STRATEGIC AVIATION ESCALATION: Takeoff of Tu-22M3 (Kh-22 carriers) and Tu-160 "Blackjack" strategic bombers confirmed. Tu-160s launched from Ukrainka airbase (2315Z, 2339Z, RBK-UA/Tsaplienko, HIGH).
LOGISTICS STRIKE (KYIV OBLAST): A Shahed UAV struck a Roshen warehouse in Yahotyn; video evidence confirms a significant fire (2312Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM-HIGH).
MULTI-VECTOR UAV SATURATION: "Dozens of groups" are entering via Chernihiv and Sumy toward Poltava, while separate groups are active in Vinnytsia (heading SE) and toward Kharkiv and Samar (2315Z, 2329Z, 2338Z, 2339Z, AFU, HIGH).
POW PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATION: Pro-Russian channels released a "testimony" from a captured 47th Mech Bde junior sergeant (Nikolay Shkiranda) to discredit mobilization efforts (2335Z, Colonelcassad, LOW/PROPAGANDA).
Sumy/Chernihiv: Remains the primary "pipeline" for UAV entry. "Dozens of groups" are currently transiting toward Poltava (2329Z). This supports the earlier assessment of RU intent to saturate central AD.
Kharkiv: New UAV threat detected approaching from the South-East (2338Z), indicating RU is utilizing launch sites in the Belgorod/Donetsk border regions to create a pincer effect on the city.
2. Central Sector (Kyiv/Poltava/Dnipropetrovsk)
Yahotyn (Kyiv Oblast): Confirmed kinetic impact on food storage infrastructure (Roshen warehouse). This suggests a shift or expansion in targeting to include civilian logistics and supply chains.
Poltava/Samar: The UAV swarm is now converging on Poltava (2329Z) and the Samar (formerly Novomoskovsk) area (2339Z). This is likely intended to fix AD units defending the critical Dnipro-Pavlohrad logistics hub.
3. Western Sector (Vinnytsia/Khmelnytskyi)
Vinnytsia: UAVs are currently transiting the SE portion of the oblast toward Teplyk/Bershad (2315Z). This vector often precedes strikes on energy infrastructure in the Ladyzhyn area or transit toward the Odesa/Moldova border region.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation COA: The introduction of Tu-22M3s and Tu-160s alongside the previously detected Tu-95s indicates a massed, multi-regiment missile strike.
Tu-22M3s likely target high-value hardened targets or naval infrastructure with Kh-22/32 supersonic missiles (difficult to intercept).
Tu-160s provide a larger payload capacity for Kh-101/555 cruise missiles compared to the Tu-95.
UAV Integration: The widespread distribution of UAVs (from Vinnytsia to Kharkiv) is designed to force the UAF to disperse Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs), creating "lanes" for the incoming missile wave.
Logistics: The strike in Yahotyn (2312Z) may indicate a systematic effort to degrade food and dual-use supply reserves as part of the broader "freeze and starve" winter strategy.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking multiple swarm vectors. Electronic Warfare (EW) is likely being prioritized in the Samar and Poltava sectors to disrupt UAV navigation.
Information Counter-Measures: Government sources continue to highlight international support (e.g., US-India trade news reported by RU media to suggest isolation, though UAF perspective remains focused on Western sanctions coordination).
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Sabotage: The Shkiranda video (2335Z) is a textbook RU hybrid operation. By framing a NCO from a prestigious unit (47th Bde) as a victim of "forced mobilization," RU aims to fuel domestic unrest within Ukraine during a period of high kinetic stress (the air raids).
International Narrative: TASS reporting on the $500B US-India deal (2329Z) is being used in the RU domestic space to argue that US focus is shifting away from Ukraine toward Indo-Pacific economic competition.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Arrival of a large-scale missile salvo (Kh-101/555/22) between 0100Z and 0400Z. Primary targets will be energy infrastructure and logistics hubs in Central and Western Ukraine.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Simultaneous missile strikes coordinated with the reported ground demining in Sumy (from 2303Z sitrep), signaling a cross-border raid while AD is saturated.
Tactical Alert: Units in Dnipropetrovsk (Samar) and Poltava should expect imminent kinetic activity.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm launch of missiles from Tu-160/Tu-22M3. Determine if Kh-47M2 Kinzhal carriers (MiG-31K) have also scrambled.
[HIGH] Assess damage at Yahotyn (Roshen warehouse) to determine if RU is using high-precision munitions for logistics strikes or if this was a "leaker" UAV hit.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Indian official channels to verify the TASS report on the US-India deal to counter RU "isolation" narratives.
