AIR CAMPAIGN EXPANSION: Kinetic strikes confirmed on an educational facility and five surrounding buildings (dormitories) in Vinnytsia Oblast (0737Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
KYIV PERIPHERY IMPACT: Damage reported in Brovary district, Kyiv Oblast, with five private houses and four vehicles struck (0732Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE ATTRITION: Strike on a multi-story residential building in Rivne confirmed following earlier reports of critical infrastructure hits (0727Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
DEEP STRIKE (RUSSIA): Massive Ukrainian UAV attack (plane-type) confirmed targeting Tver Oblast (approx. 160km NW of Moscow) (0723Z, Dva Mayora, HIGH).
NORTHERN BORDER SHIFT: Russian "North" group claims the capture of another unnamed border village in the Kharkiv direction (0723Z, Dva Mayora, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
BELGOROD COUNTER-STRIKE: Belgorod city is currently under a "massive missile strike" with air defenses active; follows a drone strike on a vehicle earlier this morning (0718Z, 0730Z, ASTRA/Poddubny, MEDIUM).
LOGISTICAL WEATHER IMPEDIMENT: Severe icing (black ice) reported across Dnipropetrovsk and occupied Donbas (Zugres-Shakhtarsk axis), causing significant multi-vehicle collisions and slowing military movements (0720Z, 0737Z, Dnipropetrovsk OVA/Mash na Donbasse, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment has transitioned from a focused strike on the 750kV backbone to a broader "terror and saturation" phase. While Western Ukraine reports a temporary pause in "Geran/Shahed" loitering munition activity (0713Z), Russian aviation has surged KAB (guided bomb) strikes in Northern Kharkiv.
Weather/Environment: Severe icing conditions are now a primary tactical constraint. While the -27°C cold persists, the development of "black ice" on the M-04 and local supply routes in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts is impeding logistical throughput. Over 100 specialized vehicles are deployed in Dnipropetrovsk alone to maintain road viability (0720Z).
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline in Kharkiv is seeing renewed Russian probing actions. Ukraine is responding with asymmetric deep strikes (Tver, Kursk, Belgorod) to force Russian air defense redistribution.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Course of Action (COA): The enemy is diversifying target sets. Having "unloaded" the Ukrainian NPPs (as per previous report), RuAF is now hitting secondary support infrastructure (Vinnytsia dormitories, Rivne residential sectors) to maximize the humanitarian burden during the energy crisis.
Tactical Changes: Russian forces are increasing the use of KABs in the North (Slatyne, Zolochiv) to support claimed border advances (0731Z).
Logistics: Evidence of frontline vehicle attrition continues; visual confirmation of the loss of tactical transport (UAZ-type) in the SVO zone suggests high wear-and-tear under extreme environmental conditions (0714Z).
Russian Rear Vulnerability: The strike in Tver indicates Ukrainian capability to penetrate deep into the Russian interior despite heightened Russian AD posture, likely targeting industrial or energy sites in the Konakovo/Tver sector.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Posture: UAF Air Defense remains engaged in a high-tempo intercept cycle. A "high-speed target" (likely a ballistic or cruise missile) was tracked moving south through Kharkiv Oblast at 0728Z, indicating the missile wave is not yet fully exhausted.
Successes: Effective deep-strike coordination against Kursk (1 KIA enemy/3 WIA) and Tver Oblast demonstrates sustained long-range reach despite the ongoing domestic energy crisis.
Constraints: Road mobility is severely hampered by weather. Local OVAs are diverted to maintaining "GLOCs" (Ground Lines of Communication) for civilian and military use.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian Narrative: Russian milbloggers (Voin DV) are aggressively amplifying claims that the Huliaipole/Orikhiv sector will soon see a major Russian offensive, directly challenging Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's assessments to sow doubt in UAF command (0730Z).
Psychological Operations: Continued focus on "blackout" imagery and residential damage in Western Ukraine is intended to break civilian resolve in areas previously considered relatively safe.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian forces will attempt to consolidate "grey zone" gains in the Kharkiv border region while maintaining UAV pressure on Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk (0741Z) to keep UAF air defenses fragmented.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A secondary missile wave targeting the road maintenance and emergency response hubs in Dnipropetrovsk, leveraging the weather-induced bottleneck to trap military logistics in the open during the freeze.
Decision Points: The scale of the Tver strike response—if Russia retaliates specifically against Kyiv decision-making centers—will indicate if the "deep strike" exchange has reached a new escalatory plateau.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of the specific village allegedly captured by GvR "North" in the Kharkiv direction.
[HIGH] Technical BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Tver Oblast strike—identify if the target was the Konakovo GRES or a military-industrial facility.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of Starlink performance for UAF units in the Kharkiv border region following the "White List" implementation reported in the 24h brief.
[LOW] Status of the high-speed target tracked moving south from Kharkiv toward Poltava/Dnipro.
