NATIONAL GRID EMERGENCY: Ukrenergo has officially confirmed emergency power shutdowns across Kyiv and the majority of Ukrainian regions following systemic kinetic damage to energy infrastructure (0542Z, Операция Z, HIGH).
WESTERN UKRAINE UAV PERSISTENCE: New groups of UAVs (Geran-2/Shahed) are currently over the Lviv region, vectoring toward Khodoriv. This follows the 0533Z vector toward Dobrotvir, indicating a sustained effort to suppress power restoration (0555Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA OFFENSIVE Gathers Momentum: The Russian "Vostok" Group of Forces has initiated offensive actions west of Huliaipole on the left bank of the Hychur River (0543Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM).
UKRAINIAN DEEP STRIKE ACTIVITY: Russian MoD claims the interception of 82 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory overnight, confirming sustained UAF "deep battle" operations against Russian rear logistics (0544Z, Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM).
RUSSIAN ATTRITION RATE: UAF General Staff reports 730 Russian personnel liquidated and significant equipment losses over the 24h period ending 070000Z FEB (0550Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
U.S.-INDIA GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT: Reports indicate the U.S. has canceled a 25% tariff on Indian goods following New Delhi’s pivot away from Russian oil, potentially tightening the long-term economic squeeze on the Kremlin (0602Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Sector (Lviv, Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk)
Status: Active Air Defense Engagement / Grid Instability.
Activity: Following the cruise missile wave, the sector remains under "loitering threat." UAVs are currently transiting Lviv Oblast toward Khodoriv (0555Z).
Critical Infrastructure: Damage to the western energy spine is confirmed by both Ukrainian and Russian sources as "significant," with expectations of prolonged outages (0556Z, Dva Mayora).
2. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole)
Status: Localized Enemy Offensive.
Activity: A new tactical axis has opened west of Huliaipole. Russian forces are attempting to leverage the left bank of the Hychur River to bypass established Ukrainian defensive nodes.
Force Disposition: The involvement of the "Vostok" Group suggests a shift from localized raiding to more structured company-level assaults.
3. Strategic Rear (Kyiv/Sumy/National)
Status: Strategic Blackout.
Activity: Emergency outages are now the primary operational constraint for rear-area logistics and production.
Russian Rear: The 82-UAV strike reported by RU MoD suggests UAF is targeting the "source" of these missile waves, likely focusing on the GRAU arsenals or airbases identified in previous SAR satellite analysis.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactics: The enemy has transitioned to the "Dark Phase" (as predicted at 0542Z). By using UAVs to loiter over Khodoriv and Dobrotvir (0555Z), they are effectively denying repair windows (Anti-Access/Area Denial at the repair level).
Capabilities: Despite heavy attrition (730 KIA in 24h), the Russian MoD maintains the capacity for synchronized multi-domain strikes (Air/UAV/Ground).
Adaptation: Russian "Sever-V" units are increasingly utilizing FPV drones and "drop" munitions in a systematic "hunt" for UAF infantry in snowy terrain, compensating for poor visibility with high-density drone coverage (0603Z, Colonelcassad).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Battery/Deep Strike: UAF's mass-launch of 82 UAVs into Russia indicates a robust capability to conduct high-volume, synchronized drone operations despite the domestic power crisis.
Defensive Posture: UAF units near Huliaipole are under pressure; however, no confirmed loss of major settlements has been verified following the Vostok Group's movement.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Russian "Normalization" Narratives: Russian state media (TASS) is highlighting "business as usual" stories, such as Prada registering trademarks (0601Z), to project economic resilience despite the Olympic-season exclusion and sanctions.
Divergent Morale: While Russian milbloggers dismiss the Olympics (0542Z), they are heavily amplifying energy strike successes to bolster domestic support for the winter campaign (0601Z, Fighterbomber).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV harassment of energy nodes in Western Ukraine (Khodoriv, Stryi, Burshtyn) to prevent grid stabilization before nightfall. Intensified pressure on the Huliaipole-Hychur River axis.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A breakthrough in the Huliaipole sector coinciding with a total telecommunications blackout in the strategic rear, preventing UAF reinforcements from being coordinated effectively.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the specific target in Khodoriv—identify if the target is a rail junction or energy substation to assess impact on Western supply lines.
[HIGH] Verify the extent of the 82-UAV strike inside Russia—corroborate Russian claims of 100% interception with BDA of potential targets (Kapustin Yar or Site 105).
[HIGH] Assess the strength of the Russian "Vostok" Group west of Huliaipole—determine if this is a breakout attempt or a fix-and-bypass maneuver.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the impact of the Starlink "White List" on the newly reported Vostok Group offensive—determine if their C2 is degraded in the Hychur River sector.
