MASSIVE COMBINED AERIAL ASSAULT: Ukrainian sources characterize the overnight attack as one of the most significant by volume of loitering munitions (Shahed-type) since the full-scale invasion began (0629Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH).
CRUISE MISSILE ADAPTATION: Deployment of Kh-101 cruise missiles utilizing thermal decoys/flares was documented on approach to Rivne, indicating advanced Russian countermeasures against Ukrainian MANPADS/SHORAD (0633Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH).
NATO AIRSPACE RESPONSE: Poland scrambled military aircraft in response to the high density of Russian strikes near the Ukrainian-Polish border (0613Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE: A significant fire has broken out at a large warehouse facility in Yahotyn, Kyiv region (Roshen facility), following a kinetic strike (0625Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, MEDIUM).
WESTERN UKRAINE FOCUS: Continued UAV presence (6 units) vectoring toward Rivne and Ostroh, and additional units targeting Dobrotvir (Lviv region), suggesting a focus on the electrical hubs of the western grid (0631Z, 0641Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
SECTOR CONFIRMATION (DNR): Presence of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-AKHMAT" confirmed active in the Konstantinovka sector (0635Z, Kadyrov_95, MEDIUM).
RECIPROCAL STRIKES: Russian MoD confirms interception of 82 Ukrainian UAVs across multiple Russian regions between 2300Z and 0700Z (0630Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The battlefield geometry is currently defined by a high-intensity, multi-domain Russian aerial campaign targeting the strategic depth of Ukraine. While ground contact remains localized in the East and South, the primary "front" has shifted to the national airspace.
Weather: Sub-zero temperatures (-27°C reported in daily brief) continue to exacerbate the impact of the National Grid Emergency, as emergency shutdowns now affect most regions (0614Z, Операция Z).
Control Measures: Air defense remains the priority control measure; however, the saturation of the Rivne and Lviv sectors suggests an attempt to overwhelm local AD clusters to hit high-value energy targets like the Dobrotvir TPP.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: The Russian Federation (RuAF) is executing a "Saturate and Strike" COA. By launching record numbers of Shaheds (0629Z), they force the expenditure of interceptors before following up with high-tech cruise missiles (Kh-101) equipped with flare dispensers to defeat remaining defenses (0633Z).
Tactical Adaptations: The use of decoys on cruise missiles indicates a refusal to accept attrition of high-cost munitions, suggesting RuAF expects prolonged SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) operations.
Logistics: The RuAF "Sever-AKHMAT" units are maintaining operational tempo in Konstantinovka, likely supported by the munitions recently moved from GRAU Site 105 (ref: Previous Daily Report).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Posture: UAF Air Defense remains highly active but is facing extreme saturation in the Western Sector (Rivne/Lviv).
Deep Strike Capability: UAF's ability to launch 82 UAVs simultaneously into Russian territory (0630Z) confirms that domestic power outages have not yet degraded the C2 (Command and Control) or launch capabilities of long-range drone units.
Constraints: The hit on the Yahotyn warehouse (0625Z) may impact localized logistics/sustenance supply, though its primary role appears civilian/commercial.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian Disinformation/Narratives: Russian channels are amplifying "emergency outage" reports to degrade Ukrainian morale. Simultaneously, state media (TASS) is using foreign officials (Slovakia's Gaspar) to project an image of European fragmentation and regional stability in Moscow-aligned spheres (0634Z).
Cognitive Ops: The emphasis on the Kh-101's "invincibility" via decoys is a clear attempt to project technological superiority over Western-supplied AD systems.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RuAF will maintain loitering munition presence over Western Ukraine (Dobrotvir/Rivne) through the morning to prevent utility crews from beginning repairs, prolonging the "Dark Phase" into the next 24-hour cycle.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A second wave of cruise missiles, potentially Kalibrs from the Black Sea, timed to coincide with the exhaustion of Western-sector SHORAD magazines.
Timeline: Next 3-6 hours are critical for grid stabilization. Expect continued air activity in the Lviv/Rivne corridor.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) for Dobrotvir TPP and Yahotyn facility.
[HIGH] Verify if Polish aircraft engagement involved intercepts or remained within Polish airspace (De-confliction requirement).
[MEDIUM] Identification of specific launch platforms for the 82-UAV strike on Russia to assess UAF's resilient launch infrastructure.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for RU "Sever-AKHMAT" movement toward the Hychur River axis to see if the Huliaipole offensive is receiving reinforcements.
