NATIONAL GRID CRISIS: Ministry of Energy confirms massive strikes targeting the 750 kV and 330 kV backbone; all Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have been forced to reduce generation due to grid instability (MinEnergo/Sternenko, 0809Z, HIGH).
STRATEGIC ENERGY ATTRITION: Confirmed strikes on energy infrastructure in Lviv Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, and Kyiv Oblast (Tripilska TPP and 750 kV "Kyivska" substation) (Operativno ZSU/RBK-Ukraine/Voenkor Kotenok, 0747Z-0806Z, HIGH).
TERRITORIAL LOSS (KHARKIV): Russian forces have reportedly captured the village of Chuhunivka in the Kharkiv region (RVvoenkor/Colonelcassad, 0749Z, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
BELGOROD INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE: Following Ukrainian strikes, Belgorod city and surrounding districts are experiencing widespread electricity and water outages (ASTRA/Operativno ZSU, 0803Z, HIGH).
INTERNAL RUSSIAN SECURITY: GRU Deputy Chief General Alekseev has reportedly regained consciousness following an assassination attempt; the alleged shooter has been detained (RVvoenkor, 0757Z, MEDIUM).
AERIAL THREAT CONTINUITY: Groups of Russian UAVs are currently transiting Sumy Oblast on a western course toward Chernihiv (Air Force ZSU, 0752Z, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is dominated by a systematic Russian effort to decouple the Ukrainian power grid from its nuclear generation heartland. By targeting the 750 kV "high-voltage" backbone, the enemy is successfully inducing a technical "unloading" of NPPs, which threatens the total collapse of the national energy system during sub-zero temperatures.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus has shifted from the "grey zone" skirmishes of the last 24h to a confirmed Russian advance in the Kharkiv border sector (Chuhunivka).
Weather: Continued extreme cold (-27°C). Icing remains a critical factor for ground logistics, while Russian sources report a "shortage of icebreakers" potentially impacting riverine or maritime sustainment (Kotsnews, 0744Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Course of Action (COA): The RuAF is executing a multi-axis air campaign. While heavy missiles target the 750/330 kV substations in the West and Center, Shahed-type UAVs are being used to saturate defenses in the North (Sumy/Chernihiv).
Tactical Changes: Russian units (notably the "Grachi" detachment in the Kostyantynivka direction) are increasingly documenting FPV drone efficacy against Ukrainian tactical positions (Dva Mayora, 0745Z).
Logistics: Significant Russian fundraising efforts for ATVs and motorcycles (Voenkor Kotenok, 0800Z) suggest high attrition of standard transport and a shift toward small, high-mobility tactical logistics to bypass frozen/iced road bottlenecks.
Internal C2: The recovery of General Alekseev may temporarily stabilize the GRU’s command structure, though the "inside job" narrative persists, likely fueling ongoing MoD/FSB friction.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Posture: Ukrainian Air Defense is prioritizing the protection of remaining 330 kV nodes. The forced reduction in NPP output creates a "spinning reserve" crisis, making the grid highly vulnerable to even small-scale follow-on strikes.
Tactical Successes: 225th Separate Assault Regiment (OShP) remains active in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating high resilience against Russian FPV swarms; visually confirmed destruction of a Russian soldier after a 12-drone engagement (Butusov, 0747Z).
Constraints: Power outages in Lviv and Rivne are impacting rear-area logistics and civilian sustainment hubs (OVA reports).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian Propaganda: Heavy circulation of "forced mobilization" videos (Colonelcassad, 0745Z) aimed at domestic Ukrainian unrest. Russian state media (TASS) is attempting to pivot international attention toward Western conspiracy theories (Epstein/Rothschilds) to dilute focus on energy strikes (TASS, 0811Z).
Narrative Shift: Pro-Russian channels are highlighting Ukraine's transition to "American Gas" (Dva Mayora, 0810Z), framing it as a loss of sovereignty to discourage local populations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian forces will launch a secondary UAV wave tonight to prevent repair crews from stabilizing the 750 kV nodes. Expect continued localized pushes in the Kharkiv direction to capitalize on the "blackout" confusion.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the switching stations of the NPPs themselves. While generation is reduced, a direct hit on the physical connection points could lead to a long-term grid "island" effect, leaving entire Oblasts without power for weeks.
Timeline: The next 6-12 hours are critical for grid stabilization. If frequency cannot be maintained, additional NPP units will automatically trip offline.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of Chuhunivka’s status; determine if UAF has established a new defensive line west of the village.
[HIGH] Technical assessment of the 750 kV "Kyivska" substation—is the damage repairable within a 48h window?
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian "North" group movement near the newly claimed border positions for signs of mechanized exploitation.
[MEDIUM] BDA of the Belgorod strikes to determine if the outage is due to direct hits or protective tripping of the Russian regional grid.
