MASSIVE MISSILE INGRESS: Approximately 22 cruise missiles (CR) have entered Ukrainian airspace, transiting through Mykolaiv and Northern Odesa toward Vinnytsia Oblast (0427Z, Vanek, HIGH).
KINETIC IMPACTS (BURSHTYN): Explosions reported at Burshtyn, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, confirming the Energy Infrastructure strike focus (0438Z, Suspilne, HIGH).
WESTERN MANEUVER: A group of 8 UAVs has maneuvered from the Carpathians toward Khodoriv/Zhydachiv in Lviv Oblast (0416Z, Vanek/AFU AF, HIGH).
KAB SURGE (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Russian tactical aviation has launched a fresh wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against Zaporizhzhia Oblast (0412Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
NEW CAPABILITY DEPLOYMENT: Russia claims the first field deployment and "approbation" of the new "Sarma" MLRS in the combat zone (0433Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
UKRAINIAN COUNTER-STRIKE: Russian MoD claims to have intercepted 82 Ukrainian UAVs over various Russian regions overnight (0416Z, TASS, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
KYIV EXPLOSION: Unconfirmed reports of an explosion in Kyiv (0414Z, NgP Razvedka, LOW). This may indicate local AD engagement or a localized strike.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Sector (Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Khmelnytskyi)
Status: Under High-Intensity Attack.
Activity: The Burshtyn TPP is under active bombardment. 22 cruise missiles are currently on a NW vector through Vinnytsia, specifically targeting the Khmelnytskyi/Lviv corridor.
Analysis: This is a concentrated effort to degrade the Western Ukrainian power grid and likely target the Starokostiantyniv airbase (Khmelnytskyi) or logistical hubs near the Polish border.
Activity: The enemy is using the Mykolaiv-Odesa border area as a primary ingress corridor to bypass central AD clusters. Missiles are currently transiting southern Vinnytsia (Trostyanets, Vapnyarka) toward the west.
Force Disposition: High concentration of RU tactical aviation remains active in the Black Sea/Azov periphery to support KAB launches.
3. Zaporizhzhia Sector
Status: Kinetic Engagement.
Activity: Simultaneous UAV and KAB attacks on Zaporizhzhia city and the surrounding oblast. UAVs are approaching from the northeast (0434Z).
Analysis: The objective is likely to fix AFU AD and reserve forces in the south, preventing their relocation to protect energy nodes in the west.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactics: The "Loiter and Strike" tactic is evident. UAVs were used to map AD response times over the Carpathians before the 22-missile CR wave was committed to the Vinnytsia-Khmelnytskyi vector.
New Capabilities: The "Sarma" MLRS deployment (0433Z) suggests Russia is introducing more mobile, high-precision rocket artillery to the front, likely to counter AFU's high-mobility artillery systems.
Course of Action:
MLCOA: The 22 missiles currently in flight will impact energy and military infrastructure in Khmelnytskyi and Lviv Oblasts within the next 30-45 minutes.
MDCOA: A portion of the 22 missiles performs a sharp terminal-phase maneuver toward Kyiv or toward the Polish border to test NATO-adjacent AD responses.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: AFU Air Force is actively tracking and engaging multiple targets across five oblasts. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are focusing on the 8 UAVs in the Lviv/Ivano-Frankivsk border area.
Retaliation: The reported launch of 82 UAVs into Russian territory indicates a synchronized Ukrainian long-range strike intended to disrupt Russian launch platforms or C2 centers during the Russian missile wave.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Strategic Distraction: Russian state media is highlighting US-Iran tensions (0432Z, 0440Z) and the "Sarma" MLRS to project an image of technological superiority and international geopolitical leverage.
Disinformation: The claim of 82 intercepted UKR drones likely inflates success rates to mask potential damage at Russian launch sites or depots (e.g., Kapustin Yar/Site 105).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Immediate (0-2h): Mass kinetic impacts expected in Western Ukraine. High risk of power outages and infrastructure damage.
Short-term (2-6h): Expect a "second wave" of Shahed UAVs to loiter over impact zones to disrupt emergency services and conduct BDA.
Tactical: Increased Russian ground pressure in the Zaporizhzhia/Vremivka sectors is expected as "Sarma" MLRS units begin field integration.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of the explosion in Kyiv—determine if it was a missile bypass, AD success, or a separate sabotage/EWAR event.
[HIGH] Identify the specific deployment area of "Sarma" MLRS units to prioritize counter-battery fire.
[HIGH] BDA of Burshtyn TPP and assessment of the western grid's stability.
[MEDIUM] Confirm the current status of Russian cruise missile carriers in the Black Sea to assess the threat of a sea-launched follow-up wave.
