CRUISE MISSILE INGRESS: Cruise missiles (CR) have officially entered Ukrainian airspace, detected over northern Kherson Oblast on a vector toward Mykolaiv Oblast/Snihurivka (0411Z, AFU Air Force/Vanek, HIGH).
ZAKARPATTIA ENGAGED: The UAV threat has expanded to the furthest western reaches of Ukraine, with sightings in Zakarpattia (Yasinia, Mizhhirya) (0355Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
VREMIVKA SECTOR STRIKES: Russian tactical aviation (11th Guards Air Army) is conducting strikes against AFU positions in the Vremivka direction, specifically targeting Horke, Lyubytske, and Komsomolske (0403Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
KREMENCHUK VECTOR: A new UAV threat is approaching Kremenchuk from the northeast (0353Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA CITY THREAT: Shahed-type UAVs have reached the southern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city (0402Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Sector (Zakarpattia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk)
Status: Active Air Defense Engagement.
Activity: The geographic scope of the attack has reached its maximum extent with UAVs entering Zakarpattia. Combined with the ongoing focus on the Burshtyn TPP (Ivano-Frankivsk), the enemy is attempting to saturate the entire Western AD cluster.
Analysis: Ingress into Zakarpattia suggests a maneuver to bypass traditional AD corridors or target specialized border/energy infrastructure.
Activity: Cruise missiles are transiting the Beryslav district (Kherson) toward Snihurivka. In Zaporizhzhia, UAVs are in the terminal phase of their flight path over the city, while tactical aviation continues to pummel the Vremivka salient.
Analysis: The Southern sector is currently the "breach point" for the cruise missile wave. The simultaneous UAV/KAB/CR attack is designed to fix AFU resources in place to prevent reinforcement of the northern or central AD sectors.
3. Central Sector (Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Poltava)
Status: Transit / Air Alert.
Activity: Multiple UAV groups are transiting southern Kirovohrad toward Vinnytsia. The Kremenchuk vector (from the NE) creates a pincer-like UAV profile for the central industrial heartland.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Changes: The enemy has transitioned from the "saturation phase" (UAVs) to the "kinetic phase" (Cruise Missiles). The timing of the missile entry into the South (0411Z) coincides with UAVs reaching the furthest Western points, forcing Ukrainian AD commanders to make impossible choices regarding asset allocation.
Capabilities: Russia is demonstrating high synchronization between the 11th Guards Air Army (tactical) and Long-Range Aviation (strategic).
Course of Action:
MLCOA: Cruise missiles will likely track toward central and western energy nodes (Burshtyn, Stryi, or Kyiv) within the next 30-45 minutes.
MDCOA: Use of the Mykolaiv vector as a "feint" for a sea-based Kalibr launch from the Black Sea to strike Odesa while AD is looking north.
Friendly forces (Blue force tracking)
Posture: National air defense systems are fully engaged. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are active in Kirovohrad and Vinnytsia.
Successes: No confirmed hits in this reporting window; however, the expansion of the air alert to Zakarpattia indicates proactive tracking.
Constraints: The wide geographic dispersion of targets (from Zakarpattia to Zaporizhzhia) is stretching the density of the AD umbrella.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Direct Threats: Pro-Russian channels (NgP Razvedka) are explicitly stating that the "Burshtyn TPP is not needed," reinforcing the psychological intent to freeze the civilian population (0350Z).
Strategic Disinformation: Russian state media (TASS) and "War Gonzo" types are circulating rumors of a US-brokered peace deal in March to create a "lame duck" perception of the current AFU defensive effort (0355Z, UNCONFIRMED).
Narrative Diversion: Continued focus on Spanish asylum seekers and US domestic politics (Trump) aims to distract international audiences from the massive strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Immediate (0-2h): High probability of kinetic impact from cruise missiles in Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, or Ivano-Frankivsk.
Short-term (2-6h): BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) phase will begin. Expect RU "double-tap" strikes on repair crews if energy infrastructure is hit.
Operational: Expect a continued KAB surge in the Zaporizhzhia/Vremivka sectors to exploit the "blindness" caused by the Starlink whitelist disruption mentioned in the daily brief.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Tracking of cruise missiles after the Snihurivka waypoint to identify the primary target cluster.
[HIGH] Damage assessment of AFU positions in the Vremivka direction following 11th Guards Air Army strikes.
[MEDIUM] Verification of the "US-Reuters" peace deal claim—determine if this is a pure RU fabrication or a leaked diplomatic baseline.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM) launches from the Black Sea.
