DEEP STRIKE: TVER CHEMICAL PLANT: Confirmed Ukrainian drone strike on an industrial enterprise/chemical plant in Tver Oblast, Russia, resulting in a fire (0214Z, TASS; 0240Z, Operatsiya Z, HIGH).
WESTERN SECTOR SATURATION: Multiple Shahed-type UAV groups have penetrated deep into Western Ukraine, specifically targeting Burshtyn (at least 3 units overhead) and moving toward Chernivtsi (0232Z-0240Z, AFU Air Force/Vanek, HIGH).
VINNYTSIA UNDER MASSIVE ATTACK: Regional authorities report a "massive" UAV assault on Vinnytsia Oblast, following earlier missile kinetic impacts (0226Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA KAB SURGE: Russian tactical aviation has conducted fresh launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (0237Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
TACTICAL LOGISTICS STRIKE (UNCONFIRMED): Russian "BARS-31" units claim to have destroyed two Ukrainian supply trucks ("Ural") and personnel near Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka using FPV drones (0223Z, Colonelcassad, LOW).
DOMESTIC SECURITY (RU): Russian authorities arrested an aviation security inspector at a Moscow airport on "terrorism financing" charges, indicating heightened internal security measures (0228Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Sector (Ivano-Frankivsk/Lviv/Chernivtsi)
Status: Critical Infrastructure Defense.
Activity: Following the 12-missile Kalibr wave, the RU focus has shifted to UAV saturation. The ingress of drones toward Burshtyn and Chernivtsi suggests a secondary effort to suppress local Air Defense (AD) and target repair crews or substations associated with the Burshtyn TPP.
Analysis: The Southern ingress route for UAVs (from Vinnytsia toward Chernivtsi) indicates an attempt to bypass the primary east-west AD corridors.
2. Central Sector (Vinnytsia/Kropyvnytskyi/Poltava)
Status: Transit and Engagement Zone.
Activity: A "massive" UAV wave is transiting Westward. Single "moped" targets reported over Kropyvnytskyi (0218Z) appear to be part of a broader dispersal tactic intended to fix mobile fire groups (MFGs) across multiple oblasts.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia)
Status: Aerial Bombardment.
Activity: Sustained KAB strikes. This matches the pattern identified in the previous daily report regarding surged aviation activity in the south.
4. Eastern Sector (Kramatorsk/Druzhkivka)
Status: Tactical Attrition.
Activity: Reported RU FPV strikes on Ukrainian logistics. While unconfirmed, the proximity to the frontline suggests RU forces are successfully utilizing the Starlink "blackout" period (per daily report) to deploy short-range FPV assets against Ukrainian re-supply routes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: RU is utilizing a "sandwich" strike profile: Hypersonic/Missile wave -> UAV saturation -> Tactical KABs. The UAVs are likely performing dual roles as kinetic strikers and real-time Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the earlier missile hits in Burshtyn and Vinnytsia.
Information Operations: Pro-RU sources (NgP RaZVedka) are engaging in psychological warfare, taunting Western Ukrainians regarding the loss of power/heating in extreme cold (-27°C) (0236Z).
Logistics Focus: The claim of hitting "Ural" trucks in the Kramatorsk sector points to a localized effort to disrupt UAF sustainment in the Donbas during the current communication disruptions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Value Deep Strikes: UAF continues to prioritize Russian industrial targets in the deep rear. The strike in Tver (Chemical Plant) following the Saratov (Oil Depot) report indicates a deliberate campaign to disrupt Russian dual-use chemical/fuel production.
Air Defense: AFU Air Force continues to track and engage high-volume UAV ingress across five oblasts simultaneously.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Narrative: Priority is being given to "internal stability" stories (drug prices, airport arrests) to mask the impact of Ukrainian deep drone strikes.
Diplomatic Friction: Slovakia’s stated support for a "negotiation format" (0230Z) is being amplified by RU state media to suggest a fracturing of NATO/EU consensus.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV activity over Western Ukraine through dawn. Expected rise in regional blackouts in the Ivano-Frankivsk and Vinnytsia regions as damage to energy infrastructure is assessed.
MDCOA: Possible Russian ground-probing attacks in the Zaporizhzhia or Kramatorsk sectors to exploit the AD focus on the missile/UAV wave and the tactical confusion caused by the Starlink service disruption.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of damage at the Burshtyn TPP following the combined missile/UAV assault.
[HIGH] Assessment of the "Chemical Plant" in Tver—specifically, if it supports explosives or rocket motor propellant production (e.g., Redkino Research Plant).
[MEDIUM] Verification of the UAF logistics losses near Kramatorsk to determine if RU drone units have successfully mitigated the Starlink "Purge."
