate AD.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of the status of the "Chuhunivka" sector (Kharkiv) following yesterday's unconfirmed reports of Russian capture.
[LOW] Verification of the "Dubai extradition" claim regarding the Alekseev shooter to determine potential international intelligence cooperation or a Russian disinformation plant.
