CRUISE MISSILE RELEASE REPORTED: Pro-Russian sources claim Tu-95MS strategic bombers have released a new wave of cruise missiles targeting energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Western Ukraine (0315Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
BURSHTYN UNDER SUSTAINED ATTACK: Explosions have been reported for the sixth time tonight in the vicinity of the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP), Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (0315Z, 0335Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
WESTERN EXPANSION: UAV ingress has expanded into Lviv and Ternopil Oblasts, with specific vectors toward Stryi, Zhydachiv, and Shumsk (0324Z, 0330Z, 0333Z, AFU Air Force/Vanek, HIGH).
KYIV DIRECT THREAT: At least one Shahed-type UAV has bypassed Vasylkiv and is on a direct terminal course for Kyiv city from the south (0320Z, AFU Air Force/Vanek, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA KAB SURGE: Russian tactical aviation has launched a fresh wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in the Zaporizhzhia sector (0329Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
REDKINO BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT: New visual evidence confirms significant fires at the Redkino Research Plant in Tver Oblast following the UAF drone strike (0316Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Sector (Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Ternopil, Chernivtsi)
Activity: A multi-pronged UAV attack is underway. Units are transiting from Chernivtsi toward Ivano-Frankivsk (Verkhovyna vector) and across Ternopil (Shumsk, Buchach). Significant focus is on the Lviv-Stryi corridor, likely targeting gas storage or electrical nodes.
Analysis: The repeated strikes on Burshtyn (6 waves) indicate a "finish-off" tactic to ensure the total destruction of the TPP during peak winter loads (-27°C).
2. Northern Sector (Kyiv, Chernihiv)
Status: Air Defense Engagement.
Activity: UAVs are approaching Kyiv from the south (Vasylkiv). A new ingress was detected in Chernihiv Oblast heading toward Ichnia.
Analysis: The Ichnia vector suggests a focus on military logistics or ammunition storage hubs to disrupt secondary lines of supply.
Status: Active Air Defense / Tactical Bombardment.
Activity: UAVs are transiting Vinnytsia from the south and Kropyvnytskyi from the east. In the South, Zaporizhzhia is under heavy KAB bombardment.
Analysis: The Kropyvnytskyi ingress from the east suggests a coordinated cross-vector attack to confuse radar and saturate local mobile fire groups.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Changes: RU forces are utilizing a "rolling" strike pattern—staggering UAV waves across multiple oblasts to identify gaps in the AD umbrella before the arrival of the cruise missiles reported to be in the air.
Logistics: While the Redkino plant fire degrades RU aerospace chemical supply in the long term, current RU missile operations appear unaffected by recent interdiction.
Strategic Intent: The nationwide air alert (0339Z) confirms RU is attempting a simultaneous multi-domain strike to paralyze the national power grid and municipal heating systems.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: AFU Air Force and mobile fire groups are actively engaging targets across 8+ oblasts.
Strategic Interdiction: The Redkino strike remains the primary proactive success, likely disrupting specialized chemical production for RU military aviation.
Information environment / disinformation
RU State Narrative: TASS is aggressively promoting a narrative of "SBU torture" involving a clergyman (0323Z) to distract from the strategic strike on civilian infrastructure and the Redkino industrial disaster.
Cognitive Ops: Pro-RU channels continue to use "panic-inducing" language regarding nationwide alerts to erode civilian resilience during the pre-dawn hours.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Arrival of cruise missiles in Ukrainian airspace between 0400Z and 0530Z. Primary targets will be the Kyiv energy hub and the Western Ukraine energy cluster (Burshtyn, Stryi).
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated missile strike hitting the Kyiv grid while tactical aviation uses the distraction to execute a large-scale KAB surge on frontline defensive positions in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, potentially exploiting Starlink connectivity issues.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of cruise missile radar signatures and quantity of missiles released by the Tu-95MS wave.
[HIGH] Visual confirmation of damage levels at the Burshtyn TPP to determine remaining generation capacity.
[MEDIUM] Identification of the specific target in the Ichnia (Chernihiv) vector.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of RU aviation sorties from the Sea of Azov/Crimea following the Zaporizhzhia KAB launches.
