STRATEGIC ESCALATION: Monitoring channels report suspected missile launches from Russian Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers. If confirmed, impact is expected within the next 60-90 minutes (0257Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM).
DEEP STRIKE REFINEMENT: The target in Tver Oblast is confirmed as the Redkino Research Plant (Redkinskiy Opytnyy Zavod), a facility known for producing chemical products for the aviation and space industries. Fire is confirmed by regional authorities (0304Z, ASTRA/Governor, HIGH).
BURSHTYN MASS ATTACK: A concentrated group of 12 Shahed-type UAVs is currently approaching Burshtyn (Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast), a significant escalation from the "3 units" reported previously (0250Z, Vanek, HIGH).
KYIV UNDER THREAT: Multiple UAVs have bypassed eastern screens and are vectoring toward Boryspil, Obukhiv, and Vasylkiv, with targets heading directly for Kyiv city (0253Z-0301Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
STAROKON/WESTERN INGRESS: UAV groups are moving toward Starokostiantyniv and Krasyliv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast) on a western course, likely targeting the local airbase (0246Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
FRONT-LINE KAB SURGE: Russian tactical aviation has renewed heavy KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) strikes against Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors (0242Z, 0302Z, 0304Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
RU CAPABILITY UPGRADE: Russian defense industry (TsNIITOCHMASH) has reportedly commenced a new contract for modernized SR.2M 9mm submachine guns, likely intended for specialized Rosgvardia or SOF units (0303Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Sector (Ivano-Frankivsk/Khmelnytskyi)
Status: Critical Infrastructure/Airbase Defense.
Activity: Heavy UAV pressure on the Burshtyn TPP corridor (12 units) and the Starokostiantyniv airbase vicinity.
Analysis: This is a coordinated attempt to suppress UAF tactical aviation assets and further degrade the Western energy cluster during the -27°C cold snap.
2. Northern Sector (Kyiv/Boryspil)
Status: Air Defense Engagement.
Activity: Ingress from the east/southeast targeting the capital's logistics (Boryspil) and military infrastructure (Vasylkiv).
Analysis: This represents a widening of the RU strike profile to fix AD assets in the capital region ahead of the suspected Tu-95/Tu-160 missile wave.
Activity: UAVs continue to transit Vinnytsia toward Zhmerynka. In the South, a Shahed was detected directly over Vilniansk (Zaporizhzhia).
Analysis: RU is maintaining a "continuous threat" environment to prevent the redeployment of mobile fire groups.
4. Eastern Sector (Donbas)
Status: Tactical Aviation Dominance.
Activity: Repeated KAB launches targeting the Donetsk frontline.
Analysis: Combined with earlier reports of FPV strikes on UAF logistics, RU is leveraging the Starlink "blackout" to press tactical advantages on the ground.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Changes: RU is transitioning from a UAV-only saturation phase to a Combined Strategic Strike. The synchronization of massed Shaheds (12+ units at a single node like Burshtyn) with suspected Tu-95/Tu-160 launches indicates a high-complexity operation designed to overwhelm multi-layered AD.
Psychological Warfare: Pro-RU channels (NgP RaZVedka) are signaling "magic tricks" (0309Z), likely referring to the synchronization of the missile wave or a localized electronic warfare (EW) "trick" to mask incoming projectiles.
Logistics: The start of SR.2M production suggests a long-term focus on equipping urban combat or rear-security units with modernized close-quarters weaponry.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Rear Interdiction: The successful strike on the Redkino Research Plant (Tver) demonstrates UAF's ability to identify and hit high-value, dual-use industrial nodes despite RU internal security measures.
AD Posture: AFU Air Force is actively vectoring assets against multiple threats in five directions (Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporizhzhia).
Information environment / disinformation
RU Internal Narrative: Russian state media (TASS) is prioritizing stories on Spanish "spies" and domestic traffic accidents to dilute news of the Redkino plant fire.
Cognitive Ops: RU "magic trick" rhetoric is intended to create anxiety and paralysis among Ukrainian civilian and military observers during the pre-dawn hours.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Arrival of cruise missiles (Kh-101/Kh-555) in Ukrainian airspace within 1-2 hours. Continued UAV saturation to deplete AD interceptors.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A massed missile/UAV strike on the Kyiv energy hub coinciding with a renewed ground push in the Donetsk sector while Starlink connectivity remains intermittent.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of Tu-95MS/Tu-160 cruise missile launches (number of aircraft, quantity of missiles).
[HIGH] Damage assessment of the Redkino Research Plant; determine impact on RU aerospace chemical supply chains.
[HIGH] Impact status of the 12-UAV wave on the Burshtyn TPP.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of Vilniansk (Zaporizhzhia) strike results.
