CRITICAL GRID FAILURE: PM Shmyhal confirms RuAF successfully targeted the 750 kV and 330 kV backbone transmission lines and substations; national grid in emergency status with 4.5–5 tiers of outages (0647Z, 0654Z, Operativno ZSU/Shmyhal, HIGH).
NPP STABILIZATION MEASURES: Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) blocks have been "unloaded" (power output reduced) as a protective measure to prevent catastrophic failure during grid frequency instability (0647Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
WESTERN TPP STRIKES: Kinetic impacts confirmed at Burshtyn TPP (Ivano-Frankivsk) and Dobrotvir TPP (Lviv), severely degrading generation capacity in the Western regional cluster (0659Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
EMERGENCY AID REQUESTED: Ukraine has officially activated a request for emergency energy assistance from Poland to stabilize the frequency of the integrated European-Ukrainian grid (0654Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
KINETIC STRIKE RIVNE: Confirmed "arrival" in Rivne resulting in a major fire at a critical infrastructure site and injuries to two civilians (0646Z, 0704Z, Tsaplienko/Rivne OVA, HIGH).
SPACE DOMAIN THREAT: Reports indicate Russian spacecraft are conducting aggressive close-proximity reconnaissance/harassment of European satellites; corroboration by German military officials cited (0646Z, Basurin, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
INTERNAL RU ATTRITION: Death of Sergey Tropin (Former Deputy Minister of Justice) reported as "heart failure"; notably follows the critical wounding of GRU General Alekseev, suggesting potential internal purges (0644Z, TASS, LOW).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is dominated by a systematic Russian effort to collapse the Ukrainian Integrated Power System (IPS). The focus has shifted from local distribution to the 750kV/330kV backbone, which facilitates power transfer from NPPs to urban centers.
Weather/Environment: Extreme cold (-27°C) remains the primary force multiplier for Russian strikes. Frozen ground supports heavy vehicle movement, but the energy deficit prevents effective heating for civilian and industrial sectors.
Battlefield Geometry: While the "deep front" is aerial, the Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka sectors remain the primary ground axes of concern.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Course of Action (COA): The enemy is executing a "Systemic Blackout" COA. By targeting 750kV nodes, they aim to isolate NPPs from the grid, forcing automatic shutdowns that can take days to reverse.
Adaptations: RuAF is utilizing a high-low mix of loitering munitions (to drain AD) and high-precision missiles (Kh-101 with decoys) to hit hardened transmission infrastructure.
Logistics/Sustainment: Activity at GRAU Site 105 has transitioned from "loading" to "active expenditure," confirming the predicted 24-48 hour window for a major wave is currently open.
Space Ops: The reported harassment of European satellites suggests a hybrid attempt to degrade NATO ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) or communications without crossing the threshold of kinetic orbital warfare.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Posture: UAF Air Defense is prioritizing high-value energy nodes (NPPs and 750kV substations). The decision to "unload" NPPs indicates a high level of technical discipline to prevent a total grid collapse.
Tactical Success: The 414th Brigade ("Madyar's Birds") continues to demonstrate high-efficiency FPV operations in the Pokrovsk sector, claiming 1,385 enemy personnel neutralized via drones between Feb 1-5 (0658Z, Butusov, MEDIUM).
Constraints: Extreme cold and lack of stable power are degrading maintenance cycles for Western-supplied hardware.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian Propaganda: Pro-Russian channels (Two Majors) are amplifying "peace talk" narratives sourced from Western media to foster a sense of "inevitable surrender" or territorial compromise (0709Z).
Ukrainian Morale: Domestic channels are focused on national resilience, utilizing the "National Minute of Silence" (09:00 local) and fundraising for "revenge strikes" (0707Z, Sternenko) to maintain cognitive cohesion despite the outages.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RuAF will continue UAV "harassment" waves over Western Ukraine (Rivne/Lviv) through the next 6-12 hours to prevent repair crews from accessing the hit substations.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the switchyards directly adjacent to NPPs. While the reactors are "unloaded," a strike on their connection points would cause a long-term isolation of the most stable power source in the country.
Decision Points: Activation of Polish emergency power will be the critical indicator for whether the Ukrainian IPS can maintain frequency stability or if a "total dark" scenario is imminent.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Status of the 750kV line connecting the Khmelnytskyi NPP to the central grid.
[HIGH] Technical BDA on the Burshtyn and Dobrotvir TPPs—specifically if turbines or transformers were the primary targets.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of the "Space harrying" reports via independent orbital tracking data.
[MEDIUM] Movement of the 78th "Sever-AKHMAT" regiment in the Konstantinovka sector to identify the next localized assault vector.
