TERMINAL PHASE MANEUVERS: The wave of 22 cruise missiles has entered the terminal phase, executing complex maneuvers over Western Ukraine to bypass AD, specifically targeting Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Ternopil Oblasts (0500Z-0510Z, AFU Air Force/Vanek, HIGH).
CONCENTRATED STRIKES ON ENERGY NODES: Multiple missiles are impacting or on final approach to the Burshtyn (9 missiles + 1 UAV) and Dobrotvir (7 missiles + 2 UAVs) Thermal Power Plants (TPPs) (0505Z-0506Z, Vanek, HIGH).
KINETIC IMPACTS (RIVNE): Explosions confirmed in Rivne following UAV approach, indicating a secondary axis of attack in the northwest (0455Z, Suspilne, HIGH).
GRID INSTABILITY (KYIV): Emergency power outages have been implemented in Kyiv due to the ongoing Russian missile attack (0511Z, DTEK, HIGH).
STARLINK DISRUPTION IMPACT: Russian military channels are openly appealing for funds to replace connectivity lost due to the "White List" lockout, confirming significant tactical C2 degradation (0502Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
SOUTHERN CASUALTIES: Ten injuries reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the last 24 hours following intensified KAB and drone strikes (0510Z, ZOGA, HIGH).
UAV ENGAGEMENT (BRYANSK): Russian MoD claims to have intercepted 8 Ukrainian UAVs over Bryansk Oblast (0459Z, Bogomaz, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Sector (Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Rivne)
Status: Under High-Intensity Kinetic Attack.
Activity: The enemy is currently executing a coordinated strike on the Western Ukrainian energy "spine." Missiles are transiting through central Khmelnytskyi toward North Ternopil (Zbarazh/Grymailiv) and then vectoring toward Lviv (Brody/Dobrotvir) and Ivano-Frankivsk (Burshtyn/Kolomyia).
Tactical Observation: A cruise missile originally heading for Kolomyia executed a 180-degree turn toward Ivano-Frankivsk, suggesting pre-programmed pathing to confuse AD or late-stage target reallocation (0502Z, Vanek).
2. Southern/Zaporizhzhia Sector
Status: Active Combat Zone.
Activity: Russian "Vostok" group units are employing C-UAS tactics against Ukrainian heavy "Baba Yaga" hexacopters in the Polohy direction (0500Z, Voin DV).
Analysis: The persistent KAB surge and drone activity in the South are likely intended to fix Ukrainian reserves while the Western power grid is systematically degraded.
3. Rear/Strategic Area (Kyiv, Chernivtsi)
Status: Defensive Posture.
Activity: Chernivtsi ODA has issued a high-threat alert as missiles passed through Northern Chernivtsi (0454Z). Kyiv is experiencing immediate grid management measures (outages) to protect the regional system from cascading failure.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactics: High reliance on fiber-optic FPV drones ("Vandal Novgorodsky") is being promoted in the VDV sectors (0503Z, Colonelcassad). This capability is likely being pushed to mitigate the loss of Starlink-enabled drone control.
Capabilities: The precision maneuvers over Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk demonstrate sophisticated mission planning intended to maximize the "time-on-target" for the 22-missile wave, overwhelming local point-defense systems at TPPs.
Course of Action:
MLCOA: Continued strike on Lviv/Ivano-Frankivsk energy infrastructure followed by a 2-4 hour lull to assess damage via satellite/long-range UAV.
MDCOA: A residual wave of sea-launched Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea (currently unverified) targeting the repair crews and emergency services at Burshtyn/Dobrotvir during BDA.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Actively engaging targets over Rivne and Ternopil.
Resource Management: DTEK has shifted to proactive grid protection. The "White List" Starlink measures are confirmed to be causing friction within Russian frontline units, forcing them to rely on unsecured or less capable alternatives.
Counter-Strikes: Ukrainian UAV operations into Bryansk and other Russian regions continue to target military infrastructure, likely focusing on AD radars to create windows for future long-range strikes.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Strategic Influence: Russian state media (TASS) is amplifying external narratives (Italian Strategic Culture) suggesting the US will force Ukraine into "harder" negotiations, aiming to undermine domestic Ukrainian resolve during the missile campaign.
Tactical Propaganda: Promotion of the "Vandal Novgorodsky" drone emphasizes a pivot to "EW-resistant" technology to mask the vulnerabilities created by the Starlink lockout.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Grid Stability: High probability of rolling blackouts across Western and Central Ukraine as the extent of damage to Burshtyn and Dobrotvir TPPs is assessed.
Kinetic Activity: Expect a transition from cruise missile strikes to persistent UAV "harassment" waves to delay infrastructure repair.
Logistics: Possible disruption of rail transit in the Lviv-Khmelnytskyi corridor if substation damage is severe.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA of Burshtyn and Dobrotvir TPPs—verify if turbine halls or substations were the primary impact points.
[HIGH] Status of Russian cruise missile carriers (Black Sea Fleet)—monitor for reload activity or movement to launch positions.
[HIGH] Effectiveness of fiber-optic FPVs—collect data on the range and frequency of "Vandal Novgorodsky" deployments to adjust EWAR profiles.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian internal comms for further evidence of "Starlink-purge" impact on frontline tactical coordination.
