MASSIVE UAV SATURATION: Approximately 200 "Shahed" UAVs are currently in Ukrainian airspace, with new groups continuing to enter (2342Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
NEW VECTOR (KROPYVNYTSKYI): UAV threats identified approaching Kropyvnytskyi from the East, expanding the geographic scope of the current swarm (0010Z, AFU, HIGH).
VINNYTSIA AXIS: UAVs are currently transiting toward Bershad, Ladyzhyn, and Haisyn from the North-East (0003Z, AFU, HIGH).
ZNPP DIPLOMATIC REJECTION: Russia has reportedly refused a US proposal to place the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) under full control/monitoring (2348Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM).
POW PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATION: Pro-Russian sources (Colonelcassad) released a video "testimony" from a released Russian serviceman regarding his time in Ukrainian captivity, continuing a coordinated nightly effort to influence international and domestic sentiment (0003Z, Colonelcassad, LOW/PROPAGANDA).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Central Sector (Kropyvnytskyi/Dnipropetrovsk/Poltava)
Kropyvnytskyi: The detection of UAVs approaching from the East (0010Z) suggests a multi-directional pincer on central logistics nodes. Kropyvnytskyi serves as a critical rail and road junction; strikes here would disrupt the movement of reserves to the eastern front.
Poltava/Samar: Previous reports of UAV convergence on Poltava (2329Z) remain active. This area is likely being used as a holding pattern to saturate local air defenses.
2. Western Sector (Vinnytsia Oblast)
Ladyzhyn/Gaisyn: The North-East to South-West vector (0003Z) places the Ladyzhyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP) at high risk. This aligns with the "freeze and starve" strategy identified in the previous daily report.
Sumy/Chernihiv: These regions continue to serve as the primary "launch corridor" for the ~200 UAVs currently active. The "continuous entry" of new units (2342Z) indicates RU sustainment of this corridor despite UAF electronic warfare (EW) efforts.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Saturation Tactics: The deployment of ~200 Shaheds is an extraordinary volume intended to force UAF Air Defense (AD) into a state of total saturation.
Objective: Exhaust Mobile Fire Group (MFG) ammunition and identify gaps in the radar net ahead of the incoming Tu-160/Tu-95/Tu-22M3 strategic bomber wave.
Strategic Aviation Update: With the bomber fleet previously confirmed airborne, the current UAV swarm is likely timed to reach maximum density over key targets exactly as missile salvos enter Ukrainian airspace (estimated arrival 0130Z-0400Z).
ZNPP Posture: The rejection of the US proposal regarding ZNPP (2348Z) signals a Russian intent to maintain the facility as a "nuclear shield" and a point of energy blackmail as the winter offensive intensifies.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AF is actively managing target prioritization across multiple oblasts. Information from "Nikolaevsky Vanek" (0008Z) indicates high-tempo coordination of MFG assets.
Cyber/Tech Domain: The "Starlink Purge" mentioned in the daily report remains a critical advantage, likely hindering RU frontline drone operators' ability to coordinate with these deep-strike UAV groups.
Information environment / disinformation
POW Narrative Exploitation: The 0003Z video from Colonelcassad is the second POW-related propaganda piece in under an hour. This suggests a pre-planned information operation designed to create a "moral equivalence" narrative to counter expected international condemnation of the ongoing massed air strikes.
Strategic Narrative: RU is framing the ZNPP rejection as a defense of "sovereignty" to satisfy domestic audiences while maintaining pressure on Western diplomatic channels.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): A synchronized missile strike (Kh-101/555 and Kh-22) hitting Central and Western Ukraine between 0130Z and 0500Z. Primary targets: Ladyzhyn TPP, Kropyvnytskyi logistics nodes, and Kyiv energy infrastructure.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Use of Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles to strike high-value command centers while AD is overwhelmed by the 200+ Shaheds.
Tactical Alert: Personnel in Vinnytsia (Ladyzhyn area) and Kropyvnytskyi should remain in hardened shelters; the volume of incoming UAVs increases the probability of "leakers" or debris-related damage.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Immediate confirmation of missile launches (Kh-101/555) from Tu-160/Tu-95 fleet.
[HIGH] Satellite or ELINT confirmation of MiG-31K (Kinzhal carrier) activity at Savasleyka or Machulishchy.
[MEDIUM] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Roshen warehouse in Yahotyn to determine if RU is successfully shifting focus to food/civilian logistics.
